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Kickers are worth something!!!!!!!!!!

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Postby Arlo » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:52 pm

Andy1234 wrote:
Arlo wrote:That last post, by the way, was aww-speak for:
Arlo, what's aww-speak?

That's for clearing up my overly worded post.

Oops, meant aww's post above yours. ;-)

Sorry about that - hit the reply button before seeing your response, which already covered all the bases I tried to.
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Postby Arlo » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:01 pm

Reills wrote:may be diggin' myself a deeper hole here, but it'll be the last time i'll speak in here, and i'm sure that later on for aww's sake i'll "be lil more open", but the difference between the 1st K and the 3rd was 3pts/week, which makes a difference. whereas the top 3RB's, well the difference was 2.5pts between #1 and #3, but anyway, not hat big of deal!

Well, that changes things, of course. If your scoring system goes against the grain and creates greater differences between kickers than other positions, you clearly have to factor that into your draft strategy.

The key questions then become:

How reliable are kicker projections compared with other positions? Will that gap exist again?

and

How soon should you grab a kicker? Can you wait, assuming other owners will be drafting Ks late?

Interesting ... what's your league's exact scoring?
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Postby Andy1234 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:06 pm

In your league you start 1 Kicker and 6 starters at the skill positions (RB,WR,TE).

So for a ten team league, there will be 10 starting K and 60 starting at the Skill positions.

So would you rather end up with the 10th best Kicker or the 60th skill position player as a starter for your team?


In a league that starts 1 RB, 1WR, 1 TE, 1 QB, and 1 K: drafting a kicker early makes more sense because the drop off at the other positions isn't as steep.

This also works as the league gets smaller (because it also lowers the drop off difference)


OK, I'm done. You are right Kickers matter, but they don't need to be drafted high in order to matter.
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Postby Reills » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:09 pm

well, here's the pts breakdown, as you can see, a K can have 2FG's, and 3xpts, 1touchback and do almost as well as a guy that had 60yds and a TD, but either way, stuck in my own fantasy world, guess i don't really think about others scoring, then again, i'm out to win mine!!!!!!!hah

Points
TD
6
2 point conversion (rushing, receiving or passing)
2
PAT (kicking)
1
Touchback (kicking)
1
Safety
5
Field Goal
3
Field Goal (50+ yards)
1
Every 15 yards Rushing
1
Every 15 yards Receiving
1
Every 30 yards Passing
1
Every 50 Return Yards*
1
Fumble (only if lost to other team)
-3
Interception (thrown)
-3
Interception (caught)
4
Fumble Recovery (change of possession)
4
Sack
4
Solo Tackles
1
Forced Fumble
3
Blocked Kick (punt, field goal or PAT)
5
Pass Defended**
1
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RB:F.Taylor,Barber,Goings, Duckett, J.Jones, Betts
WR:Mason,D. Jackson, Lelie, Evans
K-Tynes
TE-Wiggy
D:Reed, P.Kerney, Azumah
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Postby Reills » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:11 pm

YEAH, I GOT ANDY1234 TO SAY THAT "THEY MATTER", I DID IN FACT NEVER MENTION DRAFTING THEM HIGH, WE DO 20 ROUNDS, I THINK THE EARLIEST I'VE SEEN IS 6TH, BECAUSE THEY HAD A STUD AT ALL OTHER POS. ANYWAY, DONE HERE
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QB:Vick,Big Ben, Brees, Ramsey
RB:F.Taylor,Barber,Goings, Duckett, J.Jones, Betts
WR:Mason,D. Jackson, Lelie, Evans
K-Tynes
TE-Wiggy
D:Reed, P.Kerney, Azumah
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Postby klgreen1973 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:05 pm

In my league you get 4 points for a kick made between 40-49 yds and 5 points for anything made over 50 yards. I had Vanderjagt last year and he helped me win many a game last year...I do agrre that if I can't get Wilkins or Vanderjagt, I will wait until one of the last rounds though. It is the same with defenses...if I can't have BAL, NE, CAR or DAL...I will wait!!!
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Postby tharris » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:16 pm

The problem with kickers is that it is nearly impossible to project stats for them, so there's just as good of chance that the 10th kicker taken will be better than the 1st kicker taken.
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Postby Free Bagel » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:29 pm

^^Yep, it's a combination of things really.

The first point, is, as has been mentioned, the positional scarcity just isn't there, kind of like the whole reasoning behind QB's going later than RB's.

The other is the general year-to-year inconsistency behind kickers makes them impossible to predict.

I've repeated these stats dozens of times on these boards, but I'll do it again for you.

Last year's top 2 kickers (vandy and Wilkins) ranked 17th and 26th respectively among kickers in 2002.

In the last 5 years, only 2 or 3 kickers (can't remember which looked up these stats a few months ago) have consecutive top 5 seasons.

That means 2 or 3 out of 25 possible. And the majority of those kickers fell all the way out of the top 15, and in more than 50% of the cases, a top 5 kicker fell out of the top 20 the next year.
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Postby GMoney » Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:32 pm

bagel your a tease....

who are those 2/3 guys who have consistent top 5 years???

Id say... Longwell could be 1? Maybe, Automatica (before last year)
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Postby Vanter » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:22 pm

GMoney wrote:bagel your a tease....

who are those 2/3 guys who have consistent top 5 years???

Id say... Longwell could be 1? Maybe, Automatica (before last year)


Don't forget about Elam. He's been consistent since 1997 except for 2000 where his #s dipped to 103.
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