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Using Vegas Lines And Over/Unders in Determining Line-Ups

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Using Vegas Lines And Over/Unders in Determining Line-Ups

Postby K-One » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:00 pm

I posted this type of topic last season, and it got a very positive feedback. I am a former NFL gambler...finishing on the plus side after a few years, but I since have left the hobby. I like to use Vegas lines and over/unders in determining certain match-ups. For instance if an over/under is set anywhere over the 46pt. mark, you should expect ALOT of scoring, and hence ALOT of Fantasy points to be had. If the over/under is very low around 35 or so, expect a low fantasy point output. Also, if a point spread looks very "strange" or "fishy", you should expect an odd outcome, with possibly the team you "think" should dominate (both in reality and in fantasy points) to lose and have a bad game, and hence, bad fantasy production. I just wanted to get some feedback on this concept.

High Over/Unders for Week 1:

Denver v. Kansas City --- 48

New Orleans v. Seattle --- 45.5 (And this one should go up by game time)

Indy vs. New England --- 45.5

Low Over/Unders:

Jacksonville v. Buffalo --- 35

Sketchy Lines??? :

Miami opened at -2 with no RB, a sketchy QB, and a new WR. The line quickly moved in favor of Tennesse at -2. Expect Miami's D to maybe dominate this one.

Eagles -9...I predicted this line a few weeks back to be at 7.5. 9 is awful high for this NFC east rivalry game. Expect ZILCH from Warner and the Giants Offense this week. Eagles rollllll in all phases.
QB (1) - Plummer, Leftwich
RB (2) - Alexander, Dunn, Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Stephen Davis
WR (3) - Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Drew Bennett, Rod Smith, Jason Witten
K - Peterson
D - Carolina
(10 team league, pick #4)
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Postby Wesley Walker » Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:46 pm

I remember your discussion of this least season and I think it's a valid means of analysis. During the second half of last year, Buckychudd and I took this a step further. We looked at the over/under and point spread for each game to find how many points Vegas was predicting each team would score. We then looked at what % of a team's scoring was coming from each skill position player. For example, maybe Peyton Manning was involved in 41% of hi team's total points. If Vegas had Indy as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 44, then they're saying the Colts will score 23.5 points. This means Peyton should score 9.4 points.

These are not fantasy points, mind you, and fantasy yardage is in no way ccounted for here (though a ratio of a team's typical ground yards scored per points scored, or something, could be figured out). Further, statistical analysis of our predictions didn't show them to be all that accurate. Though such analysis wouldn't show any predictors to be very accurate -- in NFL football there are many, many variables.

Still, I think this form of analysis is well-worth the effort.
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Postby K-One » Sun Sep 05, 2004 1:50 pm

BUMP...Anyone have any thoughts?
QB (1) - Plummer, Leftwich
RB (2) - Alexander, Dunn, Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Stephen Davis
WR (3) - Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Drew Bennett, Rod Smith, Jason Witten
K - Peterson
D - Carolina
(10 team league, pick #4)
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