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My top 18 RB's

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Postby mnheadliner » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:46 pm

King G:

Thought you'd weigh in on this also, and thanks for doing so!

Well....it's TD plus yardage.....but Barlow at No. 8 even shocked me.

His projected stats: 12 TDs, 1250 rushing yards, 425 yards receiving.

He started the final 4 games of the season with 5 TDs, 433 yds rushing and 160 receiving yards. Full season, that projects out to 20 TDs, 1732 yards rushing and 640 receiving yards....not that I'm saying he's going to reach those stats! So, my projections are reachable. But Garcia and Owens' absence may decrease Barlows TD total from 12 to the area of 10. I will be watching him very closely in training camp, along with the rest of the offense. However, if he is only projected to score 10 TDs he still remains as the 8th best RB available on draft day. ;-D
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Postby KingGhidra » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:18 pm

mnheadliner wrote:King G:

Thought you'd weigh in on this also, and thanks for doing so!

Well....it's TD plus yardage.....but Barlow at No. 8 even shocked me.

His projected stats: 12 TDs, 1250 rushing yards, 425 yards receiving.

He started the final 4 games of the season with 5 TDs, 433 yds rushing and 160 receiving yards. Full season, that projects out to 20 TDs, 1732 yards rushing and 640 receiving yards....not that I'm saying he's going to reach those stats! So, my projections are reachable. But Garcia and Owens' absence may decrease Barlows TD total from 12 to the area of 10. I will be watching him very closely in training camp, along with the rest of the offense. However, if he is only projected to score 10 TDs he still remains as the 8th best RB available on draft day. ;-D


The team that Barlow posted his stats the last three seasons with doesn't even exist anymore.

Look at what they lost:

Coaching staff: Mariucci took them to playoffs four times in six seasons. Both their defensive & offensive coordinators. Their o-line coach.

Players: 3rd best WR in the league with Owens. One of the better #2 WRs in the league with Streets. Dual run-passing threat QB Jeff Garcia. OT Derrick Deese, OG Ron Stone.

Any numbers Barlow ever put up you can throw out the window. SFO is definitely going with a youth movement. Their QB, WRs, RB and o-line are relatively young and inexperienced as starters.

Speaking of their o-line.

Only C Jeremy Newberry and RT Scott Gragg have significant starting experience. The other 3 projected starters have 38 games started total between them.

The 49ers are going to have to get really good really fast, or they are going to be in the cellar of the NFL all season long. That certainly won't be good for Barlow's TD totals.

The good news is... They did return a good portion of their overrated defense.

Oh yeah, they lead the league with $28M in dead money AKA money that counts against their salary cap for players who aren't even there anymore. That's a whopping 35% of their 2004 salary for players who won't contribute even one down for the 49ers.
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Postby jumpman8828 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:23 pm

KingGhidra wrote:
mnheadliner wrote:King G:

Thought you'd weigh in on this also, and thanks for doing so!

Well....it's TD plus yardage.....but Barlow at No. 8 even shocked me.

His projected stats: 12 TDs, 1250 rushing yards, 425 yards receiving.

He started the final 4 games of the season with 5 TDs, 433 yds rushing and 160 receiving yards. Full season, that projects out to 20 TDs, 1732 yards rushing and 640 receiving yards....not that I'm saying he's going to reach those stats! So, my projections are reachable. But Garcia and Owens' absence may decrease Barlows TD total from 12 to the area of 10. I will be watching him very closely in training camp, along with the rest of the offense. However, if he is only projected to score 10 TDs he still remains as the 8th best RB available on draft day. ;-D


The team that Barlow posted his stats the last three seasons with doesn't even exist anymore.

Look at what they lost:

Coaching staff: Mariucci took them to playoffs four times in six seasons. Both their defensive & offensive coordinators. Their o-line coach.

Players: 3rd best WR in the league with Owens. One of the better #2 WRs in the league with Streets. Dual run-passing threat QB Jeff Garcia. OT Derrick Deese, OG Ron Stone.

Any numbers Barlow ever put up you can throw out the window. SFO is definitely going with a youth movement. Their QB, WRs, RB and o-line are relatively young and inexperienced as starters.

Speaking of their o-line.

Only C Jeremy Newberry and RT Scott Gragg have significant starting experience. The other 3 projected starters have 38 games started total between them.

The 49ers are going to have to get really good really fast, or they are going to be in the cellar of the NFL all season long. That certainly won't be good for Barlow's TD totals.

The good news is... They did return a good portion of their overrated defense.

Oh yeah, they lead the league with $28M in dead money AKA money that counts against their salary cap for players who aren't even there anymore. That's a whopping 35% of their 2004 salary for players who won't contribute even one down for the 49ers.


