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Rookie RBs...

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Rookie RBs...

Postby spamnon » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:41 am

I am fairly new to the fantasy football thing but I am curious about the recent success of rookie RBs in the league?

People are high on guys like:

Kevin Jones
Julius Jones
Stephen Jackson
Tatum Bell
Chris Perry
Mewulde Moore

But how often are rookie RBs successful in their first year? Even with rookie WRs (fitz and roy), some people are expecting big numbers, but in the past 6 years only 2 guys have done that, right? Moss and Boldin. Is there a higher sucess rate for rookie RBs and if so can someone name a few rookie backs from the past couple years that have had great fantasy seasons?

I am even skeptical on 2nd year guys who hardly touched the ball as rookies, like:

Chris Brown
Lee Suggs
Musa Smith
Dominick Davis (only guy I can think of who was good as a rookie)
Onterrio Smith
Quentin Griffin
Willis McGahee
Larry Johnson

I understand all of these guys had excellent college careers but why are so many people so high on these young players to have huge seasons? Maybe I am just naive...
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Postby awwchrist » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:47 am

Well who else is left to draft asides from first round material?

You learn to get a feeling about a certain player, wether it's last season's performance, this year's potential, or what have you...calculate the risk of taking said player in whatever round you are planning to draft him, and then take your shot.

I'm not sure I answered your question. Sometimes it's just a lesser of evils even.
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Postby Superman in Training » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:52 am

I don't have the exact stats right now, and it is too late to go get them, but I know that on the average rookie RBs have a much higher avg of putting up some good fantasy numbers when compared to the rarety of rookie WR that put up good numbers. Usually WRs have a lot more little things to learn to make an impact.. The coverage from college to the pros is really dramatically better.. they have to learn the system and then learn how to shed DBs, block up-field, they have to run more precise routes then when they were in college everyone is way faster then their opponents in college etc. there is just a slower learning curve usually. To put it very basically RBs just run hard and fast and pound the ball for yards..They already now how to read which hole is open and which isn't. WRs need a little more time to develope technique.

As far as exact names of players I am sure someone else here will have those for you.. KG would be good at that one, he is the stat F'in master
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Postby Superman in Training » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:55 am

On a side note, maybe only one of the rookies maybe a few will do good the rest will be forgotten in a couple years. But right now it is hard cause they all do look good. You have to gather your info and go with your gut and pick which one you think is going to be the next big thing! And if you are right you have serious bragging rights!! And that is what fantasy is all about bragging rights and winning the superbowl
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Postby spamnon » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:59 am

awwchrist wrote:Well who else is left to draft asides from first round material?

You learn to get a feeling about a certain player, wether it's last season's performance, this year's potential, or what have you...calculate the risk of taking said player in whatever round you are planning to draft him, and then take your shot.

I'm not sure I answered your question. Sometimes it's just a lesser of evils even.


your points are well taken, but I don't see the point in valuing these rookie backs so high based on potentinal, considering in the past there really haven't been successful rookie backs. I did some more research and I guess we can say the following guys had good rookie seasons:

Portis
Edgerrin
Faulk
Taylor
Dillon

But other top backs like:

Deuce
S Alexander
Priest
Green
R Williams (I know he is retired)
J Lewis

Haven't faired too well in their rookie seasons. There seems to be a good amount who have done well, but I should have recorded what their rookie season was. But I bet if you took a look at the years, there is probably an average of 1.5 good rookie RBs a season. So maybe this year it's Kevin Jones and Stephen Jackson (once faulk can't make it to the 8th game).
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Postby awwchrist » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:36 am

High value for rookie RBs can be generated from owners who particpate in keeper or dynasty leagues. It's far better to take a chance on the fresh blood early than to miss out on the opportunity = inflation.

High value in redraft leagues only comes into play when a RB has a definite hold on a starting RB spot or is likely to take over in the imminent future.

An increased value is given to RBs if they are not susceptible to a RBBC approach to their relative team. This is of course true regardless of them being a rookie, 2, 3 or even 6 year vet.

God I hope this is all concise and not rambling... I'm way too tired to be posting lol
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:06 am

High value in redraft leagues only comes into play when a RB has a definite hold on a starting RB spot or is likely to take over in the imminent future.

An increased value is given to RBs if they are not susceptible to a RBBC approach to their relative team. This is of course true regardless of them being a rookie, 2, 3 or even 6 year vet.



THis is exactly right.

RB is one of those positions that I think that with the talent a rookie can succeed at right away. The other positions rarely produce rookies that are productive right away.
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