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TE's the key

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Postby BlitzBoyz » Sat Jul 24, 2004 4:21 pm

Gonzo in the 3rd will give you points roughly equivalent to a #2 WR. After that, it's anybody's guess. Heap is ok, Shockey has a ton of talent (if his foot is sound, and I think the jury is still out on that). Winslow is a talented kid, but he's a rookie and a lot of folks are reaching for him too early.

Witten or Eron Kinney are my picks for late round TE's, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over a sleeper TE if you can't get Gonzo.
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Postby stomperrob » Sat Jul 24, 2004 7:14 pm

Unless you get one of the top one's, TE's don't score enough pts/game to make much impact. To use Yahoo's scoring system for those of us cheapskates who like freebies - last year Gonzalez had 98 fantasy points followed by Heap at 53, Boo Williams at 46, Mili at 42, and McMichaels at 41 - average that for 16 games and ya don't get many pts/game.
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Postby DraftDodger » Sat Jul 24, 2004 10:34 pm

Whether or not to draft Gonzo very early or another TE fairly early depends on your team building strategy.

It's somewhat analagous to NFL pass defenses, where you can play zone or man.

Are you simply trying to build a team with a high average weekly score, or are you trying to beat your opponent 'man for man' at each position? The first approach will likely result in a solid team with better than .500 wins but it will also pretty much guarantee you a few losses when your doormat WR squares off against Marvin Harrison and your scoreless TE faces Gonzo. A huge deficit at one or two positions can seal your fate.

Fantasy football drafting, like NFL drafting, favors equally balanced teams. It's only player savvy, injuries, and luck that factor in and separate the winners from the losers. Unless you're playing in the Mortimer Snerd league, you're not going to grab Priest Holmes, LT, Marvin Harrison, and Peyton Manning with your first four picks. In fact, it may seem impossible to build a better man-to-man team than the next guy. But there's something I haven't mentioned yet.

Matchups.

Remember, your guys have to beat their guys on particular weeks of the NFL season. Every week isn't a feast for even the best players. With a little foresight and some defensive drafting, maybe your guys will be the best each week.

Some things to avoid in the draft:

If possible, don't allow someone to draft the one-two punch of Manning/Harrison. That alone is a virtual lock in many games. If a player reaches for one of them in the first round, you can bet he or she will go for the other in the second round. If you can block that move, block it.

Avoid having more than one of your main starters out in any given week. If you have to bench your #1 RB and your #2 WR you'll have little to no chance of matching up to the competition. Likewise, if you can accept a slightly lesser pick to screw with your competition, do it. For example, LawDawgs play you in Week 6 and they've already drafted a player who's out that week. They need a WR. They pick after you. The best WR left on the board has a bye in Week 6., the 2nd best in Week 9. If you draft the 2nd best guy and LawDawgs takes the bait, you'll have a two-starter advantage in your Week 6 matchup, an almost certain win. [Of course, this is assuming a leisurely draft, not an auto draft where you won't know til it's over who's getting which players/]

Definitely factor matchups and byes into your drafting. If you pay attention to these things, you'll at least have a good idea of what the competition is trying to do.
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Postby aussieboy » Sat Jul 24, 2004 10:38 pm

For example, LawDawgs play you in Week 6 and they've already drafted a player who's out that week. They need a WR. They pick after you. The best WR left on the board has a bye in Week 6., the 2nd best in Week 9. If you draft the 2nd best guy and LawDawgs takes the bait, you'll have a two-starter advantage in your Week 6 matchup, an almost certain win.



That's a cool idea. Never even thought of that.
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Postby MadScott » Sat Jul 24, 2004 11:27 pm

Great post DraftDodger! ;-D

Nice strategy on blocking guys on the 1-2 punch. The baiting could be interesting as well, the thing is it's somewhat hard to predict exactly what everyone's team will stack up like until the players start playing.
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Postby portisfan24 » Sun Jul 25, 2004 1:24 am

I won a two te league last year with jim kleinsasser and bubba franks to start, but i picked up boo williams off the wire. if gonzo is there at the end of the fourth ill take him, otherwise ill wait until the 10th
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Postby Paladyr » Sun Jul 25, 2004 9:56 am

i had the option of taking steve smith/chad johnson or gonzo, and took gonzo. After that I got koren robinson. I think robinson + gonzo is better than smith/johnson and heap/boo.

You just have to consider your other options.

As far as drafting to win one matchup through the year, I think that's a bit much. You draft the best players and try to make sure you have players to cover bye weeks. You just need a good enough record to get into the playoffs so no need to draft a lesser player just so you can win 1 week.
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Postby FourthandLong » Sun Jul 25, 2004 10:19 am

shockey should be considered the third of teh heap, gonzo trio in non yardage leagues cuz he gets the yards, just not the endzone glory. remember, in his rookie year, he lead all te's in yards...yes even gonzo.

draft dodger that was a real good post. but if you are playing the matchup game, theres a lot of other things to consider on top of that. no matter if you play for the best overall team or you play the matchup game, depth comes in handy (see a certain mia player from MIA). i believe you draft according to needs as unpredicatble things are sure to happen. lawdawgs may jettison one or both of those bye week wrs off in a trade and you will be stuck with the 2nd best wr while he potentially upgraded his wrs who will be playing you and also the cardinals in week 6.

i agree with your blockin strategy as even if you do not need that player, he can be used in a trade with a significant amount of leverage.
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good posts

Postby tmandpimp » Sun Jul 25, 2004 3:45 pm

i dont think it is realistic with me to check my weekly matchups to see what they have while i have to look at what i need while i need while i have to see what players they took to block while i check this and that and this all in about a 3 minute period....not that i guess it cant be done but i think that it would be too hard to check those specifics for each player to try and win a specific week...

but what do i know
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Re: good posts

Postby BGbootha » Sun Jul 25, 2004 4:34 pm

tmandpimp wrote:i dont think it is realistic with me to check my weekly matchups to see what they have while i have to look at what i need while i need while i have to see what players they took to block while i check this and that and this all in about a 3 minute period....not that i guess it cant be done but i think that it would be too hard to check those specifics for each player to try and win a specific week...

but what do i know


IN some slow drafts, like an email draft or something to that affect. I think this can be done with a great deal of success. However in most comond draft scenerios ie. live draft or live online drafts where you ahve a small time limit.

Personally i don't think that fast. I would rather spend my time looking at stats and projections than over analyzing weekly matchups. Could lead to the 2 seconds left blurt of of a name you later regret.
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