The Giants by 9.5 isn't too bad, but I wouldn't consider it a lock unless it moves up to 10. There are far too many variables on betting for NYG to make it anything but a risky bet. Kurt Warner is strong against Philly, and he does have something to prove if he wants to keep his job.. but if TO and Westbrook light up, this bet is over. I'd consider it a high risk bet.
I bet on Arizona+11 myself. Their offense is much higher powered than it was last year, and I think they should be able to keep within 9-10 points. I'd consider this a moderate risk. A lot of variables on the Cards this year, but I think they might put up a solid show in this game, and the spread is just too big to miss.
My personal locks -
Balti -3 (JLew will tear through Cleveland's pathetic Rush D, and Balti's D will undeniably create problems for Garcia and the slightly ugpraded Brownie O)
San Diego -3 (Remember Houston's Rushing D? Last year they were averaging 150ish yards against them per game. Ouch. LT2 will destroy their line. Risky to most, but a lock in my eyes. LT can make this happen.)
Vikes -4.5 (Five words. Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. Need I go on? I have the Vikes pegged at a 6-7 point lead, even with the relatively tough Dallas D. If CPep doesn't manage to get Moss into the endzone, there's no doubt he'll be able to move the chains to field goal range much more efficiently than the geriatric cowboys.)