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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Aug 24, 2004 1:11 pm

Free Bagel wrote:The JJ draft back before Eddie went to Dallas is a good example of what I'm talking about.

The idea was to wait till the 4th/5th to get your #2 RB and take JJ as that. JJ was in a much better situation than KJ, yet the strategy still entailed stacking up on RB's later to back up JJ since you were starting a rookie.

You essentially did the JJ draft, with a player in a worse situation, 3 times over, without taking the backups.


nope - I said from the beginning JJones wouldnt be a good pick for fantasy this yr and that Dallas was going to get another RB. Look at my past posts if you want confirmation.

I never thought the Dallas situation was better than Detroits - not for a second. Maybe that was your first mistake.

Situations, not generalizations my friend.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Aug 24, 2004 2:11 pm

migarvin wrote:I'm tired of hearing this argument so lets make a couple of things clear. Cornbread is risking his season on 3 rookies, which is not a greatest idea but not any different than half the other fantasy strategies out there. But for Bagel to argue that its not a good idea based on rookie performances from the past several years (with conflicting data) is not persuading anyone.

to narrow this down a bit more. Winslow is not your typical rookie, either is fitz. And kjones is, as corn said, going to one of the most favorable situations for a rookie rb in years. He had a similar grade to duckett and green (green was moderately successfull - just shy of 1,000 yards and had 6 td's, not bad fantasy production) but kjones has an o-line that ownership invested millions in and first round talent along with 2 ill receivers to stretch the field. Fitz will struggle this year but he clearly had one of the best college careers ever and is special talent. Will he have an up and down year? Most likely

The winslow argument is futile because i'm sure bagel would have taken him a couple of roudns later. ABsolutely a top 10 tightend talent and shoudl be top 5 behind heap, gonzo, shockey


Perhaps, 3 of thse supposed predictions will not come to fruition, but its not any bigger of a risk becasue they're rookies than selecting playes in new sistuations: duce, westbrook, chris brown, t owens, rudi johnson, t jones, henry and mcgahee, etc...


5 freaking pages and you're still missing the point.

Lets say Brown is your #2 RB, or Mcgahee (hell if mcgahee is your #2 then your team sucks ;)), or TJ, you're gonna make sure you have someone behind him. Cornbread does not have a single person on his that's reliable enough to plug in should any of THREE rookies not pan out.

And saying it's no different than players in new situations is retarded. A new situation of changing teams is much different than a new situation of going from playing Rutgers 120lb. 6.4sec 40 LB's to playing an NFL team.
Last edited by Free Bagel on Tue Aug 24, 2004 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue Aug 24, 2004 2:11 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:The JJ draft back before Eddie went to Dallas is a good example of what I'm talking about.

The idea was to wait till the 4th/5th to get your #2 RB and take JJ as that. JJ was in a much better situation than KJ, yet the strategy still entailed stacking up on RB's later to back up JJ since you were starting a rookie.

You essentially did the JJ draft, with a player in a worse situation, 3 times over, without taking the backups.


nope - I said from the beginning JJones wouldnt be a good pick for fantasy this yr and that Dallas was going to get another RB. Look at my past posts if you want confirmation.

I never thought the Dallas situation was better than Detroits - not for a second. Maybe that was your first mistake.

Situations, not generalizations my friend.


Seriously dude, if you don't re-read the freaking post and actually pay attention to what was being said in it I'm not even going to bother reading this anymore...
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Aug 24, 2004 2:37 pm

I understand now - its a matter of how we value different players.

You think Deshawn Foster and Emmitt Smith are suitable backups for Henry and DDavis in a keeper league.

But you dont think SJackson and Duckett are suitable backups for Dillon and KJones.

ok. so - your shakey starting RBs are better than my shakey starting RBs and your backup RBs are better than mine?

Emitt will have a much "safer" season than Duckett?
Foster is a better "sleeper" than SJackson?

Which argument is it? That rookie RBs dont succeed (DDavis)? or is it that I didnt back them up properly (Duckett v Emmitt)? Maybe its that all rookies suck regardless of situation and talent? Im not sure at this point.

<just shakes his head point and walks away>
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 3:43 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:TJones - was backup to Pittman. Similar situation to KJones?



This is the comparison I would draw.

Tjones = KJones
Pittman = Pinner/Bryson
Cardinals = Lions

I believe Kevin Jones is lightyears more talented than Thomas, but is he really thrust into a great opportunity playing for the Lion's? Don't forget the Lions have ranked as the #32 rushing attack in 2 of the last 3 years...
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Aug 24, 2004 3:54 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:TJones - was backup to Pittman. Similar situation to KJones?



This is the comparison I would draw.

Tjones = KJones
Pittman = Pinner/Bryson
Cardinals = Lions

I believe Kevin Jones is lightyears more talented than Thomas, but is he really thrust into a great opportunity playing for the Lion's? Don't forget the Lions have ranked as the #32 rushing attack in 2 of the last 3 years...


