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My top 18 RB's

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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:35 am

aussieboy wrote:
KingGhidra wrote:
mnheadliner wrote:King G:

Thought you'd weigh in on this also, and thanks for doing so!

Well....it's TD plus yardage.....but Barlow at No. 8 even shocked me.

His projected stats: 12 TDs, 1250 rushing yards, 425 yards receiving.

He started the final 4 games of the season with 5 TDs, 433 yds rushing and 160 receiving yards. Full season, that projects out to 20 TDs, 1732 yards rushing and 640 receiving yards....not that I'm saying he's going to reach those stats! So, my projections are reachable. But Garcia and Owens' absence may decrease Barlows TD total from 12 to the area of 10. I will be watching him very closely in training camp, along with the rest of the offense. However, if he is only projected to score 10 TDs he still remains as the 8th best RB available on draft day. ;-D


The team that Barlow posted his stats the last three seasons with doesn't even exist anymore.

Look at what they lost:

Coaching staff: Mariucci took them to playoffs four times in six seasons. Both their defensive & offensive coordinators. Their o-line coach.

Players: 3rd best WR in the league with Owens. One of the better #2 WRs in the league with Streets. Dual run-passing threat QB Jeff Garcia. OT Derrick Deese, OG Ron Stone.

Any numbers Barlow ever put up you can throw out the window. SFO is definitely going with a youth movement. Their QB, WRs, RB and o-line are relatively young and inexperienced as starters.

Speaking of their o-line.

Only C Jeremy Newberry and RT Scott Gragg have significant starting experience. The other 3 projected starters have 38 games started total between them.

The 49ers are going to have to get really good really fast, or they are going to be in the cellar of the NFL all season long. That certainly won't be good for Barlow's TD totals.

The good news is... They did return a good portion of their overrated defense.

Oh yeah, they lead the league with $28M in dead money AKA money that counts against their salary cap for players who aren't even there anymore. That's a whopping 35% of their 2004 salary for players who won't contribute even one down for the 49ers.


Yes, Barlow has lost much of his supporting cast from last year. Will this hurt him, probably, but the fact of the matter is this: He IS the SF offense at this point in time.

Offensive lines are great to have but if you have a crap 0-line this doesnt automaticaly mean your not going to be able to perform.
The following RB have O-lines that are considered to be in the bottom half of the NFL.

Ladainian Tomlinson
Ricky Williams
Tiki Barber
Travis Henry
Curtis Martin
Dominick Davis
Stephen Davis

There are a couple of decent RB in that group. Interestingly enough a few of those guys are in a similar position to Barlow in that they carry their teams offense. Guys like LT, Ricky, and Steven Davis.

Now I'm sure a few of you out there are thinking to yourself: "But Aussie, SF have no WR and their QB is injured!"

This point is valid, word has it that Rattay is recovering well. Rattay proved last yr that he was more than a capable QB. Sure it's easier to perform when you got a guy like TO on your team, but a WR from SF will step up this yr. My guess is as good as yours as to whom this may be, but someone will. Be it Lloyd, Woods or someone else i dont know. But someone will, theyll be behind so often that theyll be throwing a lot.

Barlow is going to have to get used to facing 8 man fronts from the get go, since teams are going to be geared to stopping him. If he gets 25-30 touches a game this will translate to solid fantasy production. I couldn't care less that he won't come near his 5.1 ypc he achieved last yr. If he carries the rock 350+ times he can go for 4ypc and thatll still be very nice production. Will this mean he might get injured or burn out towards the end of the season? Probably. But thats the risk you take in drafting him.

I have no problem predicting around 1400 yards and 11 TD for him. That would rank him at around 12 for all RB going by last yrs figures.

I guess my point is that it doens't so much matter that SF is going to suck this year. I agree with KG in that i see SF propping up the the league all year. However, there is no rule that says that good fantasy players cant come out of bad teams. Especially when they are clearly the main offensive weapon on their team. That's what Barlow is.


