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Guru Report - Pre Draft Edition

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Guru Report - Pre Draft Edition

Postby Nero » Sun Apr 06, 2003 12:57 pm

Originally Published, March 31, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------

Editor's Note: Welcome to our 9th annul Pre-Draft Rookie Report. This is
the second year we have enlisted draft expert Tony Pauline to provide his
analysis of this year's top rookies. Tony isn't your average college
football fan who just watches games on TV. Scouting rookies is his
business - he attends numerous games in person, watches others on tape,
and attends both the Senior Bowl and combine. In addition to his vast
knowledge, we want Tony on our side because he's not afraid to cut across
the grain and say things that differ from the consensus. For example, he
wasn't afraid to predict that William Green - the top back taken in the
draft last year - would be slow off the mark in 2003. You may notice some
notable omissions or surprise additions to this year's list.

As we did last year, we asked Tony to rank his top-15 players entering the
NFL this year at QB, RB, WR, or TE. Since it's almost impossible to
predict the players' fantasy worth before their teams are known, we took
his rankings and then broke them down by position to simply serve as a
pre-draft primer. We also added a few players who didn't make Tony's
top-15 list but should be the next best bets. After the draft, there will
likely be changes (and numerous additions) to these rankings, and we'll be
back to re-rank all of this year's rookies by position and overall. In the
Premiere Issue of FantasyGuru.com Magazine, on newsstands in early July,
Tony will be back to take a long look at this year's rookie class from
both a short and long term perspective.

2003 Pre-Draft Rookie Report
------------------------

The biggest off-season event in sports is just around the corner as the
annual NFL Draft takes place the weekend of April 26th and 27th in New
York. Franchises have an opportunity to improve their teams and fill in
the final pieces, while fantasy owners also have the chance to pick up a
few skill players who could produce points for their roster this fall.
Here's a "heads-up" on the players to track next month.

Quarterbacks
-------------------

1. Carson Palmer (USC) - Palmer had a rocky career at USC but pulled it
all together during his final season or "contract year." A tall
passer with the athletic skills to make plays in the pocket or on the
move, Palmer is a big-armed thrower with top accuracy down the field
or in the short game. His spirals are picture perfect as was his
decision making last season. If placed in a situation with the right
coach, one who will do a lot of hand holding early on, look for Palmer
to have a better rookie campaign than last year's initial selection,
David Carr.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: With new Bengal head coach Marvin Lewis
revamping the defense this off-season and the team committed to QB Jon
Kitna for at least the short term, Palmer would make a lot of sense for
the future of the Bengals. He could sit behind Kitna this year and
possibly challenge him or take over the starting job in 2004. He's no lock
to go to the Bengals, though. Palmer, whose draft status soared after an
impressive 2002 season, isn't a slam-dunk future star, in my opinion, but
he's on the fringe of being considered as such, and I can't argue with
ranking him over Leftwich, due to the former Marshall QB's injury
problems. Palmer is a prototypical pocket passer, so he probably won't be
much of a threat on the ground in the NFL (he can move around fairly well,
though). Clearly, Palmer's fantasy value this coming year will be very
minimal, and he probably won't play unless there's an injury to his team's
starter. Long-term, though, he should definitely be considered as a viable
keeper in leagues that carry players over from year-to-year. I do feel
he'll take a few years to develop, and I don't think he'll be as good a
pro as 2002 draftees Joey Harrington and David Carr, so those who draft
him will have to not only be patient but also keep their expectations
tempered.

