Learning from the Past- Rudi and Dillon to break out? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Learning from the Past- Rudi and Dillon to break out?

Moderator: Football Moderators

Learning from the Past- Rudi and Dillon to break out?

Postby VHawk15 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:55 pm

As many of you know, Stephen Davis and Jamal Lewis, both dubbed as second rounders by the consensus, broke out big in 2003 and were both top 7ish RB's, depending on your scoring system. This obviously isn't the first time that two players thought to be top 15 RB's turned out to be more like top 8 RB's.

So this season, I've tried to find two RB's that are almost always drafted in the second round that compare to Davis and Lewis. The results were quite interesting. Warning, this is a fairly long post, but it's worth the read, so be prepared.

The first parallel that I will attempt to draw is one between Stephen Davis and Corey Dillon. There are tons of similarities between Davis before 2003 and Dillon before 2004. First, one that is fairly obvious, is that they both found new teams. Davis went from Washington, where he was being "misused" to Carolina, where he was used as a workhorse. The same thing could be said of Dillon, who left Cincy where he definitely thought he was being misused, to New England, where he is expected to be a workhorse.

One thing that is pretty obvious is how alike Carolina was last year and New England is this year. Last season, people praised Carolina's tough defense but there was a definite issue with the #1 WR. In almost all the fantasy magazines I've read from last season, they've cited "WR corps is lacking a top threat." And while I'm not saying that Deion Branch will break out and be a top 15 fantasy WR next year like Steve Smith, the similarities are intriguing. And clearly, New England is regarded as one of the top defenses in the league just as Carolina was last year.

Another similarity is the injuries. In 2002, Stephen Davis missed four games with a shoulder injury and that was listed as a reason that he may not do so well in 2003. Some people are saying the same thing about Corey Dillon this year, because he missed a few games due to injury last season with the Bengals.

And the last piece of evidence, something that's a little scary, is how similar they are in "personal information." At the beginning of last season, Stephen Davis was 29. I'm sure you can guess how old Dillon is now, before the start of the 2004 season. Davis stands at about 6 feet, and weighs 230. Dillon is almost an identical 6'1 and 225 pounds.


Now, I'll move on to comparing Rudi Johnson to Jamal Lewis. Because of Lewis' incredible 2000+ yard season last year, it's tough to compare anyone still active to him, but I'll try. Both backs in their previous seasons (Lewis in 2002, Rudi in 2003) showed sparks of brilliance but were simply too unproven to be drafted in the first round.

One thing that immediately jumps out at you about the two is their situation on their teams. You might be thinking, "Well how did Lewis' situation last year compare to this season, when some suspect Perry will take carries away from Rudi?". If you're thinking that, then you're forgetting about supposed threat of Musa Smith. That's right, last year many magazines and websites claimed to be afraid that Baltimore would use Musa Smith, their newly drafted rookie RB (ala Chris Perry) and he could steal touches away from Lewis. Freaky, eh?

Another thing about the two is their style of play. They're both big, pound-it-out type backs who like to run between the tackles. Also, neither one is very good at receptions. This is a very profound similarity, because we all know how many times both Lewis and Johnson are brought up for their bad hands. Also, when I say they're both big backs, I mean that they, like Dillon/Davis, are almost the exact same size.

Lewis before 2003 season- 24 years old, 5-11, 231 pounds
Rudi before 2004 season- 24 years old, 5-10, 235 pounds

Weird, huh? There's also the QB situation. After the 2002 season, Baltimore fans were saying "What? Redman? Boller?". Of course, this is very similar to the reaction of Cincy fans after 2003 with their cries of "What? Kitna? Palmer". As we know, the Ravens QB situation worked itself out, and it looks as if Cincy's has done the same.

So that's all for now, folks. Please comment, and especially chime in if you have more similarities to add. Remember, I'm not suggesting you drafted Rudi or Dillon in the 1st round, but if you grab them in the second, be aware that they have a shot at being the next break-out player.

Oh, and just for Ghidra's sake, I'd just like to mention that all four RB's went to college in the SEC (besides Dillon, of course).
Last edited by VHawk15 on Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Image


The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all the people. -Noam Chomsky
VHawk15
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Blackjack ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 9483
Joined: 8 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: In the V-Nest

Postby fiz » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:59 pm

8-o - wow vhawk. i cant wait to see if your theory is right...and something tells me it is. ;-D
fiz
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 317
Joined: 24 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: chillin' out maxin' and relaxin' all cool and all shooting some bball outside of the school

Postby deftdelivery » Tue Aug 24, 2004 8:59 pm

Very intriguing post, V. As always, your work will be not be overlooked. ;-D
[url=http://www.studio-seraph.com/forums]Image[/url]
YOUR movie resource - sign up at the forums