Decent arguement, but let's consider some other backs who bucked the odds and were productive on ALL-AROUND miserable teams. I can think of two off the top of my head...

LaDanian Tomlinson and Barry Sanders.

Now, while you may think Barlow is the best thing since sliced bread, he doesn't come close to holding either LT2's or Sanders' jock in my opinion. What about some average to above-average backs who made it happen with ZERO supporting cast (again, I think the Niners will find that chemistry and will meet potential at some point -- MY point is that it will be too late to help a beleaguered Barlow). I'm having trouble thinking of any.
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Postby aussieboy » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:50 am

Make no mistake Warpigs, I will never use Barlow in the same breath as LT or Sanders talent wise.

LT and Sanders' ypc average on thier shite teams tell us how talented these guys are. What i was stating was that given how many guys are gonna be in the box to stop Barlow there's no way hell come close to 5ypc, BUT, if he carries it 25 times a game he'll still give nice numbers despite his YPC being relatively poor.

Look at Stephen Davis last yr. Going into the season what did Carolina have on offense other than Davis. Smith broke out towards the middle of the season, but the offense was run the ball with Davis. Carolina don't have a great O-line hence Davis only scored 8 TDs but his 1400 rushing yards was great.

I think Barlow is in a very similar position to what Davis was in last yr. Now there's no way SF will go to the superbowl but I think Barlow proved last yr he'll be capable of carrying the load. I read that barlow has apparently put on 10pounds of solid muscle without losing a bit of speed. So it seems this guy is determined to succeed and he knows hes going to be in for a lot of work.

In a TD heavy league I would definately put Edge ahead of Barlow. But you cant be crucified putting Barlow ahead of the rest of the guys.
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Postby Tampajim » Sat Jul 24, 2004 12:55 am

R. Williams is way too low on your list.

He is without a doubt a top 9 back. Along with E. James.

He will get a ton of chances to score points via touchdowns and yards.

He has zero competition on the bench to take away touches.

and

He has proven himself year after year as a workhorse.


IMHO...R Williams will be the 2003 P Holmes of this years draft. Almost every team will pass on him. He will fall to the 8th or 9th pick...maybe later by your rankings. He will produce somewhere between his 2002 and 2003 totals. This is truly an undervalued stud RB.
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Postby mnheadliner » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:17 am

tampajim.....

First off, welcome to the cafe!

Now, onto your post.

I thought someone would think as you do on R. Williams. E. James is now listed #8 at RB on my list, with the drop of Barlow down the list. However, I have to really disagree on Williams. Of course you can see I have him at #15. His YPC went from 4.8 in 2002 to crashing down to 3.5 in 2003 and he's taken a pounding over his brief career. His YPC may increase to 3.7....maybe....but I'm not of that frame of mind. I hope the big guy proves me wrong....but I don't know. At 28 Faulk started to get that injury bug.....

You said he has proven himself year after year as a workhorse. He has, and that's the problem....too many years as the workhorse. I gave him 8 TD's in my projections. If he gets 10 TD's (like last season...and his 3-yr avg. is 11 TD's a season) then that vaults him up to #10 on my list. Possible? Yes. Likely? No, not in my mind. But he's no better than #10. That's a virtual certainty in my mind. ;-D
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Postby Rodge » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:25 am

Warpigs wrote:What about some average to above-average backs who made it happen with ZERO supporting cast (again, I think the Niners will find that chemistry and will meet potential at some point -- MY point is that it will be too late to help a beleaguered Barlow). I'm having trouble thinking of any.