2. Byron Leftwich (Marshall) - The darling of every draft prognosticator
last September, Leftwich was anointed by everyone as a shoo-in to be
the first pick of the 2003 draft...but a funny thing happened on the
way to New York and the 2003 draft. What was originally classified as
a "shin injury" in fact turned into a broken leg and later
blossomed
into a reoccurrence of a previous problem for Leftwich. Anyway you cut
it, the inability to throw at major pre-draft events like the Senior
Bowl or combine has adversely affected Leftwich. A pure pocket passer
with a huge arm, Leftwich will need time not only to heal his leg but
even more so to improve his passing fundamentals. I don't expect major
contributions from him as a rookie.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Unless he goes to a team that may need a
starting QB this year - and I stress the word "may" because it doesn't
look like any team really needs a starter this year - Leftwich will have
very little fantasy value in 2003. Of course, an injury to a starter can
change that, but Leftwich is strictly a long-term keeper league prospect
as of right now. However, he's a damn good one, and one I would rank ahead
of Palmer for the long-term, unless his leg is still an issue this summer.
Leftwich isn't a tremendously athletic player, and his running skills
aren't anything special, so he will need to go to an offense, perhaps one
like Buffalo's, that stresses the vertical passing game and doesn't need
its QB to make plays with his legs. In the right system, with some
polishing, as mentioned above, Leftwich, an intelligent leader with a good
attitude as well as a strong and accurate arm, should be a prolific passer
in the NFL.

3. Kyle Boller (California) - Boller literally went to the mountaintop in
2002. Previously considered a draft afterthought entering his senior
season, great coaching enabled Boller to meld his tremendous physical
abilities into quarterbacking skills. Displaying much greater pocket
patience and decision making, the big-armed fire thrower is moving
toward the top ten. Even with that, Boller is far from the finished
product and remember this: The same coach who helped transform Boller
this season did the same for Akili Smith at Oregon and Trent Dilfer at
Fresno State prior to both of those quarterbacks entering the draft.
If he plays much during he rookie campaign, don't expect a whole lot
from Boller.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Again, here's a guy who's nothing but a
long-term prospect. He's an intriguing one, and I think he could be an
Aaron Brooks type, in the sense that he could wind up being a franchise
QB, yet he probably won't be drafted as such. He's got a long way to go,
though, and he needs to get lucky and get in a good situation, so he'll
probably be a reach in keeper leagues that keep 5-7 players. In larger
dynasty leagues, he deserves a look, but wait until his 2003 team is known
before snapping him up.

4. Rex Grossman (Florida) - You know the adage, "You should've traded him
last year"? Well, in Grossman's case, it could read, "You should've
entered the draft last year." While he won't pass the eyeball test,
the Gator junior is a talented thrower with incomparable downfield
accuracy some liken to Kurt Warner during his better days. Grossman
was a great combination of brains and physical skill, which helped him
run Steve Sprurrier's offense with precision as a freshman and
sophomore. Hitting a small bump in the road last year in Florida's no
-huddle scheme, Grossman's draft stock has slipped somewhat, and as a
result he is moving toward the end of round one. He's a Chad
Pennington type, in the sense that he'll be selected by a team that
does not need immediate help at quarterback but is a thrower who has
great potential for the future.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: For quite some time now, the talk has been that
Grossman would be a good heir-apparent to QB Brett Favre in Green Bay. If
that's the case, he would have some long-term potential, but it could take
him at least until 2005 before he's starting. Another possibility would be
Pittsburgh, which could use a young prospect at the position to develop
behind Tommy Maddox, to whom Grossman has been compared. Grossman will
help an NFL team in the future, but it's a stretch to assume now that
he'll offer much help to a fantasy team down the road.

5. Dave Ragone (Louisville) - Much like Grossman, Louisville lefty Dave
Ragone struggled through a tough campaign in 2002 as, quite frankly,
it was an absolutely miserable senior season. But when you peel back
the layers and see Ragone's three top receivers were unavailable to
him last season (two graduated and one suffered a gruesome injury),
while half his offensive line used up all their eligibility, one can
realizes why. Once considered a potential top-ten choice, Ragone is
sliding through the first round and struggling to remain a top-32
selection. This may not be a bad thing because Ragone could end up
with a good team late in the initial frame (Pittsburgh?) and after
sitting a while, will be a productive starter in the future. But like
Grossman, not much fantasy value next season.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: You certainly don't want to bank on an NFL QB
who struggled in college - even if it wasn't entirely his fault. But the
lefty Ragone has a lot of upside - he may be the best (rookie) athlete at
the QB position this year - so he's someone to keep an eye on. He had a
very solid performance at the combine. If given a chance to start in a
couple of years, and if he works on his field vision and some mechanical
issues, he could be a very effective NFL QB. He has a ways to go, though,
so he's a reach in a keeper league until further notice.