[color=green]PS I'll find my frog[/color]
deftdelivery
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3494
Joined: 25 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: CURRENT FAV MOVIE: Boondock Saints

Postby portisfan24 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:03 pm

nice post, hawk. yes I do believe in the whole history repeats itself theory. however, a case could be made for probably the top 20 or so rbs. this was an intriguing argument though. I wouldnt be all that suprised if smething like this happens
Image
portisfan24
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 6196
Joined: 4 May 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Canada

Postby Mercer Boy » Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:10 pm

Yeah, that was pretty cool V...I (unlike Ghidra) think that Dillon will do really well. If he stays healthy, I think he'll be able to put up the same numbers he has done for years (1300+ yards); the TD's are going to be the make or break stat.

Rudi's got some tough D's to run against, but he's also got some bad ones! I'm sure he'll be able to take over Dillon's place in Bengal-land, so I ranked him among the top #2 backs.
The One, the Only, the Incomparable Mercer Boy.
My My YouTube.
Mercer Boy
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 12045
Joined: 22 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: New Castle, PA

Postby MadScott » Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:49 pm

Great post V! Just out of curiosity, I wonder how Henry would stack up in your Rudi/JLew comparison.
Image
I like simple pleasures, like butter in my ass, lollipops in my mouth. That's just me.
MadScott
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5924
Joined: 27 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Mxlplyk » Tue Aug 24, 2004 9:55 pm

I found vhawk15's post intriguing but it didn't sell me on either Rudi Johnson or Dillion. While I think both will have decent years, it is not fair to compare either to there counterpart especially the comparison of Rudi to Lewis.

I do think Rudi Johnson has a decent chance to have a very good year but it will not be because he is similiar to Lewis.

1) Lewis is an elite back by NFL standards. And the only reason he went late in 2002 was because he missed the entire 2001 season with a shredded knee. It had nothing to do with talent.

2) Lewis last year was a beacon of greatness on a horrible offense. You might say that he made 2000 yds last year more because he had a great defense.

3) The question marks about Rudi is not his situation but rather talent. I think he plays on one of the more dynamic offenses in the league. He has a very solid line, 3 very good WRs, and a decent QB. NOw if Palmer implodeds, Kitna is right there to pick up where he was the last 2 years. I just ask myself all the time, "Is he actually good". I don't ask myself that about Jamal Lewis.


Thoughts?


mxlplyk
Mxlplyk
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 10
Joined: 9 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Postby VHawk15 » Tue Aug 24, 2004 10:05 pm

Mxlplyk wrote:I just ask myself all the time, "Is he actually good". I don't ask myself that about Jamal Lewis.


Of course you don't. In fact, I doubt you can find anyone in the whole Cafe who questions Lewis' talent. But did they last year?

While holding four magazines from last season in my hand, and having my browser set to two fantasy sites with opinions from last year, I would say probably so.

And while the injuries played a role in his low ranking last year, I don't think it was because people were afraid he wouldn't be 100% or that he would reaggravate something. They were afraid because the injuries limited Lewis' touches in the few seasons he'd been in the league and with limited touches, a player is deemed unproven.

Sounds like Rudi, huh?
Image


The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all the people. -Noam Chomsky
VHawk15
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Blackjack ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 9483
Joined: 8 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: In the V-Nest

Postby V-unit » Tue Aug 24, 2004 10:14 pm

nice post Vhawk.
I had my doubts about Rudi but the more im hearing about his situation the more i like him.Im just having a hard time in deciding to pick Barlow, Rudi or Henry.
V-unit
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1115
Joined: 20 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Mxlplyk » Tue Aug 24, 2004 10:36 pm

Sorry VHawk15,

I just don't agree. I picked J. Lewis last year, 2nd pick in the 2nd round. And yes, he was not one of my Top 5 backs, but the reason he slipped on my board was not the fact that he was unproven. I think he provided ample proof his rookie year in 2000 when he combined with that great defense carried Balt to the superbowl. As well as 2002 when he had over 350 touches. Both years accumulating over 1600+ and 1700+ yds respectively.

If anything, the reason he was ranked so low last year was because of that shitty offense and the fact he was known as a back that couldn't get in the endzone.

People are scared when good runningbacks play on bad offenses. By all means, they should be. They hate turning on a game and seeing there runningback on the bench because they are down by 14 in the 4th quarter.

Again, I am sorry. A guy with two prior 1600+ yd seasons, and the building block of a franchise to me is considered PROVEN.

A guy who essentially gained 65% of his 2003 rushing yds against San Fran, KC, Seattle, and Houston is considered UNPROVEN.


mxlplyk
Mxlplyk
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 10
Joined: 9 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 23:34 hours
(and 42 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact