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Why Ricky?

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Why Ricky?

Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:09 am

Reading recent posts, the one thing that surprises me (other than the almost religious overvaluing of Portis) is the respect shown for Ricky. Why would anyone have him in the top ten RBs? Here are some facts to consider:

1) Nobody had more carries than him last year. Nobody had more carries than him the year before that. Over the past three years nobody comes close to his total carries.

2) The woefully incompetent Miami O-line has been completely overhauled (with the exception of T Wade Smith). But is it better? Ah…no.

3) Ricky’s yds/carry dropped from 4.8 to 3.5 last year. That’s the same as Tim Couch. Sorry about the QB comparison but no other top RB has a low enough avg. for comparison (unless you still consider Eddie George a top RB).


Forget about him improving on last year’s numbers, I see him getting worse. Please don’t mention David Boston. When he is not admiring himself in the mirror he will be complaining about Feely/Fielder not being able to get the ball to him and will start sulking. Ricky is no longer a top ten back.
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Re: Why Ricky?

Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:31 am

Mookie4ever wrote:Why would anyone have him in the top ten RBs?


Errr, maybe because he's been a top 10 back every year he's been a starter?

Mookie4ever wrote:Nobody had more carries than him last year. Nobody had more carries than him the year before that. Over the past three years nobody comes close to his total carries.


More carries=more yards=more td chances. The whole "wearing down" thing is overhyped. He's what, 26?

Everyone's favorite age for RB's to decline is 30. It's not like he's had more carries in his career than the guys out there that are 28/29...

In fantasy football, carries are a good thing..

Mookie4ever wrote:The woefully incompetent Miami O-line has been completely overhauled (with the exception of T Wade Smith). But is it better? Ah…no.


You said it yourself, "The woefully incompetent Miami O-line has been completely overhauled."

Sure, maybe it's not better, but who knows, maybe it is. Even if it's not, it was as bad as it can get last year, and he still finished with top 10 production.

Mookie4ever wrote:Please don’t mention David Boston.


Well, as much as I hate to do it, and as much as I agree with you about Boston...new QB, new offensive coordinator. Maybe they will get a passing game going and Ricky will take off. Maybe they won't, but once again, they had no passing game last year and Ricky still finished with top 10 numbers.

Again, the O-line and offense have been revamped. Maybe it'll be better, but it certainly can't get any worse. He's put up top 10 numbers every year he's been a starter, and he has shown his upside to be very very high.

The problem people had with Ricky wasn't that he didn't put up top 10 numbers last year, it's that he didn't put up top 2 numbers, since that's where he was being drafted.

Just a fun little fact for you since I know you like Mr. Alexander so much:

Ricky 2002: 2200yds 17 TD's
Alexander 2002: 1600yds 18 TD's

Ricky 2003: 1750yds 10 TD's
Alexander 2003: 1600yds 16 TD's

In terms of fantasy points, Alexander's 2003 season was about 21 points better than Ricky's.

Now, I seem to recall a certain thread where you were making a big deal out of Portis having "only" 175 yds more than Alexander. 175yds=17.5 pts.

So, the difference between Portis and Alexander in 2003 is roughly the same as the difference between Alexander and Ricky in 2003, yet you're trying to claim Alexander as being a better pick than Portis (and hence putting Alexander in the top 5) while at the same time trying to argue that Ricky should be placed outside the top 10?

Like you said, Ricky had a 3.5ypc last year, that's pretty much as low as it gets for a starting RB, so even at worse case and he stays the same, he's just as close to Alexander as Alexander is to Portis.

Now, of course, we've all seen Ricky's upside.
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Re: Why Ricky?

Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:00 am

Free Bagel wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Why would anyone have him in the top ten RBs?


Errr, maybe because he's been a top 10 back every year he's been a starter?


Bagel Dude - I am looking ahead. Ricky is dropping like a stone and SA is going up. Many factors work in SA's favour, none in RIcky's

Bagel wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Nobody had more carries than him last year. Nobody had more carries than him the year before that. Over the past three years nobody comes close to his total carries.


More carries=more yards=more td chances. The whole "wearing down" thing is overhyped. He's what, 26?


More carries=more yards=more TD chance??

you would think so, but not with Ricky

2002 383 carries 1,853 yds 16 TDs
2003 392 carries 1,372 yds 9 TDs

so Ricky got more carries but fewer yards and fewer TDs


Bagel wrote:Everyone's favorite age for RB's to decline is 30. It's not like he's had more carries in his career than the guys out there that are 28/29...


Let's compare him to the other top backs - he has by far the most carries.

Ricky 26 - 1,589 carries
Priest 30 - 1,419
Edge 25 - 1,494
Taylor 26 - 1,377
Green 26 - 1,269
LT 24 - 1,024
JLew 24 - 1,004
SA 26 - 994
Deuce 25 - 692
Portis 22 - 563

Durability is a concern for Edge and Taylor - shouldn't it start to be a problem for Ricky as well?

Ricky is no longer a top ten back and is going the way of Eddie George who at this stage of his career had one more 14 TD season in him then he hit the wall. It looks to me as if Ricky hit the wall a little sooner than Eddie.
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Postby Buckychudd » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:10 am

Umm, maybe because he finished 8th, 2nd, and 9th over the last 3 years.

Code: Select all
Year     Value     Pos. Rank     Overall Rank
--------------------------------------------------
1999       0            27             100
2000      36            18             44
2001      83             8             14
2002      171            2              2
2003      90             9             13
--------------------------------------------------


Seems like a safe bet for a top 10 to me.

Who are you going to rank ahead of him? Barlow? Rudi? Faulk? Henry? S Davis? ummm no.
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Re: Why Ricky?

Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:20 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Why would anyone have him in the top ten RBs?


Errr, maybe because he's been a top 10 back every year he's been a starter?


Bagel Dude - I am looking ahead.


I understand that you're looking ahead. But generally, when you take a guy that's finished in the top 10 four out of the last four seasons and make a statement like "Why would anyone rank him in the top 10," you generally need a pretty large reason for it. Something like he's coming off an ACL injury, or they just lost both their starting WR's and their QB as well as their pro-bowl offensive linemen.

Mookie4ever wrote:Ricky is dropping like a stone and SA is going up. Many factors work in SA's favour, none in RIcky's


I don't know why you're so content to believe that SA is going to improve when he comes back with the exact same offense he's had and has pretty much maxed out on 1 yd TD's. The likelihood that he'll get MORE than 10 one yard TD runs is not high, while at the same time you say Ricky is dropping like a stone due to one season in which he finished top 10, despite the fact that his BEST season actually came 1 year after his WORST season. So, using your same logic, Ricky would have been a bust in 2002 at the #9 pick (where he was taken). It's too bad he finished #2 overall that year...

Mookie4ever wrote:
Bagel wrote:Everyone's favorite age for RB's to decline is 30. It's not like he's had more carries in his career than the guys out there that are 28/29...


Let's compare him to the other top backs - he has by far the most carries.

Ricky 26 - 1,589 carries
Priest 30 - 1,419
Edge 25 - 1,494
Taylor 26 - 1,377
Green 26 - 1,269


First off, I wouldn't consider that "by far the most carries." I highly doubt that 100-200 carries is going to make much of a difference. That's well less than a year's worth of carries, and even adding a full year to his age would still put him 3 years under the dreaded 30 year old mark. Hardly anything worthy of kicking a guy that's finished top 10 every year out of the top 10.

Again, generally when you kick a guy out of the top 10 that has finished in the top 10 every year it's because they had a great offense and lost it, or had a great o-line and lost it, something to the effect of your buddy Alexander that benefits from a great surrounding offense losing that surrounding offense. Ricky never had that in the first place, so he can't lose it.

Ricky has already hit the bottom of the barrel in terms of the guys surrounding him. It's not like he was formerly on an offensive powerhouse and now he's not. He was formerly on an inept offense and now its' changed. If it's inept again then so what, it's the same thing he had last year and the year before that and he still put up top 10 numbers. The offense has very little room to get worse, but alot of room to improve. Whether you believe that or not doesn't matter, as there's certainly nothing there that has had such a great effect as to kick him out of the top 10 despite him finishing top 10 every year he's been a starter. I'd be interested to find out who'd you like to replace him in the top 10 with, as I'm sure you'll have a difficult time finding anyone with less baggage.
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Re: Why Ricky?

Postby KingGhidra » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:29 am

I have no idea why Ricky has a devoted following. Nothing about Miami has gotten better in any tangible form. We'll see how Boston, Feeley and a brand new offensive line work out.

Free Bagel wrote:
Ricky 2002: 2200yds 17 TD's
Alexander 2002: 1600yds 18 TD's

Ricky 2003: 1750yds 10 TD's
Alexander 2003: 1600yds 16 TD's


You have really questionable math sometimes Bagel. Ricky and SA both have ~1720 total yards in 2003. Not a huge difference, but 30 points is 30 points.