Running Backs
---------------------

1. Larry Johnson (Penn State) - After breaking several NCAA and Penn
State rushing records on several occasions during the 2002 campaign,
Larry Johnson caught many by surprise...or did he? A ball carrier who
flashed skill previous to his senior campaign, Johnson pulled all the
pieces together last fall and proved himself to be a complete runner
who combines vision, patience, and power, with a little speed
sprinkled in. The knocks on him have been heard loud and clear; his
worst games last season came against the Nittany Lions staunchest
competition, and woeful are the recent ball carriers to come from the
PSU program. We'd say hang on just a minute; Johnson is deceptive in
every aspect of his game and, as a potential late first round pick,
will produce right out of the gate as a rookie.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Last year's rookie RB crop was considered
average, and this year's is even worse. Even if Johnson is the first back
selected, he might not even start this year because there simply aren't
many teams looking for a featured back right now. That could change,
though. If Houston doesn't sign free agent Stacey Mack, or if Pittsburgh
releases Jerome Bettis, or if New England cuts Antowain Smith, there could
be a place for Johnson to start as a rookie. Chicago, Detroit, and Tampa
Bay will also be looking to select a back fairly early in the draft,
although probably not in the first round. Other than the fact that he kind
of came out of nowhere to produce big numbers, came up small in big games,
and comes from Penn State, a school that has produced several RB busts,
the knock on Johnson is his upright running style. But he's had no major
injuries in the past, and he definitely has the attributes that could make
him a poor man's Eddie George (Note: He ran a 4.4 40-yard dash, which was
encouraging). Fantasy owners shouldn't jump all over him, but if he lands
in the right spot, he should remain atop our rookie RB rankings at least
until the summer, and he should be a solid, but certainly not spectacular,
keeper league prospect.

2. Musa Smith (Georgia) - Possibly the most complete back in this draft,
UGA's Musa Smith is a package of speed, explosion, and power. He'll
run over defenders on the inside, beat them to the flanks on the
outside, or leave them gasping for air in the open field. His hands
are natural, and Smith is a fluid athlete who can be a one-man show
who takes over the game. So why is he not an early first round
choice? One word; injuries. Up until the 2002 season, much of Smith's
career in Athens was spent on the sidelines nursing wounds rather than
taking hand-offs from the quarterback. He'll be downgraded accordingly
but a team that takes a chance on him could hit a home run. Factor in
Smith's being selected late in round one (by a good team) and it could
all add up to a very productive 2003 campaign.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Like DeShaun Foster last year, Smith is a
high-upside back, but also a high-downside one because of his durability
issues. Unlike Johnson, Smith's school has a rich history of producing NFL
backs, including notables such as Hershel Walker, Garrison Hearst, Terrell
Davis, and even Olandis Gary. Smith did stay healthy last year, and his
stock has been slowly rising, so if he is in fact taken late in the first
round by a good team, or even in the second, he could be a nice sleeper
entering the 2003 season. He looks to me like a good fit for the
Buccaneers, but it remains to be seen if Tampa will take a back early this
year. Between his durability issues and the fact that he'll have to get
lucky by getting drafted by the right team, fantasy owners need to take a
wait-and-see approach with him.

