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Rookie Impact?

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Rookie Impact?

Postby NittanyLions » Sat Jul 24, 2004 9:08 pm

Heres an interesting tit bit (hehe)

We all talk about Fitz, Roy, Reggie, Lee. We say they could make a difference. Well, since Boldin had a great rookie year in 2003 we all seem to think rookies can be of value in fantasy. However, since 1995 only 4 rookie WRs have eclipsed the 1000 yard mark. Therefore, they cannot be considered good top 3 WRs for your roster as some like. I know that theres some of us who generally avoid rookie WRs and some who will pick promising, young players early. In dynasty leagues this is irrelevant. Heres the numbers of the 4:
1995-Joey Galloway, SEA-1,039 yds and 7 TDs
1996-Terry Glenn, NE-1,132 yds and 6 TDs
1998-Randy Moss, MIN-1,313 yds with 17 TDs
2003-Anquan Boldin, ARI-1,377 with 8 TDs

For the portion of FF owners who like to invest in rookie wideouts in the first 10 or so rounds, you are taking a BIG risk, so I suggest not drafting them that early in a keeper or redraft and expect much from them. Seeing as last year we experienced the most yards from a rookie and second most TDs since 95
Last edited by NittanyLions on Sun Jul 25, 2004 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jumpman8828 » Sat Jul 24, 2004 9:35 pm

Yeah, doesn't anyone go by the "third year" rule for WR's anymore these days?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Jul 24, 2004 9:53 pm

You're preachin to the choir with me, Nittany.

I saw Fitz go in the 5th rd the other day. All I could do was shake my head.

The problem is that people get hyped on getting the next. It happens every yr.
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Postby Canacuna » Sat Jul 24, 2004 10:15 pm

I was reading something about that after the NFL draft... Yeah, the only rookies The 'Cuna doesn't mind drafting are RBs - otherwise, I tend to stay from 'em.
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Postby Azrael » Sat Jul 24, 2004 10:23 pm

jumpman8828 wrote:Yeah, doesn't anyone go by the "third year" rule for WR's anymore these days?


The thing about 3rd year wideouts is yes, you have a number that have broken out there are just as many that have done nothing too.
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Postby jumpman8828 » Sat Jul 24, 2004 10:46 pm

Azrael wrote:
jumpman8828 wrote:Yeah, doesn't anyone go by the "third year" rule for WR's anymore these days?


The thing about 3rd year wideouts is yes, you have a number that have broken out there are just as many that have done nothing too.


I know, that's true. I brought that up because it puts emphasis on WR's adjusting to the NFL before they can put up great numbers, which is an argument against rookie wide receivers going so high.
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Postby houstonherdfan » Sat Jul 24, 2004 11:38 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:You're preachin to the choir with me, Nittany.

I saw Fitz go in the 5th rd the other day. All I could do was shake my head.

The problem is that people get hyped on getting the next. It happens every yr.


Even bigger head shaking saw Winslow go in the 5th
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Postby MadScott » Sat Jul 24, 2004 11:43 pm

The Boldin anomaly last year has truly skewed the value of this year's WR class. Too much is being expected of them and it's going to cause many a drafter to overpay greatly for a rookie. I've seen that stat that Nittany posted before and it really speaks to just how hard of a league that it is to come into. You also need to look at how Boldin's numbers were arrived at last year as well. They were completely devoid of any veteran WR talent and Johnson was hurt at the start of the year. Who else could they throw too? I really don't see any of the incoming rookies being in that same situation at all. I'm planning on sitting back and letting someone else make the dopey decision to grab one of these guys early. If someone is there late, I may take a gamble but not until late.
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Postby GMoney » Sat Jul 24, 2004 11:44 pm

I do agree with you guys in a general sense. But I am goin to play the Devil's advocate on this issue.

There are 2 main reasons that this year could be different for rookie WRs than most.

1. This years rookie class was the best one in a decade. Guys taken at the end of the 1st round could have been top 5-10 picks in years previous. With the number of good WRs taken the chances mathimatically have to improve of at least 1 of them breaking out.

2. The biggest adjusment required of rookie WRs is learning to deal with the physical corners. They just arent used to getting mugged inside 5 yards and have trouble getting into their routes after that. This year that adjustment factor should be reduced significantly.

These two factors should make for at least 1 break out WR this year. Who that will be? your guess is as good as mine.
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