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Postby TheRawDAWG » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:33 am

awwchrist wrote:I love CJ as much as the next guy, but you can't dismiss how solid of a fantasy player Ward is to put CJ over him.

CJ who's had 1 good year.

CJ who has a new QB.


Ward has absolutely no knocks on him whatsoever. There's no way I'd pick CJ ahead of Ward...not this season.


I take Palmer ahead of Maddox anyday of the week. This isn't just some schlub coming in to play QB. He was a #1 overall pick. I'm sure he'll have his down times, but I'm also sure Maddox will. I have CJ and Ward pretty much tied.


As for the thread, I'll take Marvin ahead of Holt all day. Bulger is proving to be a mediocre QB and behind that oline, which is a huge problem, he will be even worse this year. He'll be looking for dump offs all game.

Marvin has the best passer in the game throwing him the ball. He runs better routes than everyone. And with the enforcement of the 5 yard rule he'll be running all over the field all day long. Harrison could very well take his spot back at the top this year. I don't think he will but it's possible. He's in a league of his own behind Moss.

Now I think the better quetion is who's #3? TO, Holt, Ward, CJ?
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:56 am

Mad Scott wrote:

If all things were equal coming into this year than I think Holt would be slightly ahead of Harrison because of age and offense


I could understand the age comment but offense? The Colts have one of the best offenses in the league and I don't see anyway you think the Rams will have a better offense than the Colts. Edge is poised for a great year, Faulk is wearing down. You can't tell me you would rather have Bulger over Manning. The o-line for the Rams is in shambles, while the Colts is pretty solid. The TE's are in the Colts favor as well.

The only difference is the WRs, and I would be surprised to see Holt post those kind of TD numbers again. He has gained a lot of yards but the TDs haven't been there over the years. Marvin has been consistent year in and year out. In a contract year, he is looking for a huge year, where I think he will have it.

I am not saying he will catch 142 again or whatever it was, but he is definitely part of the better offense here.
Last edited by SwiperNoSwiping on Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:13 am

So - the argument you guys are using against Holt basically comes down to this: Bulger wont have enough time to throw to him because of the OLine.

Thats fine - if you really think thats the case. Personally, he looked like he had all the time in the world this preseason - I know its only preseason, but that "terrible" Oline still held up against first string Ds enough to see it wasnt going to drastically affect who Bulger went to. As for the defenses that will be rushing, hurrying, and knocking down Bulger so often as the theory suggests, here is their schedule: ARIx2, SFx2, SEAx2, ATL, TB, MIA, NE, BUF, GB, CAR, PHI, NYJ. So, maybe 5-7 tough defensive teams by my book, but nothing to be all that concerned with. Not that many good pass rushers to deal with that would drastically change STL's game plan.

By the way - that game plan? Pass the ball to Holt. Not run Marshall. Not spread the ball around. Not a balanced attack. Pass the ball to Holt. This is a pass heavy offense - nearly 60% of the plays were passes - that led the league last yr. So, they were 2nd in the league in pass attempts per game, yet there's Bruce sitting there with only 69 receptions? Holt had 117. Pass the ball to Holt.

However - please dont use these excuses for knocking Holt:
Bulger is a bad QB.
- he was apparantly a bad QB last yr too, and he didnt get worse, so how did Holt post 1600+ yds?

Holt will get double teamed.
- he was double teamed last yr too - and Bulger still threw to him more than any other QB threw to any other player in the NFL. I think Bulgers INTs represent that. Those INTs didnt hurt Holt though, did they?

I have yet to hear a solid argument why Holt shouldnt be the #2 ranked WR. Once again, last yr was no fluke - it was an obvious changing of the guard in STL. If you fail to see it and pass on Holt you will have no one to blame but yourself.

Ward ahead of Holt? okaaay ;-7
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:40 am

I wouldn't say Ward ahaed of Holt, but I would definitely say Harrison ahead of him. Let's remember last year was the first year Holt was even over 91 catches. Marvin has done that for at least the last 5.

How can you not consider last year a career year for Holt? Most yards, most catches, most tds. 2002 was the same for Harrison, but he has been consistent outside of that. Harrison's tds drop a couple off of his career year. Holt's drop in half.

The only knock I see against Harrison is his age. He is a whopping 4 years older than Holt. Not that much difference to me.

Bulger looked pretty unsettled in his game I saw against KC. He was blitzed by not that great of a defense, made poor decisions, threw into traffic, and just didn't look good. I take your point about them having a weak schedule, but the Chiefs defense has been less than stellar, and they made Bulger look bad.

