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Tight end strategy.

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Tight end strategy.

Postby kevster1 » Thu Aug 19, 2004 9:09 pm

I have been in a 12 team league for the past 8 years, and if there is only one constant for myself. it has been I have always been saddled with nonproductive TE's This year with the 8th pick, I may be able to get Gonzales with the 3rd rd 8th pick. I don't think this is too early considering what I believe will be a very deep draft for mid level receiver's. If Gonzales repeats last years production it will be like having 4 receiver's It seem's most team owner's view TE's as an afterthought. I was wondering what strategy would you employ in regards to drafting TE's :,-(
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Postby KingGhidra » Thu Aug 19, 2004 9:15 pm

Your analysis is correct. Receivers run very deep and you can wait many rounds and come up with the same productive WR you can find in round four. It's much more difficult to do that for TEs and Gonzalez is as consistent as they come at that position. The only question is, knowing your league's draft tendencies, do you think Gonzo will be there at 4.05?
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Postby Budman_ffc » Thu Aug 19, 2004 9:18 pm

Hmmmm.....T-GO in the 3rd round? Seems like that is about where he is going right now. Seems like a bit too high for me, but the list below shows that I am not the majority.


AVG draft position last 4 days

25. Ward, Hines
26. Johnson, Chad
27. Bennett, Michael
28. Moss, Santana
29. Gonzalez, Tony
30. Barber, Tiki NYG
31. Hasselbeck, Matt
32. Westbrook, Brian
33. Mason, Derrick
34. Horn, Joe
35. Coles, Laveranues
36. Jones, Kevin
That's my two cents and it's worth every penny of it!

Semper Fi!
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Postby kevster1 » Thu Aug 19, 2004 10:07 pm

I don't think he will be around at 4-5. I also believe that Todd Heap, and the overrated Shockey will not be around at 5-8
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Postby Wolverine » Thu Aug 19, 2004 10:54 pm

I am of the opinion this year after much in-depth probing that Todd Heap a full round later than Gonzalez will net you better value in 2004. Here is why I think that:

* Gonzo's foot injury

* The development of Kris Wilson as a good backup TE

* KC will be playing with the lead a lot and may opt to bench Gonzo and play Wilson to get him experience and save Gonzo and his ailing foot for the playoffs.

It's just a hunch that these combined factors will reduce Gonzo's production by 10-20% in '04.


On the Todd Heap front, he played with a muddled QB situation last year and was targeted the most by TE's at 125 over the season (24 times more than Gonzo). The difference here was that Heap's conversion percentage was only 46%. That had a lot more to do with bad throws than bad hands. Considering that Boller had a full year to mature and get more comfortable as an NFL QB, I expect that percentage to improve by at least 5 percentage points.


While I was all ready to take Gonzo in the 3rd round this year, I put these factors together and talked myself into taking a RB/WR in Round 3 and getting Heap in Round 4 which I think will net me better value in the end.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:04 pm

Heap in round 4 is not good value. Round 6th we will start talking.
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Postby Wolverine » Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:23 pm

From AntSports 12-team ADP:

Player Name
Position
Team
Average Draft Position
High Pick
Low Pick
Number of Drafts

1. Tony Gonzalez TE KCC 3.10.00 3.01 4.10 17
2. Todd Heap TE BAL 4.09.67 4.04 5.05 18
3. Jeremy Shockey TE NYG 5.07.78 4.06 7.06 18
4. Kellen Winslow TE CLE 5.10.67 4.07 6.11 18
5. Alge Crumpler TE ATL 7.05.96 5.09 9.07 23



As you can see, out of 18 mock drafts Heap never made it to the 6th round. Waiting until then to try and draft him will almost assure you that Heap won't be on your squad.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Thu Aug 19, 2004 11:28 pm

Oh well. Let someone reach for him while you stock up some nice depth at RB and WR is my philosphy on Todd Heap.
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Postby Dub-Dub » Fri Aug 20, 2004 11:03 am

I agree with the original assessment - the depth at WR makes taking T. Gon early okay. The point value difference is worth it
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shockey

Postby migarvin » Fri Aug 20, 2004 2:14 pm

overrated shockey? Are you dumb - he will be the top tightend this year and mark my words. Just tune into his rookie year vs the texans and you'll see why he's the most dominant.

stockey's stats: (first 2 years)

2002 NY Giants 15 74 894 59.6 12.1 30 5.8 49 2 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 3 2
2003 NY Giants 9 48 535 59.4 11.1 46 4.0 29 2 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1

gonzo's stats
(first 2 years and last 2 years)

1997 Kansas City 16 33 368 23.0 11.2 30 4.5 21 2 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
1998 Kansas City 16 59 621 38.8 10.5 32 3.9 33 2 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 3 1
2002 Kansas City 16 63 773 48.3 12.3 42 4.3 39 7 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
2003 Kansas City 16 71 916 57.3 12.9 67 4.9 48 10 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0

If he stays healthy he'll be the best contingent on manning hitting him int he redzone more than twice.

Why burn a 3rd round pick on gonzo whne you can get shockey in the 5th?
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