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RB qusetion

Postby The Gatekeeper » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:44 pm

Everyone always talks about the decline of running backs after they turn 30. I need some opinions on whether or not you guys think theis is due to sheer age or the beating you take from years in teh NFL. Example...Holmes and Faulk are both 31, however, Holmes will only be in his 8th year while Faulk will be starting his 11th. Do you guys think this makes Holmes possibly shed a little bit of the fear people put on backs over 30? Dillon had been in the league just as long as Holmes but is only 29. If you guys have any opinions, throw them out.
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Postby Ek » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:13 pm

I think Holmes will get an extra year or two before he breaks down - more because he had so few carries early in his career than the length of time he's been in the league. While he's not a great long-term option, he should still be great this year. Faulk, on the other hand, was showing signs of breakdown two years ago.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:09 pm

I think a lot people put too much emphasis on age rather than workload. We all know that the age factor does NOT transcend positions, QBs and WRs last much longer than RBs in this league. You need to look at a players amount of touches to determine how well he will succeed. There are also a ton of other factors, including a player's mentality that will dictate how long he will produce at a high level. Ricky William's took a pounding for 2 straight seasons and that was enough to send him over the breaking point. Every player's breaking point is different.

Age should not be totally disregarded though, even for players that have not had as much NFL experience as others. Priest Holmes may only have 8 seasons under his belt, but how long has he been involved in football and taking a lot of hits? Probably since he was a little kid. Personally, I would look at the words coming out of his mouth rather than the injury report when you're determining how older players will produce. If they are talking like Jerry Rice "I still have a few seasons left in me -age40" then the age factor doesn't apply so much.
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Postby The Gatekeeper » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:49 pm

I guess my question is how many more years do you guys think Priest will be able to perform at a high level, obviously not as high as the last year or two but still at a high level. 2,3?
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Postby The Great Gambini » Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:50 pm

Hard to say. People have been waiting for Holmes to go down for the last few years, and he continues to impress. But, at age 31, I think he only has 2 or 3 years left. Still good enough to at least be a top 3 keeper, and is still the man in redrafts.
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Postby atvjerryrice80 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:10 pm

priest will go down in the next 2-3 years. LT2 will go down soon if he stays with the chargers as he gets the ball almost every down
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Postby josh313 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:21 pm

I would say 3 years at the maximum before his numbers dramatically drop off. However, do not look for another 27 TD season this year. Because of that his numbers will decline a bit but not enough to take him out of the top 3 (LT, Priest, and Ahman). Over the next seasons you do have to watch out for injury though, which is a stupid comment but usefull to say because you must do that with everybody.
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Postby Ek » Sat Aug 14, 2004 4:21 pm

I predict he has a dissappointing season of 1500 total yds and 21-23 TDs.
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Postby KingGhidra » Sat Aug 14, 2004 4:51 pm

This year is the litmus test for Priest Holmes. He was nowhere near as explosive as his 2001/2002 seasons. He says the hip will never be 100% again, so I tend to think he has 2 seasons left at most. He signed the contract extension last year with the promise to play another 3 seasons I believe. That means he'll play through 2005 at least, but I doubt he plays after 2005 regardless.
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Postby MadScott » Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:51 am

2,000 touches seems to be the magic # were RBs start to decline. Dillon goes over that mark this year while Priest is still 2 seasons away from hitting it. To me, that's more of a benchmark than anything.
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