Just because Harrison had his lowest production in five years, and Holt had his best in five years doesn't mean a changing of the guard. Harrison has been by far the more consistent WR.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:35 pm

But SNS - you are using stats in a blind fashion. Using past stats and a projection to the mean theory excludes any form of fundamental analysis of the situation.

Why did Harrison have a yr like he had in 2002? Its a simple answer. No Edge and no other recieving threat. Peyton had to go to him. Should you expect Harrison to get over 100 receptions again this yr? If you are using past stats and a return to the mean theory, then yes. If you see that a 2nd WR option has developed in IND and realize the ball is being spread around a little more, than no.

Thats the same logic I am using for Holt. Why would I use past statistics and a return to the mean theory when fundamentally things have changed? The change came with Bulger, and the numbers prove it. You can like him or dislike him, think he's good or think he's terrible - it realy doesnt matter. Look at the stats since Bulger became the full-time starter - he has blinders on for one person: Holt.

This isnt about how good STL or IND will be. It isnt about who is more talented. Its simply a matter of fantasy numbers. Holt will get many more chances to perform than Harrison will - both in yds and TDs for one simple reason: he will be thrown to much more than Harrison.
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Postby IRON CHEF » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:03 pm

I think some people are misunderstanding Cornbread's argument.

You could say Holt had a career year, but it was more of a trend shift than anything else. I have my doubts as to how good of a QB Bulger is, but he certainly hasn't gotten any worse and this preseason has shown me he loves Holt. The gap in value between Harrison and Holt is not far by any means, but I think Holt has more than earned a place as the #2 fantasy receiver.
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Postby The Drizzle » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:06 pm

Cornbread, you've hit it right on. Why didn't I blink when Moss and Owens went back to back, and then Harrison went 3 picks later? Because I knew that even in the 12 team league I am in, with the 4th pick overall, I could coast to the playoffs if Holt fell to me on the way back on the second round. Believe me when I say Holt will get it done again this year....this is coming from a guy that rode Marc Bulger every week last year and had the most overall points when all was said and done. Bulger has only gotten better and more comfortable. With NO clear 3rd WR, the passes are going to the back and Holt.
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Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:19 pm

I think that Harrison and Holt are going to put up pretty even numbers this year: However, I'll take Harrison because I know what I'm going to get from him, week in and week out. In H2H, this is the key. A good route runner with a great QB like Manning will get his points each week. A guy like Holt will be very inconsistent, some great weeks and some terrible.

SO if you like your #1 RB, grab Harrison in the 2nd.
If you don't like your #1 RB, take Holt.

Just make sure to develop a good team around Marvin.
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:46 pm

Cornbread I can see your point, but the difference is not Bulger. It's Faulk. In games when Faulk was hurt, Holt had 45 catches for 735, and 7 tds. In games where Faulk was healthy he had 72 catches for only 961 yds and 5 tds. He put up much higher numbers when Holt was the only option. With a healthy Faulk he won't put up nearly 1700 yds receiving again. Faulk cuts into that too much. If Faulk gets hurt, and I believe that he will, then Holt may get all those looks again. Remains to be seen.

I find it rather funny, that with Holt's career year last year it's a 'trend shift', and with Harrison it's just the way it is. That is pretty funny. Let's not forget Moss had by far his best year last year too. The two years before that people were awfully down on him when he was only scoring 7 or 10 tds and putting up 1200 or so yards. Now he is again atop the list at WRs.

Marvin has one year less than 1400 yds, so he is no longer worthy of being considered the #2 WR. Please. If he had any one of his seasons that he had the other 4 years, people wouldn't even be questioning this. Or if Holt didn't have his incredible year last year. Three years in a row before Holt owners were all crying since he couldn't get into the endzone.

Just because Harrison has one year that he doesn't catch over 100 balls people are so fast to write him off as one of the games best.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:50 pm

im sorry if Im perpetuating this argument, but you cant say Marv is more consistant either.

Last yr:

MH had 6 games with over 100 yds, but he also had 7 with 60 or fewer yds.
MH caught TD passes in only 6 games - and 3 of those games made up 7 of his 10 TDs. Thats not the definition of consistancy.

TH on the other hand had 10 games with over 100 yds, but only 3 where he was shut down with 60 or less. He also caught TD passes in 10 games.
It would be deiceivng however if I didnt also note Holt had 3 games where he was held to 61-70 yds. I think the point still remains however:

From last yr, Holt was more reliable than Harrison.
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