Kensat30 wrote:Do you guys really believe Jamal Robertson will have as much of an effect on Barlow as Antowain Smith will have on Brown? I don't see Chris Brown as a lock for the amount of carries Barlow will receive.
Unless you expect Barlow's career ypc to go down by 25%+ this season, you are basically predicting that Chris Brown will have more rushing attempts than Barlow. I just don't understand this logic at all.
OK - thats about right for Barlow - his YPC will decrease by a good 25%. Id say about 4 ypc is a good number to use. That being said - maybe 275 carries. 1100 rush yds. Add in 400 reception yds and I can see 1500 total yds, 8-10 TDs.
I think CBrown and TJones will put up simialr numbers. Basically, taking Barlow in the high 2nd rd is a waste when CBrown and Tjones are available a couple rds later.
What about receiving yds on all these RBs listed - shouldnt total yds be used here rather than just rushing yds?
Thomas Jones
900 yards rushing, 5 TD's, 400 receiving 1 TD
Kevin Jones
1,100 yards rushing, 6 TD's, 200 receiving 1 TD
Chris Brown
1,200 yards rushing, 8 TD's, 200 receiving, 0 TD's
Michael Bennett (depends on his health way too much to guess)
Even if Bennett only misses week 1, I can't see him topping 8 TD's with Moe Williams getting the goal-line carries. 1,300 rushing and 500 receiving should be attainable if he gets the majority of the carries though.
Barlow- 1150, 9 TDs with essentially no one to share the backfield duties
KJones- 1020, 6 TDs, same situation as Barlow
TJones- 850, 4 TDs, as down on A-Train as the team may be, he is talented enough not to keep him out of the rotation and TJ has been a disappointment so far
Chris Brown- 1100, 6 TDs
Bennett- 900, 5 TDs, just too many guys to share the backfield with and has yet to play a full season.
Thomas Jones - I see no reason why TJ won't put up similiar or better numbers then Barlow this year. Chicago's O-line is much better, there defense is better, and there entire team is better. TJ's is the main back in Chicago, he will not share carries with anyone else, he will get all the goal-line carries as well. I expect 1500+ total yards, and over 10 tds.
Some advice, get on the TJ bandwagon.
Chris Brown - Will have a good amount of rushing yards, 1300+. But he has lost the goal-line carries in the preseason to Smith. That really downgrades him in my rankings. If he isn't getting the goal-line carries there is no way he will get close to 10 tds. I think around 6 tds is more accurate for Brown.
Kensat30 wrote:Do you guys really believe Jamal Robertson will have as much of an effect on Barlow as Antowain Smith will have on Brown? I don't see Chris Brown as a lock for the amount of carries Barlow will receive.
Unless you expect Barlow's career ypc to go down by 25%+ this season, you are basically predicting that Chris Brown will have more rushing attempts than Barlow. I just don't understand this logic at all.
OK - thats about right for Barlow - his YPC will decrease by a good 25%. Id say about 4 ypc is a good number to use. That being said - maybe 275 carries. 1100 rush yds. Add in 400 reception yds and I can see 1500 total yds, 8-10 TDs.
I think CBrown and TJones will put up simialr numbers. Basically, taking Barlow in the high 2nd rd is a waste when CBrown and Tjones are available a couple rds later.
What about receiving yds on all these RBs listed - shouldnt total yds be used here rather than just rushing yds?
I purposely left receiving yardage out, because frankly Barlow will dominate Chris Brown in this category. I mean Barlow had something like 40-50 catches with an 8+ ypa and he was featured in only 4 games!
I also find it pretty ridiculous that you think Barlow will only receive 275 carries in SF this year when clearly he should be well over 300. I'll give you the 4.0ypc number due to the changes that the Niner's had this offseason, but I would be very surprised if Barlow had the lowest ypc average of his career. Barlow rushed for 4.1 ypc in his rookie year in 2000 and has steadily improved his #s in every subsequent year since then.
Kensat30 wrote:Do you guys really believe Jamal Robertson will have as much of an effect on Barlow as Antowain Smith will have on Brown? I don't see Chris Brown as a lock for the amount of carries Barlow will receive.
Unless you expect Barlow's career ypc to go down by 25%+ this season, you are basically predicting that Chris Brown will have more rushing attempts than Barlow. I just don't understand this logic at all.
OK - thats about right for Barlow - his YPC will decrease by a good 25%. Id say about 4 ypc is a good number to use. That being said - maybe 275 carries. 1100 rush yds. Add in 400 reception yds and I can see 1500 total yds, 8-10 TDs.
I think CBrown and TJones will put up simialr numbers. Basically, taking Barlow in the high 2nd rd is a waste when CBrown and Tjones are available a couple rds later.
What about receiving yds on all these RBs listed - shouldnt total yds be used here rather than just rushing yds?
I purposely left receiving yardage out, because frankly Barlow will dominate Chris Brown in this category. I mean Barlow had something like 40-50 catches with an 8+ ypa and he was featured in only 4 games!
I also find it pretty ridiculous that you think Barlow will only receive 275 carries in SF this year when clearly he should be well over 300. I'll give you the 4.0ypc number due to the changes that the Niner's had this offseason, but I would be very surprised if Barlow had the lowest ypc average of his career. Barlow rushed for 4.1 ypc in his rookie year in 2000 and has steadily improved his #s in every subsequent year since then.
Yeah - im not sure about this thread - are people using total stats or rushing stats? It seems to me they are either using only rushing stats or have pretty pessimistic views on these RBs. Even if they are only using rush yds, why? Obviously total yds is a better measure. Regardless.
I think we have talked about Barlow before. You thinks its ridiculous to assume he will get anything lower than 300 carries, while I think its crazy to think Barlow will get over 300 carries as you think he will. My lower number is due to the theory that SF wont have the luxury of giving him that many chances. I simply think they will be forced to pass too much to be able to get Barlow 20-25 carries a game every week. I also think he will more than likely miss a game or two due to injuries.
I think his reception yards will be pretty average for him - about 400 rec yds - thats pretty good for a feature RB that can catch like Barlow. I stand by my prediction of 1500 total yds and 8-10 tds. I think thats a very fair projection for Barlow.
He is not LT. 5+ypc is a dream. SFs offense will hurt him. SFs defense will hurt him. He simply is one of the most overrated fantasy options right now. I think Ive said this a number of times before, but give me Bennett, Westbrook, CBrown, Griffin, etc... a rd or two or three after someone jumped for Barlow in the early 2nd rd. Thats a suckers pick.
The Jones TD totals may be high; probably about 12 combined ...
You also have to factor good receiving yardage for Barlow, let's say 450-500 with 3/4 TD ...
CBrown will have a big year in that offense; 1,200 + 9 TD
Bennett (inj) and KJones (rookie/Det offense) have great potential but more question marks. Hard to project at this time.
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by Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:11 pm 
