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Postby Mookie4ever » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:17 pm

http://www.Bowmans.com

They may have a crappy and hard to navigate website but they have good lines and I am comfortable with them.
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Postby moochman » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:41 pm

That the Lions game would qualify as the lock of the week shows just how unpredictable the NFL early season action is. True DaBears blow and are trying out new offensive and defensive systems. But they are at home. And they are playing a team that hasn't won a road game in 3 years. And a team that has a new D coordinator and is paper thin at linebacker, and D line, offers no pass push, and is vulnerable to the outside runs and screens. And a team that will rely on a rookie RB and #2WR, a #1 WR with a handful of game experience, and a QB that is unproven.
While I hope that the Lions will exercise their demons and win their first road game, I would not call it a lock even if they were playing Sister Mary's beauty college.
So a word of warning is issued by a lifelong Lions fan who has been baffled by the great play or incredible ineptitude that this team can show on any given Sunday. Good luck, Gentlemen.
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Postby Dub-Dub » Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:02 am

C'mon what about the Titans over Miami?
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:10 am

Anybody else have any week one locks?

So far we have:

Mookie Detroit +2 1/2 (now +3)
CC Baltimore -3
GLG Baltimore -3
BGB Detroit +3
Dub-Dub Tenn -1 1/2
nsulham Baltimore -3
joester KC +3
Tman570 Baltimore -3
Lush under 38.5 Det/Chi
Franchise Fan Zona +11
Tyr Zona +11

Nobody seems to get the ONE pick lol. Whenever somebody has picked more than one I have selected the one that they are most confident in - or the one that they listed first.
Last edited by Mookie4ever_ffc on Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:45 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Postby nsulham » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:02 pm

I personally like:

Baltimore -3 at Cleveland
Tennessee -3 at Miami

Just out of curiosity, when do you guys place your wagers? Friday? Saturday? Earlier?

Seems like the earlier you place the better odds you'll get but then you have to worry about injuries, etc.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:53 pm

nsulham wrote:Just out of curiosity, when do you guys place your wagers? Friday? Saturday? Earlier?

Seems like the earlier you place the better odds you'll get but then you have to worry about injuries, etc.


The odds will change during the week. Whether the odds get better as the week goes on depends on what side you are picking.

example:

The SD vs. GB game opens up on Tuesday with GB as a +6 favourite.
A lot of money gets placed on the Pack.
In order to even out the betting, on Friday the oddmakers move the line to make GB a +7 favourite to encourage people to bet on SD.
Have the odds gotten better? yes if you want to bet on SD but no if you want to bet on GB.

If there is a lot of money being laid on one side, this is called a "hot game". If the line moves a lot you should probably take the team that is benefitting from the movement. This is because the line is first set by professional handicappers who know their stuff. If they say GB by 6 it will usually be pretty close to that number (these guys are amazingly accurate). The movement later on in the week (provided there are no personnel changes) is only in response to public betting and not what the professional handicappers think the result will be.

Sometimes, if they have already moved the line as much as the books think that they can safely move them, they will offer reduced juice instead of further line movement. This is good too :-) .

To make a long story short (I know...too late) make your picks whenever you feel comfortable. But if at the end of the week there are some specials offered on hot games (either by line movement or reduced juice) go for it if you think that it is a good pick.

clear as mud, right?
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Postby joester » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:44 pm

KC +3 @ Denver

That should be everyones lock of the week. It would be my lock if KC was losing 3 points. No chance the Chiefs lose this game.
Last edited by joester on Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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4 STAR RELEASE

Postby tman570 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:57 pm

Ok I have only one great release and it is a 4 star pick. (on my personal scale of 1 to 4)

Baltimore-3

I think the line in this one should be closer to 6 1/2 or 7

I also have two 1 star plays but I doubt I will bet on them.

Arizona +10.5 and KC +3
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:02 am

I'm updating people's locks on page one of this thread - joester and Tman, your picks have been added.
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Postby joester » Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:58 pm

Hey Mook, I botched the 1st post. KC is actually getting 3 against Denver. I corrected it.
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