Ouch. That is harsh.

and probably very wrong.
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Postby Kensat30 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 4:27 pm

Now that I've chimed in in the Bagel vs. Cornbread royal rumble, I might as well add in my reasons behind the picks in my draft. My basic strategy was to play it safe in the first half of the draft and then to take the majority of my risks in the late-middle rounds. My goal was to get a solid starting lineup and then pickup backup players who have keeper potential for next year and/or could break into my starting lineup.

1) Deuce- Was never a question in my mind of who I was going to select here. If for some reason someone passed up Priest, I would have selected him, but I had a very strong feeling I would be choosing between Deuce, SA, and Portis here. I would have loved to go with Portis in this spot, but in a league that is this competitive you can't afford to have a #1 pick that has never completed a full 16 game season. Deuce's pass catching ability was the deciding factor.

2) H.Ward- Initially I was hoping that a Faulk or a Rudi would fall to me at this pick, but there was a HUGE run on WRs in the 2nd round and I felt that Ward was my last chance at getting a solid #1 WR in a 3 WR league. I wasn't confident in any of the remaining RBs, especially in a keeper league, so I decided to take the solid WR.

3) T.Barber- I really hate this pick. I was hoping that Stephen Davis would fall to me in the early 3rd but it didn't happen. So I was basically stuck with reaching on a 2nd RB because I feared a TON of RBs would be snatched up before my next pick. I was half a second away from drafting Chris Brown with the 3.04 before I came to my senses and went with the proven performer. I still hate this pick though.

4) D.Jackson- I felt really fortunate to get the strong #2 WR here in D.Jackson. This is the type of player I love to have in my #2 WR, a boom or bust guy that has the ability to put up huge points on any given week. I saw a few RBs on the list that I was happy I could get with my swing-back pick so I jumped on Jackson.

5) L.Suggs- I really lucked out drafting this guy. I've been on the fence as to whether or not I've wanted this guy, a Cleveland Brown's RB, on my team. After seeing clips of him run in preseason, I became a believer that he can make an impact. This is the best pick of my draft right here, a possible #2 RB to start if Barber has problems and a potential keeper for next year.

6) B.Favre- This is a pick that I'm happy with. I knew I was going to select a QB with this pick it was just a question of who would fall to me. Trent Green would have been the ultimate pickup here, but I knew in my heart that it was not to be. I saw KingGhidra sitting there 2 picks ahead of me and knew I had 0% spot at getting him, and this proved to be the case. Still I'm happy with landing Gunslinging Brett Favre. I just hope those INTs don't come back to bite me in the ass.

7) R. Smith- I view this as a semi-steal as I am high on Rod Smith this year. As I've watched the Bronco's situation develop throughout preseason (who hasn't) I've been reinforcing my thoughts on Rod Smith. Although he is old in age, I think Rod still has it in him to haul in 80-90 receptions. Lelie can't catch, Chamberlein is a sucker's pick IMO, and Darius Watts is still a rookie. Someone has to catch first downs on this team and I think it will be Rod Smith, Rod Smith, Rod Smith.

8) T.Bell- I felt this was my last shot at taking a possible keeper RB for next year. After the run on young backup RBs in the previous round: J.Jones, S.Jackson, W.Mcgahee, and D.Foster I was kind of surprised that Bell flew under the radar. Although I don't expect him to start at all this season, he could be a pleasant surprise by the time the playoffs roll around.

9) J.Galloway- This is by no means a glamourous pick, but I feel very confident in Galloway as a backup WR. Galloway has proven earlier in his career that he is a talented player and I think a lot of people forgot about him when he got thrust into the fantasy WR wasteland known as the Dallas Cowboy's. The Buc's are dealing with injuries, holdouts, and rookies at WR and Galloway is the guy I feel will step up to become the main option on that team.

10) J.Plummer- On hindsight, I'm not sure this was a smart pick in a league that penalizes INTs so harshly. I looked at the remaining QB picks and I felt that Plummer would be an effective guy for me. Added bonus: during Favre's week 9 bye week, Denver faces off against the Texans ;-D .

11) M.Muhammad- Who? This was probably my biggest reach of the draft, with the exception of Tiki Barber ugh, but I felt that some other owner might be eyeing this guy as well. Jake Delhomme has impressed me towards the end of the season last year and this preseason and I think that the Panther's could become a more balanced team this year. Although most people regard Steve Smith as the only WR option in Carolina, Mushin Muhammad is quietly one of the better #2 WRs in the league. Very confident in him as a #5 WR this year.

12) J.Fargas- Initially I was going to go with a solid producer like Moe Williams or Mike Alstott in my #5 RB slot, but I figured I was solid enough there to take another shot at a possible RB keeper. Fargas has impressed me when I watch him play and I don't understand why the Raider's don't utilize him more in their offense. My hope is that during the season Wheatley will falter or get injured and that Fargas takes the job and never looks back. I'm not expecting to start him at all this season, but I feel he is well worth the late 12th round pick.

13) F.Jones- I almost bypassed F.Jones because I figured I could get him a round or two later, but then I asked myself "Why be greedy?" Jones was the guy I was targeting all along as my TE. This guy has got the athletisim of a WR and the body of a TE. Now that Arizona is relying on a rookie as their #1 WR, yet again, I feel that their TE should be a frequently thrown to target. Freddie has just as good a chance as anybody to be the #4 ranked TE at the end of the year.