How about Jerome Bettis in his rookie year of 1993. During that season, Bettis finished only 57 yards behind Emmitt Smith for the rushing title. Now, the LA Rams of 1993 did have Henry Ellard at WR, but other than that, they pretty much had nothing. Jim Everett's QB rating was 59.7 and T.J. Rubley, yes T.J. Rubley, took over for Everett as the starter. As for the defense, it ranked 25th in the NFL in total defense in terms of yards given up (out of 28 teams back then). Bettis finished with 294 carries for 1429 yards, a 4.9 avg. He did however score only 7 TD's, but what do you expect on that bad of a team? I found it interesting though that the league leader in rushing TD's only had 12 (Marcus Allen). Bettis tied for 9th in the league for rushing TD's. Anyways, the 1993 Bettis is what I could come up with for an above average back that performed very well on a horrible team. Don't get me wrong though, I don't think that Barlow is a 1993 Jerome Bettis by any stretch of the imagination.
Last edited by Rodge on Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:36 am

Rodge wrote:
Warpigs wrote:What about some average to above-average backs who made it happen with ZERO supporting cast (again, I think the Niners will find that chemistry and will meet potential at some point -- MY point is that it will be too late to help a beleaguered Barlow). I'm having trouble thinking of any.


How about Jerome Bettis in his rookie year of 1993. During that season, Bettis finished only 57 yards behind Emmitt Smith for the rushing title. Now, the LA Rams of 1993 did have Henry Ellard at WR, but other than that, they pretty much had nothing. Jim Everett's QB rating was 59.7 and T.J. Rubley, yes T.J. Rubley, took over for Everett as the starter. As for the defense, it ranked 25th in the NFL (out of 28 teams back then). Bettis finished with 294 carries for 1429 yards, a 4.9 avg. He did however score only 7 TD's, but what do you expect on that bad of a team? I found it interesting though that the league leader in rushing TD's only had 12 (Marcus Allen). Bettis tied for 9th in the league for rushing TD's. Anyways, the 1993 Bettis is what I could come up with for an above average back that performed very well on a horrible team. Don't get me wrong though, I don't think that Barlow is a 1993 Jerome Bettis by any stretch of the imagination.


Hey. Some good points here. It all boils down to your last statement, though, that Barlow is no 1993 Bettis. You and I have agreed in several other threads about Barlow, and in the end, until Barlow proves it to me, I'm going to be skeptical that he can make it happen considering his supporting cast.

Also, on the comment before about SDavis last year with the Panthers -- one thing that Carolina had last year that San Fran doesn't have is a top-tier defense. THe Panthers didn't need to air it out a bunch to keep up in wild shootout games -- they won games with clock control. They could continue to hand the rock over to Davis over and over because the game was close enough to warrant a commitment to the running game. The Niners this year will need to play from behind more often than not. At some point (probably in the third quarter in most games), the Niners will move to a mostly passing offense. This will leave Barlow on the backburner yet again.

Overall, I just think there's too many stars out of alignment for Barlow to be successful in spite of his surroundings. Only the elite backs in NFL history could overcome the odds, and I don't consider Barlow an elite back.
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Postby Warpigs » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:38 am

Hey mnheadliner -- where you from?
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Postby mnheadliner » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:39 am

Minnesota.....26 yrs old.....Moss hater in real life....Moss lover in fantasy life (not THAT fantasy life...lol)....you warpigs?
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Postby Rodge » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:50 am

Minnesota here too...in case anyone cared. Not much of a Vikings fan at all though. I am a fan of the game of football first and foremost, favorite teams and fantasy football way after that. People that only watch football because it is the home team have always annoyed me and I suppose that is why I am not a Vikings fan. I mean, if you are going to watch sports, watch them because you actually like the sport.
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Postby MadScott » Sat Jul 24, 2004 1:51 am

[quote="bgbootha"]If i were to compare it too my list. I would say that F. Taylor looked a bit too high. Henry a little low. I would possibly switch those two.[quote]

I don't think that's the case at all. Fred has finally ditched the "fragile" tag and had a great year last year. I see no reason to think that he won't at least repeat what he did last year. If anything, he may even be a bit better with J. Smith not on suspension to start the year and with Williams at the other WR spot.
Henry's production has got to slip some. There is no way that they Bill's brass is going to let McGahee ride the pine this year. He's going to rob carries and if he gets going well, I wouldn't be surprised to see a grumpy Henry on the bench by mid season.
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