3. Onterio Smith (Oregon) - A skilled ball handler with Marshall Faulk
-type abilities, Smith is a triple threat player who beats opponents
carrying the ball, catching it, or running back kicks. Combining
instinct, explosion, and the speed to run away from defenders, Smith
displays franchise-type abilities and takes over games. The residing
problems are a penchant for getting injured and a propensity to get in
trouble off the field. Dismissed from the Tennessee program, Smith
left Oregon a year early after it looked like academics would force
his hand. He is a boom-or-bust type player; should he keep his nose
out of trouble and his body in one piece, Smith will run roughshod
over opponents. Otherwise, he'll just tease many at the next level.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Smith looks like the perfect back for the
Chiefs, currently without a viable backup RB, to take as protection for
and to play behind Priest Holmes. You see the Faulk comparison above. But
after his horrible experience with Lawrence Phillips, Chief coach Dick
Vermeil may be hesitant to take a player whose off-field activities are
worrisome. Smith shares many attributes with Bronco RB Clinton Portis; he
lacks size but plays bigger than he is, has great outside speed, and runs
low to the ground. He'll almost certainly enter the 2003 season as a
backup, so you should be able to get him fairly cheep in a keeper league,
making him a real nice gamble. In non-keeper leagues, it's too early to
say if he'll have value this year. But he definitely has great potential.

Hansen's Best of the Rest:

- Lee Suggs, Virginia Tech - Suggs lacks good size, but he's still a good
inside runner, and he can be explosive. There are some concerns with
him, most notably injuries. He had reconstructive knee surgery in 2001
and wasn't as explosive after that in 2002. He's viewed by many as the
second best back in the draft, so he should go early.

- Justin Fargas, USC - Fargas' stock soared after his impressive combine,
but he's another back who brings with him some durability concerns.
He's also considered raw, and there are questions as to whether or not
he can be a featured back in the NFL. But with an excellent combination
of size, power, and speed, he certainly has the tools to excel at the
next level.

- Willis McGahee, Miami - The consensus top back likely to enter the
draft before the Fiesta Bowl this past January, McGahee's stock
plummeted after tearing both his ACL and MCL in that National
Championship game. Before his injury, he was a dominant player who
showed every sign of being a rock solid pro. He has very good size and
power, but before the injury also had better speed than most backs in
this draft class. He is not only a risk because of his injury, but
there are also concerns with a team's ability to sign him (after likely
taking him in the 2nd or 3rd round). With his being a relatively high
draft pick, but a player who may not play this year, some teams will be
hesitant to pay him too much, and it's possible that if he's unhappy
with his contract that he'll refuse to sign and simply enter the draft
next year with his status likely much higher. If he does sign with his
new club and his rehab continues to go well this spring and summer,
he'll certainly be worth a roll of the dice for those in keeper
leagues. As for this year, if he made an impact, it would have to be
considered a miraculous achievement.

- Chris Brown, Colorado - A big strong back, but the negatives do
outweigh his positives. Brown's upright running style makes him an
injury risk, and he doesn't have good speed. He's had little experience
as a receiver and had some fumbling problems in college.

Wide Receivers
---------------------

1. Charles Rogers (Michigan St) - A game-controlling receiver with the
speed to break open a close contest coupled with the return skills to
immediately turn the tide of a game...that is probably the best way to
describe Rogers, the first receiver to be drafted this April. A
complete wideout who needs to file down the rough edges of his game,
Rogers will immediately be productive right out of the gate. About the
only thing that could deny the Michigan State skill player from
breaking into a starting lineup next September would be a prolonged
holdout over the summer. Regardless, Rogers is a keeper for both the
long and short term.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Although he isn't quite as big and tall and
previously thought (he's 6-2, not 6-4), Rogers is still clearly the cream
of this year's WRs crop and is ready to excel from day one in the NFL. The
Lions appear to be a lock to select him with the #2 pick, and he will
likely step right in and start. He's by far the best rookie WR prospect
this year and should also definitely be the best receiver in this class
for the long term in keeper leagues. He'll be expected to be Steve
Maruichi's new Terrell Owens.

