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OK, I looked at the FAQ thread, but...

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OK, I looked at the FAQ thread, but...

Postby chinch sacs » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:28 am

I am still having a hard time...

I get the spreads I think...

EXAMPLE: OAK vs PIT, PIT are the favorite and the spread is 4...

that means if I put my money on PIT, they must beat Da Raiders by at least 5 points to win, right? Becuase if the final score is

OAK: 13 and PIT: 17 it would be a push.

Conversely, If I put the cash on OAK, they dont even need to win the game, they just need to either win or only lose by 3 points or less...

Where I am running into a prob is in the over/under...

EXAMPLE: Back to Oakland and Pittsburg we go...

The Over/Under for the OAK vs PIT is 41 pts

If I think, "hmmm, going to be much more scoring than that", and I put my money on the "over" and say the score ends up being...

OAK: 27 and PIT: 21 (equal to 48 points)

Then I win? there is nothing else to consider besides the final score?

I have a hard time with this because in theory, that means the oddsmakers can only be right on the over/under if the score ends up being the exact # of points they picked (i.e. the 41 for the OAK vs PIT game)

PLEASE HELP! ;-D
Fantasy sports are dominated by the 50-50-90 rule.
any time you have a 50/50 choice on something,
90% of the time you'll get it wrong.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:01 am

You are right with everything except that you did not take the juice into consideration on the over/under.

All of these bets are -110 (sometimes reduced to -105 on Fridays to encourage betting on one side to even out the bets). This means that you have to bet $110 to win $100.

So on the Pitt over/under, if the exact same money was bet on the over as on the under, the sportsbook would still make 10%.

This is why on the over/under the sportsbook don't care so much for picking the right combined score as to pick the right combined score that will encourage even betting - their goal is to get the exact same amount bet on the over as on the under.

If sportsbooks get too much action on one side they will adjust the lines and the juice to encourage betting on the other side. If the action is sudden and unexpected they will spread the bets out with other sportsbooks and even buy insurance sometimes. If the betting on one side gets too heavy they will even take the game off the board. Seems like everybody except the sportsbook likes betting on sports.

Also, if the score lands on 41 exactly, it would be a push and you would get your bet back.
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Postby chinch sacs » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:51 pm

OK, I think I see what you are saying :-°


They bookies are trying to get the sames number of bets on the over AND the under becuse if they get 100 people to take the over, and 100 people to take the under, they will break even with the payouts, but will still make the 10% juice from each of the losers...

Nice, I need to be a bookie... :-B

Thanks for the help ;-D
Fantasy sports are dominated by the 50-50-90 rule.
any time you have a 50/50 choice on something,
90% of the time you'll get it wrong.
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Postby tman570 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:02 pm

chinch sacs wrote:OK, I think I see what you are saying :-°


They bookies are trying to get the sames number of bets on the over AND the under becuse if they get 100 people to take the over, and 100 people to take the under, they will break even with the payouts, but will still make the 10% juice from each of the losers...

Nice, I need to be a bookie... :-B

Thanks for the help ;-D


Exactly...its nice until you try and collect from deadbeats...
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