So the chiefs draft Larry Johnson (RB) and theyve said Holmes wont be ready for mini camp and may miss training camp, these are not good indicators for Holmes
Im guessing we wont know much more about him until near the season start.
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I liked the straight-forward analysis from this guy on the LJ pick...
"How hurt is Priest Holmes? Worse than the Chiefs have let on, evidently. That's undoubtedly why K.C. took Johnson, a 2,000-yard rusher with the Nittany Lions. Johnson is a grueling back, a guy who can control the tempo of the game by eating up the clock and one who can catch it out of the backfield, as well. How hurt is Holmes? So bad, evidently, that the Chiefs picked a running back in the first round instead of trying to address what was the worst defense in the league in '02 -- 390.5 yards a game allowed. "
Ugh.....don't think I'll be taking a chance on Holmes this year.
I the Chiefs arent really sure how hurt Holmes is after all. If holmes s fine than Johnson makes a great change of pace kind of guy he is more of a straight ahead runner where Holmes is more of a slasher. He is also great insurance if Holmes get hurt again also Holmes isnt getting any younger!!
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I have to agree that this is an indicator that the Chiefs are worried about Holmes' status at this point. I think this drops Holmes off the fantasy charts for this year, although people will no doubt gamble on him. Very rarely is any RB at the top of the fantasy heap for long; it's time to write off the real Holmes and look for This Year's Priest Holmes. Many of last year's big names are going into this season with huge question marks over their heads. RBs will have to be pretty thin for me to take Holmes in the first couple of rounds.
I expect Travis Henry to be this year's Priest Holmes; similar situation, he's coming off a big year and alot of people will think it was just a fluke season. He feels pressure now from the Bills taking a RB in the first round. With Price gone, I suspect that Moulds and Henry will pick up most of the slack and that Reed will have a roller coaster season as double coverage on Moulds forces alot of plays his way. In 2004, Reed will own, but I think this year he has some very big shoes to fill and it's going to be tough to handle. Look for Henry to get more scores this year.
For folks who don't like to gamble (IE everyone who drafted Ricky Williams last year), LDT is obviously the safe bet.
I'm a big believer in the Stud Running Back theory and I can tell you that I'm hoping that I don't draft higher than like 4th this year in any of my leagues because there isn't any runningback that I'd want to grab with the 1st three picks. I'd be much more comfortable drafting Henry, LDT, or Portis in the 4th or 5th spot than drafting first or 2nd and wondering if I should use the pick on Holmes, Faulk, Green, etc.
I'm very weary of Holmes and don't plan on considering him at all. Even if he does come back and play, I see them reducing some of the pounding and giving Johnson the rock at times. I also doubt he sees as many goal-line carries to also reduce some of that pounding.
Then who else is a stud running back? LT2 was gone with the 1st, Rasta with the 2nd, Portis will be gone with the 3rd pick...And I pick 10th. Who else would you consider to be a stud?
I'm thinking that if Holmes drops to me, I might take him.