2. Taylor Jacobs (Florida) - Six years running, and productive Florida
Gator receivers have yet to live up to the lofty expectations placed
on them in the NFL. Can Taylor Jacobs break that trend? We think yes.
Of all the pass catchers to come from that fine program recently,
Jacobs is the most natural and a receiver with a tremendous feel for
the game and position. His hands, route running, and reliability are
top notch, as is his sprinter's speed. Not known as a speed merchant
on the football field, Jacobs runs fast for the stopwatch, but he has
yet to transfer that skill onto the football field. Still, a late pick
in round one, there is a good chance Jacobs lands on an established
squad and then quickly breaks into a starting lineup as a rookie.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: While Rogers appears to be a can't-miss
prospect even as a rookie, players of his skill level are rare, so the
point about how Jacobs could be drafted late in the first by a quality NFL
team is a key for him. He's used to competing with NFL-caliber receivers,
as he did his freshman year against Darrell Jackson, Reche Caldwell, and
Jabar Gaffney. Even as the #4 or #3 receiver at Florida, he made an
impact. Last year, with those three gone, he came into his own and was the
team's go-to guy. It should also be pointed out that he's a very
experienced receiver, having played all four years at Florida. He's one of
the best rookie receivers entering the draft, and if the right team drafts
him, he should be one of the best rookie receivers in fantasy this year.

3. Andre Johnson (Miami, FL) - Johnson is a player on the rise as we move
toward the draft. So much so that many have confided they feel his
Pro-Day workout in March was better than his number one rival, the
aforementioned Charles Rogers. Johnson is big, strong, and a natural,
smart receiver who's worked well with Ken Dorsey two years running.
Not only a pass catcher who controls the game, Johnson also displays a
penchant for breaking it deep on occasion. Johnson's a real good
player and offers an abundant amount of upside potential. It looks as
though he's headed to the desert and the Cardinals, which means his
production levels will be a little depressed next season, through no
fault of his own.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: If he doesn't go to the Cardinals, he could go
to Jacksonville, who with their key needs on defense already addressed
this off-season, may opt to address a glaring need: a speedy receiver to
play opposite Jimmy Smith. That would be an excellent situation for
Johnson this year and a solid one for future years. Depending upon where
he goes, Johnson has an excellent chance to be the second-best long-term
fantasy prospect at WR in this year's rookie class (behind Rogers). He'll
be a good keeper league choice regardless of where he goes in the draft.

4. Kevin Curtis (Utah St) - Right now you're scratching your heads.
Possibly the best pass catcher you've never seen play, Curtis may be
the most complete receiver in this draft if one was to factor in
football intelligence, pass-catching hands, and route-running
abilities. A receiver who always found the open spot in the defense,
Curtis is as reliable as the sun rising from the east and performed
well in front of scouts at both the Senior Bowl and combine. He's
starting to show an element of speed to his game and recent clockings
of 4.30 during individual workouts have scouts shaking their heads. It
looks like Curtis could be drafted in the middle of round two as the
St. Louis Rams and Kansas Chiefs are taking long looks at the Utah
State product. Baring injury, Curtis will be one of the best rookie
receivers in 2002.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Here's a good example of how Tony isn't afraid
to make a bold prediction. Not even ranked in the top-10 at the position
by most draft experts, Curtis was very productive at Utah State. If he's
drafted by the right team and placed in the right situation, he'll be
someone to watch. It's just too early to know what his fantasy value will
be until his NFL destination is known.

5. Brandon Lloyd (Illinois) - Next to Taylor Jacobs, Lloyd is one of the
most natural pass catchers in this draft. Tall with terrific hands, he
always seems to get open and has a penchant for sneaking it down
field. Lloyd is also a talented red zone target, pulling in those
critical points for fantasy players. A team early in round two will
grab his services, and Lloyd would be productive as a rookie for a
franchise like the Jaguars or Vikings.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Lloyd looks like he should be a quality #2 WR
for an NFL club, so his fantasy potential may be a tad limited. However,
if he goes to a team like the Vikings, he could be as productive from the
#2 spot there as he would in the #1 spot on several other teams. Let's see
where he goes and what his role is.