What a great time to be a Niners fan, eh?
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Postby mnheadliner » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:24 pm

King G:

Thanks for the info. I knew of much of it already, but not all of it and that is why this cafe is so helpful. I still am enamored with Barlow....but will watch the team even more closely and he'll probably project out at 9 TD's for the season, as he's the unquestioned featured back. Thanks again for the help! :*)
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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:04 am

I'm a little different in several areas. Two of the main ones include:

1. Ahman Green is ranked too low. I see the backs you have listed above him a little differently than others. If I'm saddled with the first pick in a competitive league, I want and NEED someone I can rely on. Remember that pick No. 2 is a LONG way off. By the time you pick again, it will be time to reach for someone that may or may not be a consistent scorer for you. Holmes, LT2 and Portis all have big red question marks following them around in my rankings. Holmes' age can NOT be overlooked. People were saying how crazy I was when I questioned the unwavering support behind Marshall two years ago -- and Holmes is older this year than Faulk was back when he started to decline. Holmes had a record-setting, career season last year and will not be able to match those numbers. LT2 is awesome. As far as potential, he is the best athlete in the NFL, hands down. However, his team has actually gotten WORSE this offseason. Instead of savoring the WR-rich draft (or improving the O-line with Gallery), the Chargers drafted another QB. Much like Ricky Williams last year, LT2 will be expected to carry the entire team on his back. Defenses will continue to key on him totally. While he has the skills and athleticism to continue putting up respectable numbers, it has to wear on him at some point. Portis is small for a back. While that helps his elusiveness and overall ability, it also leads to injury concerns. He wasn't able to play all of last season. Add to that learning a brand-new system and Gibbs' tendencies to run more than one back in a game, and Portis has his own question marks. Green was the best all-around threat last year. He had more yardage than Priest, more TDs than LT2 and has NONE of the question marks this year. He's still on the same team, which has a nice balance on offense thanks to Favre and the emerging Javon Walker and a decent defense. He also plays in a very running-back-friendly conference. My opinion on that, for what it's worth.

2. Barlow will disappoint this year. While he'll do OK, he's not going to churn out the numbers that people are expecting. First, he hasn't been called on as the premier back for a full season. Will he have enough to go the distance? Not helping matters is that the Niners will struggle on all sides of the ball. Defensively, most teams will be able to build a comfortable lead, forcing San Fran to go to the passing game to keep up. Offensively, there is no real talent to keep defenses from crowding the box on Barlow. Until they can show me some skills, I am hard-pressed to expect anything stellar out of Rattay and the rag-tag WR corps. I know that the Niners WRs have potential, but by the time they get it together, Barlow will be run into the ground, worn down and possibly nursing some serious injuries. Again, it is similar to last year's Ricky Williams' situation. That scares me. I'd drop him to the mid to late second round.

There are some other things I'd switch, but these are the main two topics IMO.
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Postby cooleyhigh » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:15 am

I might buy Green as #3 or possibly #2.

I cannot see LT getting worn down at the age of 25. I have heard every argument possible from they have a better o-line :-? to only flutie can lead him to production.

Even a fool like me can realize he produces when the ball is dumped to him. If they stop doing this Schot should be shot.

As for Priest, predicting an injury is a fool's game. Many said his hip would limit him last year and regretted it.

Green is most def solid but I will keep him around #3.
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Postby mnheadliner » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:19 am

Warpigs:

I take your words to heart. Hey....I think you're in my cafe fantasy baseball league! I'm Joe Mauer in the baseball cafe.

Anyways....back to topic:

Holmes got the featured back nod a lot later in his career than Faulk did, so I am not really worried about wear and tear with him. I predict him having another stellar season, however, my drafts are both auction-style and with the depth at RB I doubt I will be paying the big bucks it will take to land Holmes, LT2 or Portis.

LT2 did it last season and I believe he can do it again. Yes it will wear on him at some point, but not this season or next season. Again, he'll likely be out of my price bracket.

I also share the same concerns as you do about Portis. He seems to be a bit injury prone, but I think he's a good fit in Washington and will put up solid numbers, but has the potential to be the best RB this season. However, he will go for too high an amount.

The RB pool is just too deep this season.

As for Green....I love Green....and really only one point seperates him from Portis in my rankings, so he's right there with Portis. I recognize GB is shifting their focus to being around Green and if I can get him at the right value, he is a player I am actually targeting. All good points on him and GB. He puts the "Green" in Green Bay.

I have already dropped Barlow to 118 pts, which puts him between Rudi Johnson and Taylor. He could drop another 3 spots in my rankings, depending what I see and hear out of SF this training camp.

Thanks for the insight buddy! ;-D
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Postby aussieboy » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:23 am

KingGhidra wrote:
mnheadliner wrote:King G:

Thought you'd weigh in on this also, and thanks for doing so!

Well....it's TD plus yardage.....but Barlow at No. 8 even shocked me.

His projected stats: 12 TDs, 1250 rushing yards, 425 yards receiving.

