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Mock Draft trends WR's- Think you have a sleeper?

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Mock Draft trends WR's- Think you have a sleeper?

Postby Schelaq » Sun Aug 15, 2004 8:24 pm

The following is a mock draft update courtesy of SuperJox.com. Today’s update will look at WR’s, trends and sleepers and where players who are over and under valued are being selected. All Mock trends are compiled through our site using the averages of the mocks that have concluded through 8/13/04.

The top 3 are consistent in almost every draft processed. R.Moss is going between #4 overall and #10, and in most cases is being selected @ #8 overall. M.Harrison’s high selection was 8, low was 16 and average position is 11th overall. Holt is not far behind and with a high pick of 8, low of 19 and average selection is #14 overall. In more than a few drafts Holt is being selected over Harrison and a case can be made for such as Harrsion’s days of 140+ catches per year are most certainly behind him. There are way too many options on the Colts Offense compared to the current Rams offense with or without Marshall Faulk. We continue to hear whispers that Faulk will share carries with S.Jackson, but will still be the main option out of the backfield for the short and intermediate passes.

The next 3 WR’s are H.Ward, T.Ownes and C.Johnson, and all 3 on average are being selected fairly late in the second round. T.O. high pick was 11th overall and low was 22nd overall, with 18 being his average selection. Ward and Johnson are almost interchangeable with high/low and average picks. Highs were 18 and lows 32, average pick were 23.2 and 23.4. Ward offers more stability and Johnson offers more upside, but also has more downside with the new QB starting.

We will now look at players that are overvalued as well as undervalued:
-Overvalued:
1) Javon Walker- It seems as though everyone is jumping on the Packer WR. He is by far the first GB receiver taken. His high pick was 36, last pick, 3rd round and low was 71, last half of round 6. At this point, you are going to pay a high price for this 3rd year WR. You must remember that Favre spreads the ball around so 100 catches and 1300 yards will be difficult to achieve.
2) Donte Stallworth- Similar situation here, high pick 48, low pick 88 overall with an average pick of #63 overall. You have to love the potential but are you willing to pay the price for a WR that seems to be on the injured list more than he is on the field?
3) Ashlie Lelie- High pick #46, low #91, average selection #75. We would agree that his situation is a very good one to be in. R.Smith is aging, S.Sharpe is retired, no steady Eddie around, but selecting him with your 6th round pick maybe a little risky. Note he along with the top 2 others on this list are in their 3rd year, and you know that is the typical breakout year for WR’s but we are not comfortable taking a flyer on him with our 6th pick when other options are available. Than again, he is an ex first round pick and it is just a matter of time before he break out. Will it be early this year or will it be week 10 before the light goes on and he has practically killed your fantasy team. If you can get him a round or 2 later we wouldn’t mind paying the price, but you know that’s why you mock your tail off during this time of year.


Undervalued:
1) Darrell Jackson / Koren Robinson: These 2 WR’s are on average being selected right after one another. Ave. pick is 46 for Jackson and Robinson arrives 3 picks later at #49. Jackson’s range is a little narrower as high/low split is 33/55. Robinson roles in at 29/69. We feel anything after #48 is a good value; Robinson in rounds 5 or 6 is excellent value. His was slightly disappointing last year, and that has allowed him to slip. If you recall, he was consistently marked as a breakout player. His numbers were very good; the fact that Jackson outperformed him was a mild surprise. However you want to slice it, take Robinson and you will not be disappointed.
2) Jerry Porter; Ave pick in our 12 team leagues is 73, that’s early round #7. Good value here as if he is on the field, he will be the raiders #1 wideout. He posses the speed needed to get downfield, something Norv Turner asks in his passing game. J.Rice will slow down even more and is nothing more than a possession receiver at this stage. We seriously doubt he cracks 1000 yards this year. The funny thing here is since the release of T.Brown his average position has only raised slightly, making him even more of a value.
3) Marty Booker; He is getting very little love for a guy that catches as many passes as he does. Again, he is coming off a down year, as injuries were a factor last year. The Bears offense will be more wide open, and he is a safe pick at #85 is value is nice. High/low split is 55/110.
WR trends…
Moss is typically going #1 after the first 8 RB’s are off the board. There is a big run on WR’s from the middle of round 3 to the middle of round 4. Normally 6 WR’s are being selected through the first 2 rounds.

Again a thanks to SuperJox.com
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Postby BGbootha » Sun Aug 15, 2004 8:29 pm

nice read!!!!!!!!! ;-D ;-D
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Postby Mustangs989 » Sun Aug 15, 2004 8:57 pm

Thanks Schelaq, I've really enjoyed the info you've provided us ;-D
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Sun Aug 15, 2004 8:57 pm

Nice to see my man Marty Booker in there. Hopefully he bounces back this year.
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good article thanks

Postby INKcogKNEEdough » Sun Aug 15, 2004 9:26 pm

I have always been a pretty big believer in the "3rd year WR" breakout theory , but this year i am not very impressed with the possibilities. Not only because of the players but it seems EVERYONE is on that theory nowadays. Perhaps they always were and i just didnt know it, but i hear it mentioned all the time. For that reason i think this year i am going to shift my focus a little bit to Wr that are just off that 3rd year level. Players like Andre Johnson who i am high on and Jerry porter whom i like better than all three of those year 3 WR's.


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Postby Schelaq » Sun Aug 15, 2004 10:21 pm

I have a few other tid-bits on WR's, nothing ground braking... you want it or should i go on to QB's/TE's?
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