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Breakout years?

Postby NittanyLions » Sat Jul 24, 2004 10:25 pm

We all sit down and see who the 3rd year wideouts are every year. We start calling the 3rd years sleepers. Some say this theory is BS, some live by it. To give you a better understanding of what you can expect from these WRs Ill give you some numbers. Since 1995, 2nd year breakouts have come from:
Boston (1156)
Burress (1008)
Crowell (1338)
Gardner (1006)
Holt (1635)
D Jackson (1081)
C Johnson (1166)
K Robinson (1240)

Total:8
Total over 1,000 in their next year: 4 or 50%

3rd year breakouts:
Booker (1071)
Coles (1264)
Connell (1132)
Freeman (1243)
Kev Johnson (1097)
Key Johnson (1131)
S Moss (1105)
Moulds (1326)
Owens (1097)
M Robinson (1451)
F Sanders (1017)
R Smith (1180)
S Smith (1110)

Total: 13
Total over 1,000 in their next year: 6 or about 46%

4th year:
Chrebet (1083)
Driver (1064)
Harrison (1663)
Jeffers (1082)
Muhammad (1253)
Price (1252)
Toomer (1183)
Ward (1003)

Total:8
Total over 1,000 in their next year: 4 or 50%

5th year:
Horn (1332)
Mason (1128)
M Westbrook (1191)

Total:3
Total over 1,000 in their next year: 2 or about 66%

Overall 1000 yard WRs in the next year: 50%


As you can see, 3rd year breakouts are more abundant, but 4th and 2nd years have the same amount of breakouts. As their career goes on, however, breakouts become less likely.

The chances of a breakout WR to continue his success the next year is exactly half and half.
Last edited by NittanyLions on Sun Jul 25, 2004 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Azrael » Sat Jul 24, 2004 10:47 pm

So who are our 3rd year wideouts this year?

Deion Branch
Antonio Bryant
Reche Caldwell
Kelly Campbell
Andre Davis
Jabar Gaffney
David Givens
Eric Parker
Antwaan Randle El
Josh Reed
Donte Stallworth
Javon Walker

My Top 3
1. Walker
2. Stallworth
3. Givens
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Postby Canacuna » Sun Jul 25, 2004 2:51 am

Nittany, FYI - the titles of your posts suck. ;-)

Out of Azrael's list, here's The 'Cuna's "Top Three"...

1. Javon Walker
2. David Givens
3. Eric Parker 8-o
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Postby MadScott » Sun Jul 25, 2004 4:52 am

Canacuna wrote:Nittany, FYI - the titles of your posts suck. ;-)

Out of Azrael's list, here's The 'Cuna's "Top Three"...

1. Javon Walker
2. David Givens
3. Eric Parker 8-o


I actually kind of like his chances this year too. He had an up and down year last year but showed some flashes. Someone comes out of nowhere in SD all the time, why not him?
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