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Postby DraftDodger » Mon Apr 28, 2003 2:00 am

A definite paranoia paradigm pick. The Colts probably didn't hide their interest well enough and someone else in their division mentioned off-handedly (while trying not to break out in a shit-eating grin) that they were going to draft Clarke if he fell near the 2nd round.

This is difficult for us to fathom sometimes but a team can get so high on a particular player that they convince themselves that everyone else covets that player too, forgetting that the other teams have different wants and needs. In the first round, especially, teams should avoid reaching. So what if a player slips by you? You can probably trade a couple of lesser picks to get him from the drafting team if you really want him, and meanwhile you've gotten more real value for your first round money by drafting a player projected as a 1st rounder.

Keep this in mind when drafting for a fantasy team. Sure, you want a guy like Shockey or Gonzo for your TE but in many scoring formats they're not going to give you the production of a top RB, so drafting one of them in the 1st round isn't a value pick. It's good to do some upside down mock drafting to see what happens when you focus on Defense, TE, and Kicker in the early rounds. You generally see why most winners draft those positions so late. In a live draft, I'd rate the top few TE's ahead of even the best WRs (because the separation is so great between a top TE and the "average" TE). In an automated, draft by position league, I'm going to draft TE pretty late because 5 other guys trying for TEs ahead of me in the 3rd round would leave me with a TE who wasn't much better than the TEs I could get in the 8th round or later. I still cringe when I think of a 12-team autodraft I did last year where 10 people drafted QBs in the First Round. Because of the weirdness, I ended up with 3 RBs who all should have been 1st round picks. And you know who all those guys were trying to get? Kurt Warner. ROFLMAO
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Postby Arlo » Mon Apr 28, 2003 6:35 am

Excellent point about the difference between live drafts and auto-drafts! ;-D

Definitely something to keep in mind...
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Postby fntsyrookie » Mon Apr 28, 2003 7:11 am

I agree with what DD said. The Colts probably had the blinders on a little bit here. They were focused on getting this guy no matter what, and even know he may have been there in the 2nd took him with the 1st. I hope he pans out for Payton and Co.
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Postby DUKE » Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:52 am

I agree that it looks stupid this early, but if he ends up being as good as they obviously think, then they will look smart. We really don't know how any of these picks were until they put on the pads and play.
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Postby kashikis » Mon Apr 28, 2003 9:26 am

i really think they did better than some people think. yes there might have been overall better talent guys out there but they drafted as to what will help their team the most. getting a rookie WR wont help you that much this year considering almost any decent CB can shut down a rook WR in their first year simply because they are new to the NFL game. especially when they arent the top echelon WR of the draft. selecting a TE helps them several ways:

1. helps spread the field with 2 good rec TE's - thins out secodary for harrison to work
2. can helps with blocking assignment and out in the flat dumpoffs to buy manning more time and give him an out
3. manning like the 2 TE set and works well out of it, once they lost dilger you could see the downgrade in his play (not the only reason but didnt help) and dilger isnt that good the body more than the man is important
4. they get mismatches galore - with 2 fast good-handed the will get mismatches if/when a LB is stuck chasing either TE

so actually in all honesty they might have passed on better players and maybe even a hole or too they needed filled but they got the guy who will help them the most. their defense is coming around with dungy there and with the doss pick they get help there as well. they also get the one guy they think they needed to propel that offense back to a top 3-5 offensive unit.
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