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Opinions on this TE cheat sheet

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Postby shortsavage » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:19 am

Lofunzo wrote:
Impressionable wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:IMHO, Winslow is a stud. I love Heap's talent but question whether he will get the ball enough. TE is thin. I would go Gonzalez, Winslow, a healthy Shockey, and Heap. Don't overvalue Winslow but also don't sell yourself short. :-?


Winslow is a stud, he's also a headcase that can commonly be his own worse enemy. If he can become a workhorse, he'll be a top TE, but there's a lot of lingering questions.


Compared to who else is out there, I'll take my chances on Winslow. He is cocky and determined to have the best rookie season ever for a TE. Shockey had the attitude but turned out O.K. during his rookie season, didn't he??


I agree with Lofunzo 100%. Kellen Winslow could end up being such an impact player at a position where hardly anyone makes an impact. His athletic ability alone (in comparision to the other tight ends in the league) makes him a hot commodity.
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:33 am

I would also move Gates up a tier and drop the Chosen One down a tier.

The point with Winslow is that he could very well come into the league and be the best TE. But Winslow is being drafted in the 5th round. I wouldn't take a rookie WR in the 5th and certainly don't want to risk it on a TE.
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Postby GMoney » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:47 am

yes but the reason you wont take a rookie WR in the 5th round is because they will be lucky to break top 50 at thier position.... winslow will not have that problem.....

also rookie WRs have to learn to beat NFL corners, and run NFL routes.... winslow has to out run a linebacker.... he wont have much trouble with that.....

take winslow his upside is soooooo big he warrants the 3rd pick for a TE
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:56 am

But taking Winslow in the 5th is taking a gamble that he will put up Heap-like numbers. He won't. Upside doesn't win fantasy football it just gives us something to talk about during pre-season. ;-)
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Postby GMoney » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:04 am

upside does win FF...... THATS IS WHAT WINS LEAGUES!!!

tell you what illl give you this team.

QB - Brady
RB - Tiki, and Cu Mart
WR - Toomer, and Jimmy Smith
TE - crumpler... whoever

and ill take

Pennington
DD and Barlow
S Moss and Andre Johnson
and Winslow

now..... those guys are all being drafted around similar times, and if even half of my team lives to their "upside" i win.

taking a risk is the only way to win FF leagues.... risk/reward.
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Postby shortsavage » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:12 am

Touche GMoney ;-D .
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:17 am

We'll just have to agree to disagree. You listed 5 players who have proven they can play in the NFL and compared them to a player who has not taken a snap in an official game.

Take Pennington, for instance. I will agree that this is a great example of upside being valuable. Most of us will agree that barring injury he'll be very good this year and most likely break the top 10. But he isn't being drafted very high. So he is a great value pick with a ton of upside. If his upside pans out than we got a lot of value out of this pick. If he doesn't than we didn't lose that much.

That is a very different situation than selecting Winslow in the 5th round. You are banking that his upside will produce Heap-like output (based on my valuations). The risk is so great that the reward isn't that valuable IMO.
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Postby GMoney » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:20 am

well then maybe vick is a better example....

hes being drafted high.
hasnt really shown us much
but the man has amazing talent and potential and is definately worth a look in the late 2nd round (where he is being drafted)

if winslow is half what everyone thinks he is... hes still the number 4 TE this year.... with 600 and 5 ish... thats not much risk for the 5th round if you ask me
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Postby Lofunzo » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:31 am

I'm glad that someone brought up Heap because I didn't want to. I rolled the dice this year with Winslow when Heap was still on the board. It's a gamble but 1 that I felt was worth it. I had Heap last year and liked, but didn't love, him. He would have a nice week and follow it up with 1 catch for 7 yards. I see more explosiveness than Heap.
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Postby IRON CHEF » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:56 am

I would keep Winslow in the second tier, but I rarely ever draft him because others pounce at him too early.

Amazinz is right, given the risk involved with taking him to early there is a little reward, because he would have to do very well to even equal the value he has being taken there.
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