Like you said, Ricky had a 3.5ypc last year, that's pretty much as low as it gets for a starting RB, so even at worse case and he stays the same, he's just as close to Alexander as Alexander is to Portis.


And Miami has some ways to go to before you could call it comparable to Seattle's offense. A half-decent o-line would be a start.


Now, of course, we've all seen Ricky's upside.


Which doesn't mean we'll ever see it again. His upside (or one outlier year) is the only thing keeping him top 10 right now and in some cases the 6th or 7th pick.
Last edited by KingGhidra on Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:33 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:29 am

Buckychudd wrote:Umm, maybe because he finished 8th, 2nd, and 9th over the last 3 years.

Code: Select all
Year     Value     Pos. Rank     Overall Rank
--------------------------------------------------
1999       0            27             100
2000      36            18             44
2001      83             8             14
2002      171            2              2
2003      90             9             13
--------------------------------------------------


Seems like a safe bet for a top 10 to me.

Who are you going to rank ahead of him? Barlow? Rudi? Faulk? Henry? S Davis? ummm no.


Do you think that he will be able to increase his yds or his TDs?

If so, why should he be better? I gave my reasons for him being worse, I would like to hear your reasons as to why he will do better or even the same.
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Re: Why Ricky?

Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:37 am

Free Bagel wrote:I'd be interested to find out who'd you like to replace him in the top 10 with, as I'm sure you'll have a difficult time finding anyone with less baggage.


Twelve RBs whom I predict will be better than Ricky this year (not really in any order):

Priest
Green
LT
SA
Portis
Deuce
Lewis
Taylor
Dillon
Barlow
Henry
Edge

At the end of the year, of course Ricky may be a top ten back. He has little upside however. In the words of Bam Bam Bigelow (sadly, recently retired Bam Bam), Ricky's chances of cracking the top 5 are "slim to none and Slim just left town".
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:45 am

KingGhidra wrote:And Miami has some ways to go to before you could call it comparable to Seattle's offense. A half-decent o-line would be a start.


C'mon dude, don't make me bring out the re-read comment. No where did a say Miam's offense was going to be anywhere near what Seattle's is, you completely missed my point.

My point is that generally if you want to take someone that has been a consistent top 10 back out of the top 10 you have to have a big, detrimental change.

Give Alexander a new QB and two new WR's to replace the ones Seattle had and you could make a legitimate case to drop Alexander in the rankings.

Give Jamal Lewis a new QB and two new WR's to replace the ones Baltimore had and you can't say that Jamal Lewis won't come close to touching his past production, because that QB and those WR's already sucked anyway.

Same goes for Ricky. He's already HAD a horrible line, and already HAD a crappy offense around him, and he still put up top 10 numbers.

Take a top 10 player and then take away his great surrounding offense and maybe that player isn't top 10 anymore. Take a top 10 player and take away his ALREADY CRAPPY offense and what difference does it make?


Mookie4ever wrote:At the end of the year, of course Ricky may be a top ten back. He has little upside however.


I don't see how you can say that. Ricky has ALREADY shown his upside and is only 1 year removed from it. His offense and O-line sucked at the time, so he's proven he can put up great numbers with a crappy surrounding cast? How? BECAUSE HE'S ALREADY DONE IT.


The offense and O-line were as bad as they can get last year. There's much more room for them to go up than down.


I still have yet to see a good reason to knock Ricky out of the top 10. Saying the people around him sucks is a joke because THEY ALREADY SUCKED BEFORE AND HE DID FINE. Saying people will stack the box is a joke because THEY ALREADY STACKED THE BOX BEFORE AND HE DID FINE.

The carries arguement doesn't hold any weight either since he has less than a season's worth of extra carries over several other top RB's and even adding a full year to his age puts him at 27, in which a RB is still considered to be in his prime.
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Postby CC » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:55 am

Much like the Portis vs. Alexander debate, I'm going to side with FB. I have Ricky as the 6th back off the board, and most people consider that too high. However the likelyhood that a back of Ricky's calibre will only rush for 3.5 ypc again is pretty slim, whereas he has proven himself a durable and consistent back over the last 2 years in Miami.

I don't want to get sucked into another huge debate as I have Ricky ahead of Alexander on my draft board, I won't post again on this topic.
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