He started the final 4 games of the season with 5 TDs, 433 yds rushing and 160 receiving yards. Full season, that projects out to 20 TDs, 1732 yards rushing and 640 receiving yards....not that I'm saying he's going to reach those stats! So, my projections are reachable. But Garcia and Owens' absence may decrease Barlows TD total from 12 to the area of 10. I will be watching him very closely in training camp, along with the rest of the offense. However, if he is only projected to score 10 TDs he still remains as the 8th best RB available on draft day. ;-D


The team that Barlow posted his stats the last three seasons with doesn't even exist anymore.

Look at what they lost:

Coaching staff: Mariucci took them to playoffs four times in six seasons. Both their defensive & offensive coordinators. Their o-line coach.

Players: 3rd best WR in the league with Owens. One of the better #2 WRs in the league with Streets. Dual run-passing threat QB Jeff Garcia. OT Derrick Deese, OG Ron Stone.

Any numbers Barlow ever put up you can throw out the window. SFO is definitely going with a youth movement. Their QB, WRs, RB and o-line are relatively young and inexperienced as starters.

Speaking of their o-line.

Only C Jeremy Newberry and RT Scott Gragg have significant starting experience. The other 3 projected starters have 38 games started total between them.

The 49ers are going to have to get really good really fast, or they are going to be in the cellar of the NFL all season long. That certainly won't be good for Barlow's TD totals.

The good news is... They did return a good portion of their overrated defense.

Oh yeah, they lead the league with $28M in dead money AKA money that counts against their salary cap for players who aren't even there anymore. That's a whopping 35% of their 2004 salary for players who won't contribute even one down for the 49ers.


Yes, Barlow has lost much of his supporting cast from last year. Will this hurt him, probably, but the fact of the matter is this: He IS the SF offense at this point in time.

Offensive lines are great to have but if you have a crap 0-line this doesnt automaticaly mean your not going to be able to perform.
The following RB have O-lines that are considered to be in the bottom half of the NFL.

Ladainian Tomlinson
Ricky Williams
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Curtis Martin
Dominick Davis
Stephen Davis

There are a couple of decent RB in that group. Interestingly enough a few of those guys are in a similar position to Barlow in that they carry their teams offense. Guys like LT, Ricky, and Steven Davis.

Now I'm sure a few of you out there are thinking to yourself: "But Aussie, SF have no WR and their QB is injured!"

This point is valid, word has it that Rattay is recovering well. Rattay proved last yr that he was more than a capable QB. Sure it's easier to perform when you got a guy like TO on your team, but a WR from SF will step up this yr. My guess is as good as yours as to whom this may be, but someone will. Be it Lloyd, Woods or someone else i dont know. But someone will, theyll be behind so often that theyll be throwing a lot.

Barlow is going to have to get used to facing 8 man fronts from the get go, since teams are going to be geared to stopping him. If he gets 25-30 touches a game this will translate to solid fantasy production. I couldn't care less that he won't come near his 5.1 ypc he achieved last yr. If he carries the rock 350+ times he can go for 4ypc and thatll still be very nice production. Will this mean he might get injured or burn out towards the end of the season? Probably. But thats the risk you take in drafting him.

I have no problem predicting around 1400 yards and 11 TD for him. That would rank him at around 12 for all RB going by last yrs figures.

I guess my point is that it doens't so much matter that SF is going to suck this year. I agree with KG in that i see SF propping up the the league all year. However, there is no rule that says that good fantasy players cant come out of bad teams. Especially when they are clearly the main offensive weapon on their team. That's what Barlow is.
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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:26 am

cooleyhigh wrote:I cannot see LT getting worn down at the age of 25. I have heard every argument possible from they have a better o-line :-? to only flutie can lead him to production.

Even a fool like me can realize he produces when the ball is dumped to him. If they stop doing this Schot should be shot.


Even a fool can learn to totally lock into LT2 from a defensive standpoint. It's tough to lock into a team like Indy, where Edge may burn you, Peyton may toast you, Harrison could smoke you or the TE combo could reap some big rewards on a play. LT2 will be scoring stats on pure potential and heart alone this year, because he'll have no help. Even a tank will eventually break down if you repetedly run it into a brick wall

cooleyhigh wrote:As for Priest, predicting an injury is a fool's game. Many said his hip would limit him last year and regretted it.


Yeah and many said that Marshall Faulk would be God's gift to fantasy football two years ago. (they all regretted that) He had the total package and nothing could slow him down. Father Time gets everyone at some point, and Holmes is already past where many backs start to show a decline in stats. I'm not saying that Holmes is dropped out of the top 10. What I am saying is that if I had a choice between Holmes and Green at No. 1, I'd rather bank on an improving running back who is just hitting his stride and in a great system. I couldn't afford to draft someone at No. 1 only to see him falter and have to rely on a team led by the last pick in the second round. I think Green is the safest pick, and that's why I consider him No. 1.
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Postby mnheadliner » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:27 am

aussieboy.....

Good argument, and that's why I still am watching this thing closely.....very closely. ;-D
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