Sixxgunn wrote:All this being said,what do you guys project his overall stats to be?Rushing and receiving.I'm in a heavily based yardage league,and this could really help if he can be a #1 guy,even if he doesn't get the TD's.
If he can get 15-18 carries a game, that puts him around 250 carries on the year. He can easily crack 1000 yards rushing. Another 45+ receptions for around 400 yards and 4-5 total TDs and you're looking at very good round 9 value. If he's your 3rd or 4th back, you'll be able to get a very nice return on your investment later on in the season if someone is struggling at the #2 RB position.
They have a really soft schedule early on too. Atlanta could very easily start off 5-1/4-2. The coaches won't make a drastic RB change if they are winning with Dunn, which could help carry him through the rest of the season to prime week 15 & 16 matchups with New Orleans and Carolina.
every year i hear talk about duckett looking great and how he is going to be the man. last year in fact at this very same time i heard those very things. every year i pick up dunn late and every year he is the starter. last year he had some LONG td's when he was healthy! (which my league rewards) so the fact that he'll lose some goaline carries to TJ dosnt bother me, especially since tj will lose some goaline carries to vick. point being tj cant catch and isnt an especially gifted blocker which means at the very least dunn will be used in both of those situations plus the fact that dunn scores lots of td's on long passes and it makes for a GREAT late round pickup and a GREAT #3 if he stays healthy, before his injury last year he was a solid #2!
34=Sweetness wrote:Wait how did he win the job after a spectacular 2.4 YPC? In preseason? Doesn't sound like hes going to win the job with that. We will see if Rotoworld is right on this.
You must have missed those back to back 150 yard games he had as the starter last season. And then there was the game right after that where he got injured... He collected something 130 yards passing?
Simply put, Dunn brings something to this offense that Duckett doesn't and that is why he's the #1 on the depth chart. Duckett only has fantasy value because he will be seeing most of the goalline opportunities.
If I was going to compare this situation to any other, I would say Dunn is the Barber and Duckett is the Dayne.
Dunn is a far better fit for the WCO than Duckett is. This may actually extend Dunn's career in the long run. I was reading somewhere the other day that Griffith was actually going to be used extensively as a 3rd down back in the WCO sets and that he is continuing to gain favor in coaches' eyes.
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MadScott wrote:Dunn is a far better fit for the WCO than Duckett is. This may actually extend Dunn's career in the long run. I was reading somewhere the other day that Griffith was actually going to be used extensively as a 3rd down back in the WCO sets and that he is continuing to gain favor in coaches' eyes.
I said a couple of times last season that Griffith looks better suited to run the ball than Duckett. Maybe I should be a RB coach somewhere.
Dunn's a better fit in the offense and a better receiver. He's also older and has proven injury prone. Duckett may not be the halfback that Dunn is but he's going to get TD's, even if Dunn stays healthy. If Dunn gets hurt again, Duckett's yardage goes up as well.
Say what you want, Duckett had 11 TD's last year. He made me very happy as a WW pickup.
Sixxgunn wrote:All this being said,what do you guys project his overall stats to be?Rushing and receiving.I'm in a heavily based yardage league,and this could really help if he can be a #1 guy,even if he doesn't get the TD's.
If he can get 15-18 carries a game, that puts him around 250 carries on the year. He can easily crack 1000 yards rushing. Another 45+ receptions for around 400 yards and 4-5 total TDs and you're looking at very good round 9 value. If he's your 3rd or 4th back, you'll be able to get a very nice return on your investment later on in the season if someone is struggling at the #2 RB position.
They have a really soft schedule early on too. Atlanta could very easily start off 5-1/4-2. The coaches won't make a drastic RB change if they are winning with Dunn, which could help carry him through the rest of the season to prime week 15 & 16 matchups with New Orleans and Carolina.
Since when are Carolina a prime matchup for running backs?
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Those GMs that are not even considering either of these guys are crazy. If I had to choose one over the other it would be Duckett. If you have watched this guy closely over the past two years you can clearly see his potential. He is a 1,500 yard/12 TD running back just waiting to happen. Did you see that big run he had against Baltimore that got called back? As I mentioned previously, he was out of favor with Coach Reeves for his refusal/inability to block anyone. Apparently, that is still the word with the new coaching staff. As for Dunn, he ain't getting any younger. And two years of being used incorrectly by Reeves has taken its toll on his body, I think.
In conclusion, keep a close eye on the Falcons preseason to see how Mora's Vick-stlye West Coast Offense shapes up and see how he decides to use Dunn. If Dunn stays healty (which my gut says he won't) and Mora uses him properly he could have a pretty good year. Duckett is gonna break out, he just needs to be given the chance.
georgiadawg wrote:Those GMs that are not even considering either of these guys are crazy. If I had to choose one over the other it would be Duckett. If you have watched this guy closely over the past two years you can clearly see his potential. He is a 1,500 yard/12 TD running back just waiting to happen. Did you see that big run he had against Baltimore that got called back? As I mentioned previously, he was out of favor with Coach Reeves for his refusal/inability to block anyone. Apparently, that is still the word with the new coaching staff. As for Dunn, he ain't getting any younger. And two years of being used incorrectly by Reeves has taken its toll on his body, I think. In conclusion, keep a close eye on the Falcons preseason to see how Mora's Vick-stlye West Coast Offense shapes up and see how he decides to use Dunn. If Dunn stays healty (which my gut says he won't) and Mora uses him properly he could have a pretty good year. Duckett is gonna break out, he just needs to be given the chance.
You can NOT refuse to block in the west coast offense. It's not happening. You need that versatile multi-threat back in the WCO. Coaches usually end up going with a lesser RB who can catch and block better. They're not looking for a Jamal Lewis, they want a Garrison Hearst.
Yeah, neither of these backs should excite too many fantasy owners. The only thing worse than the phrase "Running Back By Committee" is a committee without a clear front runner. But with Dunn's injury history, TJ definitely has a chance to be the man by midseason.
"We sucked. We couldn't do diddly-poo out there..." Jim Mora
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by Sixxgunn » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:18 pm 
