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Postby MadScott » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:13 am

steelerfan04 wrote:
MadScott wrote:Interesting point bagel. Just like any other stat, you can make of it what you wish. One kind of has to take into account the situation that a team was in, did it play against the Sisters of the Poor (SD), were there injuries to other players that scewed these numbers, etc.... That being said, it is a pretty decent indicator of folks to at least look out for. A player like J. Walker I can see having a big upside but I do kind of doubt an M. Robinson.


The only reason Robinson is on there is that 4 TD game he had against Seattle.


Bingo, which speaks exactly to my point. Numbers can always be twisted to say what you want them too. I look at a player like S. Moss who constantly emerged through the year and put much more stock in him than Robinson and his 4 TD flash in the pan.
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Postby Flux » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:50 am

MadScott wrote:
steelerfan04 wrote:
MadScott wrote:Interesting point bagel. Just like any other stat, you can make of it what you wish. One kind of has to take into account the situation that a team was in, did it play against the Sisters of the Poor (SD), were there injuries to other players that scewed these numbers, etc.... That being said, it is a pretty decent indicator of folks to at least look out for. A player like J. Walker I can see having a big upside but I do kind of doubt an M. Robinson.


The only reason Robinson is on there is that 4 TD game he had against Seattle.


Bingo, which speaks exactly to my point. Numbers can always be twisted to say what you want them too. I look at a player like S. Moss who constantly emerged through the year and put much more stock in him than Robinson and his 4 TD flash in the pan.


nobody is saying Robinson is a top 10 guy....

And S. Moss really is no sure thing, he didnt score a TD in his last 5 games and didnt get 100 yds in his last 7...
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Postby MadScott » Sat Jul 24, 2004 2:03 am

Flux wrote:nobody is saying Robinson is a top 10 guy....

And S. Moss really is no sure thing, he didnt score a TD in his last 5 games and didnt get 100 yds in his last 7...


Easy there Flux. I realize that no one is saying that Robinson is a top 10 WR. You did post the top 10 at their positions for the last 6 weeks of the season and he did show up on the list. The thread started out about spotting trends or players on the rise based on their second half production and I was simply pointing out how the numbers don't always correspond to what is really going on.

Agreed that Moss isn't a lock for anything either.
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Postby Flux » Sat Jul 24, 2004 2:10 am

MadScott wrote:
Flux wrote:nobody is saying Robinson is a top 10 guy....

And S. Moss really is no sure thing, he didnt score a TD in his last 5 games and didnt get 100 yds in his last 7...


Easy there Flux. I realize that no one is saying that Robinson is a top 10 WR. You did post the top 10 at their positions for the last 6 weeks of the season and he did show up on the list. The thread started out about spotting trends or players on the rise based on their second half production and I was simply pointing out how the numbers don't always correspond to what is really going on.

Agreed that Moss isn't a lock for anything either.


I wasnt hating on you, i was just pointing out that S. Moss hadnt "constantly emerged through the year" is all.
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Postby MadScott » Sat Jul 24, 2004 2:13 am

Flux wrote:I wasnt hating on you, i was just pointing out that S. Moss hadnt "constantly emerged through the year" is all.


I got you dog. I guess constantly emerged wasn't the best term to use. I grabbed him early on the WW last season and rode him through that incredible 10 game stretch that he had. Exciting player but I do believe folks have him a little overhyped this year.
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Postby Smizzy » Sat Jul 24, 2004 2:15 am

Let's not forget that moss was working with Testaverde and with no #2 WR to help him out & when Chad came back they never really clicked.
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Postby MadScott » Sat Jul 24, 2004 2:17 am

Smizzy wrote:Let's not forget that moss was working with Testaverde and with no #2 WR to help him out & when Chad came back they never really clicked.


Which is exactly why there should be concern for people that draft him. What if McCairns becomes his go to guy?
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Postby Smizzy » Sat Jul 24, 2004 2:23 am

MadScott wrote:
Smizzy wrote:Let's not forget that moss was working with Testaverde and with no #2 WR to help him out & when Chad came back they never really clicked.


Which is exactly why there should be concern for people that draft him. What if McCairns becomes his go to guy?

They didn't click because the timing was off....Moss will have a monster year.
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Postby Free Bagel » Sat Jul 24, 2004 6:46 am

Just another couple examples of the thing I posted earlier about a good 2nd half actually being a reverse indicator.

Two guys that had great 2nd halves in 2002 were Koren Robinson and Plaxico Buress.

In the first half of the season, they COMBINED for a whopping 2 games with 90+ yards. In the 2nd half, they combined for 11 games with 90+ yards.

This led to high draft positions for both in 2003, and as we all now know, they completely flopped.
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Greed and Sleepers

Postby DraftDodger » Sat Jul 24, 2004 7:59 am

I'm greedy. I want the ultimate breakout players--the sleepers. A guy like Santana Moss, you're not going to get him near the end of the draft, and wherever you rate him he can move up or slide down a bit. Sure, most of the highly rated players can do the same, but at least they have consistent stats to show how they 'ought' to perform.

No, if I'm looking for a 'breakout' player, I want a guy who did what Eric Moulds did when he broke out. He showed promise the year before, then Drew Bledsoe comes to town and wham bam thank you maam Moulds is solid gold. Which leads me to an anology ...

Finding a potential breakout player is like solving a crime ... we're looking for motive, opportunity, and means.

Motive. This kid wants to play. He'll go over the middle against the best safeties in the game, he'll plow into a tackler, he'll stand tough in the pocket (or, conversely, will run all over the field if he has the mobility) ... he'll do anything to get in the game and try to make plays.

Opportunity. Even the likes of Steve Young sits on the bench behind Joe Montana until injuries or old age provide an opening to crack the lineup. The best player in the game can rot away on the bench, and you have to realize that this can be as much a matter of coaching pigheadedness as anything else. A potential breakout player has to have opportunity. Bulger would be sitting on the bench if Warner hadn't been injured (and then Bulger would have returned to the bench if Warner hadn't sucked when he came back.) Look for those guys that coaches bend over backwards to put in the game. Look for those guys who make maybe two plays in three games and they're touchdowns. A breakout sleeper has to have an opportunity to play. For this reason, it's probably easier for a wide receiver to break out than for any other (offensive) player.

Means. What does the player bring physically to the game? Can he outjump the best cover men? Can he scramble? Does he have the moves of E. Dickerson or Bo Jackson (IMHO the best runner of modern times before his injuries)? Does he make one-handed catches look like the norm? Is he good for big gains? Can he manhandle other players aside?

Consider the motive, opportunity, and means, and you will find your culprit ... er, breakout sleeper.
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