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Flaws in other websites player projections

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Postby BuckyGator » Wed Aug 11, 2004 6:23 pm

The point is correct though - sites/mags that DON'T take into account the total yards a team will end up with are majorly flawed. Better to use them only as a guide, and use your own opinions and common sense to reach final projections.
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Postby Sixxgunn » Wed Aug 11, 2004 6:59 pm

atvjerryrice80 wrote:yes i see what you are saying, but im thinking that they assume you are adding the other RB's on the team into the equation w/o them doing it for you


You have a couple of guys that will carry the ball you never even heard of,and they will get a combined couple hundred or so,then the QB may run some plays,another 50-100 yds on the season,maybe more,WR's occasionally run the ball.Take that all into account and the numbers add up a little better.I do feel if that projection on Garner is a real one and not just an example,I think that is a bit low.Anyway....cheatsheet rankings only put the best guys near the top and make it easier on me to sort out who I think really should be in what spot,and hopefully you do the same as well.
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Postby Flux » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:29 am

KingGhidra wrote:
Amazinz wrote:FootballGuys takes it into account and some others do too. IMO if this isn't taken into account then the projections are seriously flawed and just about useless.


I know Ian Allan at fantasyfootballindex.com (not the Giants OL) does just that. He projects team yards and assigns them on a % basis to individual players.


thats exactly the way they should do it.

A lot of these other sites try and pretend they offer such a great service but when you breakdown what they are really doing its pitiful.



As for random other guys adding to my example, its doubtful that they would add up to a significant amount of yards. It does bring it closer to normal, but thats still very low for any team

btw, those numbers are very close to a projection i did see
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Postby moose_ffc » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:18 am

Flux wrote:
KingGhidra wrote:
Amazinz wrote:FootballGuys takes it into account and some others do too. IMO if this isn't taken into account then the projections are seriously flawed and just about useless.


I know Ian Allan at fantasyfootballindex.com (not the Giants OL) does just that. He projects team yards and assigns them on a % basis to individual players.


thats exactly the way they should do it.

A lot of these other sites try and pretend they offer such a great service but when you breakdown what they are really doing its pitiful.



As for random other guys adding to my example, its doubtful that they would add up to a significant amount of yards. It does bring it closer to normal, but thats still very low for any team

btw, those numbers are very close to a projection i did see


I find lots of the projections out there suspect, but I have a lot more respect for the good projections instead of just randomly throwing out rankings with no "good" numbers to back them up. I haven't had too much to complain about when I look at these two sites projections:

http://www.footballguys.com
http://www.footballdocs.com

I mean, I may disagree, but I don't find these projections unrealistic. I like to use them as a base to build my own projections off of.
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Postby Franchise Fan » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:26 am

What I think goes through their heads is, "Let me predict how good this guy will do based on his situation". This may sound right, but they say something like "oh, Julius Jones, I predicted him to have 1200 yds and 9 TDs, now that he may split carries, how about 600 yds, and 5 TDs." Then "Eddie george is old, and has to split carries... 400 yds and 3 TDs is about right." What they dont do is say,

Julius and Eddie Have to share carries, But Dallas loves the run, Probably 1500 total yds and 11 TDs. Lets say Richie Anderson gets 1 of those TDs, that leaves 9 for Julius and Eddie, Julius will probably have more, so 6 TDs for Julius and around 700 yds, Eddie Will probably get 4 TDs and 550 yds, the rest Richie Anderson should get, he had 300 last year. I mean, thats what I do with my projections, I havent Check that Ian guys site out yet, but im guessing he does the same.
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Postby moose_ffc » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:38 am

Franchise Fan wrote:What I think goes through their heads is, "Let me predict how good this guy will do based on his situation". This may sound right, but they say something like "oh, Julius Jones, I predicted him to have 1200 yds and 9 TDs, now that he may split carries, how about 600 yds, and 5 TDs." Then "Eddie george is old, and has to split carries... 400 yds and 3 TDs is about right." What they dont do is say,

Julius and Eddie Have to share carries, But Dallas loves the run, Probably 1500 total yds and 11 TDs. Lets say Richie Anderson gets 1 of those TDs, that leaves 9 for Julius and Eddie, Julius will probably have more, so 6 TDs for Julius and around 700 yds, Eddie Will probably get 4 TDs and 550 yds, the rest Richie Anderson should get, he had 300 last year. I mean, thats what I do with my projections, I havent Check that Ian guys site out yet, but im guessing he does the same.



Well, I don't believe any site that has Eddie getting less than ~700 yards rushing. The Boys are going to run the ball and Eddie is a warrior who will play every game. That's atleast 43.75 yards per game. I think he will have more than that, but I also think that Jones will have a substantial amount of yards too. I agree I think that Dallas combo should get atleast 1500 yards total. I think that FG has a little less than that predicted and FD has a little more predicted.
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