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The Tony G draft

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The Tony G draft

Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 16, 2004 9:15 pm

Most players who prescribe to the Tony Gonzalez or bust theory look to acquire him in Round 3 in most 12-team drafts. I've been doing a few mock drafts at the same position (5th position) and have tried a draft twice by taking Tony G in the third round and then a couple times taking a top 10 ranked WR in Round 2 or 3.

<b> Based on my own personal rankings,</b> I am seeing a <u>35-point drop</u> in overall projected fantasy production when I take Tony G early instead of say an Alge Crumpler or Boo Williams in Rounds 7 or 8. What I have seen with taking Gonzalez early is that I drop a tier in WR (ex. Derrick Mason vs. Koren Robinson) and a tier in QB (Steve McNair vs. Tom Brady) on average.

Has anyone else researched this? I typically do not take a TE early but was considering the Tony G draft. Before you say it, Tony Gonzalez will NOT slip to Round 4 in our drafts, he goes in Round 3 like clockwork.
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Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 16, 2004 9:21 pm

Oh yea, in all cases I have drafted RB's in the first two rounds with the 5th position in draft order. I am scared of not getting two RB's in the first three rounds since I would be looking at the likes of Thomas Jones or Marcel Shipp staring at me about then. Rookies JJ and KJ seem to have moved up to Rounds 3 and 4 now.
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Postby KingGhidra » Fri Jul 16, 2004 9:34 pm

Well the thing is...

Once you get past the top 4-5 WRs, you drop a tier. In fact, the next 20 WRs or so all have very similar stats. Half of those 20 are nobodies who came out of nowhere. Drafters who take a Tony G in round three are trying to get top consistent performers at their position. The hallmark of a top fantasy team is consistency. The more consistent your studs are, the better your team is at fighting off lucky opponent weeks in the H2H format. Tony G is about as consistent as they come for TEs. When the next top 10 WR can come out of any of your crop of hopefuls, it makes a certain sense to take him there then make good WR choices later in the draft.

I'm not sure why it's affecting your QB. You can draft McNair in the 5th no matter who you take in the 3rd. You might be "scared" of only having 1 WR after 5 rounds. Take a look at the top 20 list from 2003. I count at least 9 that were most likely taken after round 5.
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Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 16, 2004 10:31 pm

KG -

You're on the money, I have been afraid of exiting the 5th round with only 1 WR. However, now that you mention it, I'm not sure why. As you mentioned, there is not as tier drop in Round 5 for WR's as there typically is for QB's (#'s 5-8 vs. 9-12). Let me try it again with some different tactics and see if I like the results better.
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Postby MeShawn » Sat Jul 17, 2004 9:03 am

I might take Tony in the late 3rd, but most likely in the early 4th, if he's still available.
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Postby hwkyetkd11 » Sat Jul 17, 2004 9:08 am

okay if you look at the WR who ended in the top 20 last year, a bunch of them were not projected to do so. It is easy to find a sleeper later in the draft. but at TE the top were expected to be the top and showed why. With Wr like s. moss, A. Boldin and S. Smith doing what they did last year it is easy to find a Wr liek that this year. say like Burress, Robinson or Stallworth
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Postby roninmedia » Sat Jul 17, 2004 10:47 am

I would rather take a WR like a third round than take Gonzo. I will take him if he somehow falls to me in the 4th. In a 12 team league, I managed to grab Gonzo with the #40 pick in a 12 team league.
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Postby Wolverine » Sat Jul 17, 2004 11:03 am

In my office pool, Gonzo will not hold out until the 40th pick, I see him going around 28-30 which is where I am drafting in Round 3. The team in our league that has had Gonzo the past two years has had a track record of being a more well-rounded squad and tougher to beat from week-to-week.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Sat Jul 17, 2004 1:31 pm

If i get a late round pick, I have tried out this strategy in mocks. Ill get say Edge, and one of the 2nd tier backs that slips through. 3rd round Ill get Gonzo, and then one of the WRs left. Maybe D Jax in the early-mid fourth will be there. Gonzo is basically a good #2 WR on your team, just like Jackson. With 2 solid #2 WR type numbers you can afford to be a little weak in the WR core, and maybe get some high potential picks in the later rounds. You also won't have to worry about the TE posistion from week to week.
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