9er Fan wrote:Assuming this is a redraft league, I'd vote for Holmes with the #1 pick. Holmes by himself scored more TDs over the past two seasons than any other likely #1/#2 RB combination combined.
Let's say for instance you get Edge and Barlow (or fill in your favorite Barlow-ish RB). If all goes according to plan, you will probably score 20ish TDs. Holmes scored 27 last year and 24 the year before. End of story (unless you posess special powers and can see the future).
Your logic is somewhat flawed. For instance, lets compare a #1/#20 combo to a #10/#11 combo.
Last year Priest Holmes(#1) and Anthony Thomas(#20) combined for 484 fantasy points. Travis Henry(#10) and Fred Taylor(#11) combined for 452 fantasy points. Granted, I would take Holmes too if I had the chance, but it's very possible that the #10 and #11 pick (regardless of position) could end up being more productive that the #1 and #20 pick. If this wasn't true, the team that picked first would win all the time. I had Priest Holmes last year and finished 7th. The year before, I had Priest Holmes and finished 2nd (lost the championship game by 2 points
) Neither time did I pick Holmes in the first round.
As much as some of the people here don't like to admit it, luck plays a HUGE role in winning a fantasy football league. Especially, if all the people in the league are of the same caliber. Lets face it, Fantasy Football isn't Chess.