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Do Preseason Performances Mean Anything?

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Do Preseason Performances Mean Anything?

Postby drsteuss » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:03 am

I was arguing about this in another forum and wanted to see what other people thought.

My view is that preseason performances are largely meaningless and, in fact, end up misleading you more than helping you. But I know lots of other people disagree. Thoughts?
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Postby Plindsey88 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:32 am

Depends on the situation...

If a backup takes over in a preseason game and looks really good, it quite often will not mean much for that person fantasy-wise, unless the starter is fighting to keep his job... If you have a situation where two guys are dead even on a depth chart, and you are trying to evaluate which one will be the better player, then preseason can mean a whole lot...

And if you are in a situation where a starter has departed for whatever reason and you are trying to determine who the heir apparent is, the pre-season can be HUGELY important... Especially the early quarters of pre-season games...

A few examples:

Matt Schaub has looked great playing QB in ATL during the pre-season... Does that mean he has fantasy value? Of course not...

Chris Simms has looked great playing QB in TB during the pre-season... Does that mean he has fantasy value? Of course not... Although, he may have unseated Griese for the backup job...

Now, in New York, Warner was named the starter (I have a feeling that will be short lived), but I submit that if Manning had come out firing 10-12 for 200 yards and 2 TD's in his debut appearances, he would not be riding the pine right now... This is a circumstance when the pre-season mattered a lot, and could have had a big impact....

The opposite holds true in Denver... If Quentin Griffin had come out and been stopped like Travis Minor in those early quarters, we might be talking about Garrison Hearst or Tatum Bell starting against KC in week 1... But, instead he came out running like Barry Sanders, and so because of his pre-season performance, and also because of the injury to Anderson, Griffin's fantasy value has gone through the roof... Combine that with an early injury to, and subsequent anemic performance in his debut by, Tatum Bell, and it is VERY clear who the heir apparent in Denver is...

The same holds true in Tennessee with regards to Chris Brown... The only difference being the fact that Denver has a much more run oriented attack... And a long history of producing stud RB's...

The opposite holds true for Travis Minor... If we had not seen him in any preseason games after Ricky Williams' retirement, he might have some fantasy value right now in a lot of people's eyes, but because of his pre-season play he is waiver wire material...

And then there are guys like Darrius Watts and Ron Dayne that put themselves on the fantasy football map with big pre-season performances that never would have been there otherwise... Neither guy has elevated himself to stud status, but both have earned their way onto preseason benches all over the country...

SO, in answer to your question:

Yes, pre-season performance can have a great impact on fantasy football...
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Postby SuperFly_ffc » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:34 am

I think that preseason is not completely meaningless. Two years ago I watched a Packer game after the Pack signed Fairy Glenn. After watching the game, I observed that Donald Driver was clearly the one guy that stood out from the group of J Walker, Fergusen and Glenn. So I grabbed him as a last round pick and it turned out to be a great sleeper pick-

So in regards to looking at preseason to grab a few sleepers and to evaluate new talent I think that it can definately be a factor. But in regards to judging current rb's like S Davis, Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Mike Vick etc. I wouldn't base preseason to project their performance--- I think that they are used sparingly to save them for the season- No reason to risk injury on these guys.
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Postby Justifiable_Sin » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:45 am

Preseason can be very helpful in certain situations, but of course, a fantasy owner must be careful interpreting the stats...

Fantasy owners should be looking for the same things that the NFL head coaches are looking for....establishing a depth chart for each respective team by determing not just talent, but attitude, health and chemistry of certain key players (some rookies...some not).

If a fantasy owner creates opinion simply based on the overall stats alone...he may become delusioned. A rookie RB that rushes for 34 yards on 7 carries in the first quarter will catch my attention more so than the rookie who has 3 carries for 78 yards late in the fourth quarter.

Generally speaking, the preformances noted in the final preseason game will be more beneficial than those of the first.

The bottom line is this, preseason preformance must be kept in perspective in regard to all the information available...but it can be quite useful in how one prepares for his draft.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Aug 31, 2004 12:08 pm

All these guys are right.

Drsteuss -
The point is things happen in the preseason that give clues. What about injuries - just because they happen in preseason games means it means nothing? You simply cant write it off with blanket statements like the one you are using. All actions create or subtract value - even in a fairly insignificant way. All information affects your views and projections for players.

Its like the strength of schedule argument. Some choose to simply ignore it. Some study schedules and use some for of opinion on their perceived strength of it and use that information as another factor in determining value. If you choose to ignore information, thats fine but the more informed you are the better decisions you can make.
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Postby drsteuss » Tue Aug 31, 2004 12:13 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:All these guys are right.

Drsteuss -
The point is things happen in the preseason that give clues. What about injuries - just because they happen in preseason games means it means nothing? You simply cant write it off with blanket statements like the one you are using. All actions create or subtract value - even in a fairly insignificant way. All information affects your views and projections for players.

Its like the strength of schedule argument. Some choose to simply ignore it. Some study schedules and use some for of opinion on their perceived strength of it and use that information as another factor in determining value. If you choose to ignore information, thats fine but the more informed you are the better decisions you can make.


Fair enough. Consider my mind changed. I think the basic message is that preseason performances CAN be useful, but you should never go overboard. Correct?

And Thomas Jones still blows.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Aug 31, 2004 12:19 pm

drsteuss wrote:And Thomas Jones still blows.


:-b

You will change your mind on him.
Give it time. ;-D
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