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Predict seasons for these runningbacks.

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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Tue Aug 31, 2004 12:23 pm

TJ with 15 tds and Barlow with 5? Wow no way unless Barlow gets hurt. He will have more than that. I am predicting at least 7, but more around 10-11.

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Postby Football » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:06 pm

Barlow will crash and burn as a starter, too many of his yards came from tired defenses last year and the 49ers as a team just suck too much. Others I have no strong opinions on.

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Postby Mudd » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:23 pm

chinch sacs wrote:
skinsfan wrote:Barlow: 1150yds, 5TD

Thomas Jones: 1250yds, 11TD
also 400recyds, 4TDs

KJones: 1000yds, 6TDs

CBrown: 450yds, 3TDs

Bennett:1100yds, 8TD

15 tds for TJ and 5 for Barllow? 8-o

Yeah, I think 15 tds for Jones is laughable.

After loosing Marty Booker, I don't see the Bear's O being much better than the 9ers.
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Postby bagobonez » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:43 pm

I think you all underestimate the 49ers defense some. They're not going to be spectacular, but it's not the Falcons or Chiefs' defense we're talking about. They have some talent in guys like Ahmed Plummer, Julian Peterson and Andre Carter. I think their defense is going to keep them in games at least until the middle of the 3rd quarter or so, allowing Barlow to get his carries early.

And then if the 49ers have to go pass heavy, Barlow can get receptions. It's a win/win situation.
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Postby Kensat30 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:04 am

I think a lot of people are buying into the 49ers suck argument when they evaluate Barlow. What a lot of people seem to forget is that EVERY team in the NFL runs about 1000 plays in a season, give or take 50. Even the most pass heavy teams in the league are GOING to rush the ball 400+ times. When you look at RBs you have to evaluate what % of carries said RBs will receive. If you think that the 49ers will be the 32nd ranked team in the league in rushing the ball this year, that puts the team at around 400 rushing attempts.

Personally, I don't buy into that considering they have one of the best blocking fullbacks in the game and an above average run-blocking o-line, especially on the left side.

worst case scenario: 275/400= 70% of the rushing attempts

What I'm trying to figure out is who gets the other 30% of the rushing attempts? Do you really believe Jamal Robertson and Fred Beasley are going to come in and get 125+ carries between them? That's nearly 10 carries a game to a fullback that has averaged 20 rushing attempts a year for the past 3 years and a 2nd year backup RB that has a total of 32 rushing attempts on his career.

The 275 number is assuming that the Niner's will be the VERY WORST rushing team in the league as well, more likely you're talking about splitting upwards of 150-175 carries between Beasley and Robertson. The only reasonable prediction I can see for that is if you are predicting a Barlow injury. We're talking about a RB that has missed 3 games in 3 seasons....

The reason Barlow is drafted in the second round is because generally, RBs who receive 300+ carries do not fall out of the top15 in the rankings no matter how bad their team is. Unless you are predicting a Troy Hambrick-esque season or an injury. Oh yeah, Barlow can also catch the football as well....
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