14) Atlanta- Defenses were coming off the board a little earlier than expected and I missed out on my targeted defense 2 rounds earlier (Jacksonville). Out of all the defenses left, I really like Atlanta's aggressive blitzing schemes and I think that they may very well become a leader in the NFL in turnovers this season.

15) K.Washington- This is my standard last round sleeper pick this year. Washington is really flying under the radar because most people figure Peter Warrick is a lock on the #2 WR spot in Cincinnati. I believe that Washington is even more talented than Warrick and that he will see signinficantly more playing time as the season progresses. If Chad Johnson or Warrick were to get injured early in the season, I have confidence that Washington could step up and be the guy for the Bengal's. Very solid #6 WR.

16) M.Grammatica- Automatica? Not after last season. I guess I'm just reliving the glory days when this guy was a top pick for a kicker. Ho-hum I don't really care who I end up with at this position, I'll probably end up picking up a WW kicker during the season anyways.
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Postby Canacuna » Tue Aug 24, 2004 5:40 pm

Here's The 'Cuna's analysis of his draft...

1. Shaun Alexander - I was having a tough time deciding between SA and Edgerrin James in this spot. It was also hard to pass up on Clinton Portis, but like Kensat mentioned, I prefer my #1 guy to have a decent shot at playing all 16 games - Portis would stub his toe and miss two weeks... Anyway, I thought that SA was the safest pick here.

2. Marshall Faulk - it was a tough choice for me deciding between Marshall and Hines Ward. I probably would have taken Ward had I known there would be seven WRs taken in the second round. I think that barring injury, Marshall is a lock to be a top ten RB and I couldn't pass him up.

3. Tony Gonzalez - I was originally planning on taking a WR here, but Steve Smith was the last WR that I could take at this point... and I thought Gonzo was the safer pick here.

4. Michael Bennett - at this point in the draft I'm kicking myself for not taking Hines Ward. I thought for sure he'd be gone at this point and I think he's a serviceable #2 RB. I wanted to take a WR here, but aside from the fact that Bennett is great value in the fourth round, my only real options at WR were Darrell Jackson and Peerless Price...

5. Matt Hasselbeck - I usually hate taking QBs early, but when I compared Hass to the other WRs available (Toomer, K-Rob, and Plax), I had to take him.

6. Anquan Boldin - yeah, I know he's injured... I may have taken him a round or two early, but I was desperate for a decent WR (only Marty Booker and Donte Stallworth were left - I'm not high on Booker in Miami and I've never been a fan of Stallworth). If Boldin can come back from his injury around Week 5 and put up numbers at least somewhat comparable to last years, I think I'll be okay at WR.

7. Isaac Bruce - he's my #1 WR for the first few weeks of the season. He's not the stud he used to be, but I'll take some decent yardage numbers and the occasional TD.

8. Brandon Lloyd - I think he'll fair alright this year - maybe even put up some mini-Anquan Boldin of '03 numbers. San Francisco will be trailing a lot, so he should at least see some opportunities in garbage time and catch-up mode.

9. William Green - value pick...

10. David Givens - I think that he's the best WR in New England. Granted, Tom Brady spreads the ball around, but I think Givens is a decent guy to have on the team.

11. Robert Ferguson - ...I'm REALLY desperate for WRs...

12. Eddie Kennison - ...still REALLY desperate for WRs... He might be decent - at least Kansas City is a high scoring team.

13. Ryan Longwell - I wanted a good kicker with a late bye week - this d00d is both.

14. Mike Anderson - a potential starting RB, although I'm not counting on it. If something happens to Griffin, Anderson should be good (assuming Hearst or Bell isn't brought in) - or I 'spose he could be traded to Miami (doubtful).

15. Mike Alstott - he's the best RB in Tampa... that's not saying much, though.

16. St. Louis DEF - no comment...

Overall, I wouldn't say I have the best team. My WRs are pretty awful right now. I think I drafted a lot of guys who could prove to be more valuable than where they were drafted. I might be working on a deal or two to bring me at someone who's a capable #2 WR on most teams. ...I'm not too worried about my WRs, though - I think that the rest of my team is capable enough of putting up some huge fantasy pointage.
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Postby 49ers Forever » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:29 pm

I tried to post as a guest and say that I had the best draft, only to find out I could not post as a guest. :~(

I think I did all right in the midst of all these gurus, the fact that nobody has said, "What the f%$* was 9ers thinking?" makes me a little happier. Of course, the mods could have deleted that post.

Anyhow, 9th pick is a little strenuous, especially when the eighth pick is moss. I took a chance taking Lewis over Taylor, but then again, maybe Taylor gets injured. I know it has been 32 games, but still. Also, I can't count the number of times that Cuna grabbed the guy I was holding off on right before I was gonna snag him. There were no real surprises in the draft. A couple of chance picks on keepers, but otherwise a pretty solid endeavor. If anyone has any thoughts they would like to share on my draft, post em up! Cool, later
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Postby goleafsgo96 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 6:40 pm

GOLEAFSGO96's LEAGUE CHAMPION PREDICTION: Freebagel.
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