6. Bryant Johnson (Penn State) - After years of inconsistency for the
Nittany Lions, Byrant Johnson finally pulled the pieces together as a
senior and melded his outstanding physical skills into football
abilities. Big and fast, Johnson did not have the heartbreaking
dropped passes, which were his trademark prior to 2002, but rather he
did a fine job becoming the Lions' go-to guy. Not yet a finished
product, Johnson still needs work, but he could end up in the late
part of round one going to a team (Eagles?) looking for the finishing
piece. This will give him several opportunities to perform as a rookie.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: When you consider that Donte Stallworth was the
only rookie wideout to make a substantial impact last year, we're already
digging deep when it comes to fantasy here at #6. There are plenty of
rookie WR prospects who could become good NFL receivers, and Johnson is
definitely one of them. But again, Tony is speculating that quality teams
might draft guys like Curtis, Lloyd, and Johnson, which definitely helps
the fantasy potential for the short-term. After all, it's much better to
be the #3 WR on the Rams than the #2 guy on, say, the Texans.

Hansen's Best of the Rest:

- Kelley Washington (Tennessee) - With some good off-season workouts,
Washington's stock has been on a rise lately. Washington is definitely
a boom-or-bust player. He's a huge target who will present matchup
problems with his size and speed; plus, his hands are good. But there
are concerns with him. He's not very experienced, has had durability
problems, and doesn't appear to have the greatest attitude.

- Anquan Boldin (Florida State) - Boldin is a big and physical receiver
with good speed, so his fantasy potential is obvious. But he's raw -
he's a converted QB - and his workouts haven't been very impressive.
He'd be a good player for a team to use in the slot as its #3 WR.

Tight Ends
-------------------

1. Jason Witten (Tennessee) - A junior from Volunteerland, Witten could
be the most complete tight end to enter the draft in a long time. A
reliable pass catcher over the middle, Witten also sneaks it downfield
on occasion and makes the long reception. Factor in the ability to
dominate as a blocker, and you're looking at a late first round
choice. Don't expect Witten to put up Jeremy Shockey-type numbers but
rather to have a productive rookie campaign.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: He's no Shockey, as stated above, but his
impressive overall package could prompt a team to take him in the middle
or late in the first round. A team like the Eagles is a possibility if he
falls in the first round. Shockey was the exception to the norm, so even
though Witten is a great prospect, he'll be a reach this year unless he
lands on a team that will start him from day one and also use him often.
Otherwise, he's a good guy to target in dynasty leagues and in larger
keeper leagues.

2. Dallas Clark (Iowa) - Of all the receiving tight ends available in
this draft, Clark is the best. A former walk-on linebacker, Clark has
been Iowa's most reliable pair of hands two years running. A skilled
athlete, he does a terrific job finding the open spot in the defense
or working his way back to the quarterback and making himself an
available target. It will all add up to a lot of playing time and
opportunities starting September for Clark.

Hansen's fantasy analysis: Clark's problem is that he a bit of a
"tweener," so his lack of size could prevent him from seeing the field
a
lot. But if he goes to a team that wants to use him primarily as a
receiver, the sky could be the limit.
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Postby Slingblade » Sun Apr 06, 2003 2:55 pm

good stuff
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Postby Cupertino_11 » Sun Apr 06, 2003 4:37 pm

Aye......good reading Nero. ;-)
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Postby hayesb26 » Sun Apr 06, 2003 6:33 pm

nice post.. :-D
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Postby Indy Dragons » Sun Apr 06, 2003 6:40 pm

Great info!
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Postby Homeless » Mon Apr 07, 2003 12:00 am

Great post Nero....
Gonna have to post this again near draft time, see if these guys are on the money.
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Postby fntsyrookie » Mon Apr 07, 2003 7:17 am

Yeah there is some good info there.
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Postby kashikis » Mon Apr 07, 2003 2:10 pm

yeah nice find nero thx a lot! :-)
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What the hell.... is goin' on.... in the NFL?!
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