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Yet Another Draft Article...

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Yet Another Draft Article...

Postby Dan » Sun Aug 04, 2002 3:23 am

Surfing through fantasy sites at this time of the year you can find draft articles almost everywhere. There are intersting ones, funny ones, stupid ones and of coz bad ones! Nevertheless we haven't hesitated kicking out one, too. So tell us what you like, tell us what you don't like, and - ultimately - what you would like to read next time!
Dan
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Awesome article on how to set up forthe draft.

Postby Kurgan Warrior » Tue Aug 13, 2002 2:33 am

I was just surfing through some sites and found this one and I couldn't agree with the strategy on setting up for a successful season fantasy season more. I lucked out and got pick #1 in my fantasy league and I took Marshall but it's a slow live draft with 24 hours allowed between picks (we get 1 round done a day as a rule though.) Thats PLENTY of time to get caught shifting away from my game plan... but I won't let it happen.

I like finding sites with good , sound advice in them to keep me focused. Kudos.
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Can't agree more

Postby GMAN » Tue Aug 13, 2002 10:28 pm

Dan, I want to thank you for a great aritcle!! I have a new partnet this year and he does not understand why it is SO important to take running backs in the first round. Your article will help him to see the light. ;-D
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Fantasy Draft

Postby TAR6924 » Thu Aug 15, 2002 7:06 pm

:-C The first pick is obvious, Marshall Faulk! After that it is not so clear, even if Edgrin James is 100% he will probably get plenty of rest with Dominic Rhodes there to provide support. He is definetly a gamble That early in the draft. Ahman Green and Shawn Alexander are for sure safer bets!
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Draft day

Postby TV Star » Thu Aug 15, 2002 9:37 pm

You hit the nail right on the head !!! Point Blank !!

Very insightful ![/b]
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By the Rounds

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Aug 16, 2002 4:13 pm

This appears to be the first half of a longer article (one including tips on dropping and adding players during the season) but it is still pretty complete by itself. Nice job. Here are some thoughts of my own to throw into the mix:

I've done quite a bit of mock drafting, and if it's any indication, here is a general look at the first 10 rounds (will explain the significance after the list):

Round 1: You will see 8-10 RBs, 1-2 QBs and 1-2 WRs drafted.
Round 2: 5-7 RBs, 3-5 QBs, 2-3 WRs
Round 3: 5-7 RBs, 1-3 QBs, 2-5 WRs
Round 4: 5 RBs, 1-2 QBs, 4-5 WRs, 1 TE
Round 5: 4-6 RBs, 1-2 QBs, 3-6 WRs
Round 6: 1-4 RBs, 1 QB, 5-9 WRs, 1-2 TEs
Round 7: 2 RBs, 1-2 QBs, 4-6 WRs, 2-4 TEs, 0-1 DTs
Round 8: 0-2 RBs, 6-7 QBs, 3 WRs, 0-3 TEs, 0-1 DTs, 0-1 PKs
Round 9: 0-3 RBs, 3-8 QBs, 1-2 WRs, 1-2 TEs, 1-2 DTS, 0-1 PKs
Rnd 10: 2-4 RBs, 1-3 QBs, 2-4 WRs, 2-3 TEs, 0-1 DTs, 1 PK

I don't claim that these numbers will hold true in every draft, but they are good indicators. With these numbers in hand, you can really test any drafting combination without even drafting.

Let's say you want to go QB, RB, WR with first 3 picks:

Round 1 QB: You will likely get the #1 or #2 QB in the Draft
Round 2 RB: You will likely get an RB ranked 9th to 17th
Round 3 WR: You will likely get an WR ranked 5th to 10th.

These positions are based on adding up the minimum numbers drafted up to and including a certain round, and doing the same for the max drafted.

What do the numbers show us? For one thing, talent at Running Back dries up very quickly. By the end of the 3rd round, there could be as many as 24 RBs drafted, putting you in a bad way if you draft 3.12 and took other positions with your first two draft choices. On the other hand, at that point only 10 QBs max are gone and only 10 WRs max.

If you were trying to Min-Max your top 3 picks among RBs, QBs, and WRs, then drafting RB QB WR would give you the best odds of getting 3 top notch players. You would get the #1-#10 RB, the #3-#5 QB, and the #5th to #10th WR.

Realistically, looking at these numbers, RBs with the #1 and #2 pick are the best way to go. In fact, the first 10 draft choices should look like: RB, RB, WR, WR, RB (if you don't want a one-legged, 40 year old man as your backup RB), QB, QB (of you don't want Sack Me Now as your backup), WR (some nice depth and great sleepers at this position), TE, DT. After the first 8 picks, you are pretty much home free on starters, as PKs and DTs are easy to get.

You can see that there are runs on certain positions at different times. RBs disappear immediately, then WRs, then QBs. After that, the TEs go. By the time you choose a PK and DT there are plenty of good ones left, so they aren't such a concern (although you can use my stats above to snag top positions there if you like). For example, you can probably get a top 3 PK in round 10 or a top 2 DT in round 8 if you want to sacrifice depth at another position. If you're in a live draft, snagging a top 10 TE in round 8 may make more sense than settling for a #23-#39 WR.
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RB RB compared to QB RB

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Aug 16, 2002 5:16 pm

Using my system (and drafting only skill position starters from the first 5 rounds), and opening up Charpentier's FF Draft Guide 2002, I compared the drafting order of RB, RB, WR, WR, QB with the drafting order of QB, RB, RB, WR, WR.

In the best case scenario (you get the best possible player available at that position each round), the RB, RB, WR, WR, QB positioning outscored the other by 146 fantasy points. Even if you get the worst remaining pick each round, the system still comes out slightly ahead at +16 fantasy points. The big dropoff occurs because the worst case scenario compares the #10 RB to the #2 QB, whereas the best case is comparing #1 RB to #1 QB.

The name of the game is depth. Unless you are the foremost authority on up and coming NFL RBs, you will need to draft RBs early and heavily to gain depth. The pool of WRs is much deeper, with many sleeper picks available (like Finneran in Atlanta, who is rarely drafted even as a 3rd WR but who could easily have a breakout season this year after working out off-season with Vick). Even without sleepers, there are many 3rd position WRs who post decent numbers each year, whereas most 3rd position RBs rarely get off the bench.

Draft wisely.
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Postby Dabears » Mon Aug 19, 2002 5:52 pm

;-D Love the article dan. Helped me grasp more things for my upcoming draft.
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atwoin smith, Stephen Davis, or Eddie George

Postby mjb » Wed Aug 21, 2002 11:49 pm

I am in a keeper league, and I have Kurt Warner as my number 1 automatically, but my second pick looks to be between A. Smith, S. Davis, or E. George. I know I need a RB, but this is a tough decision. If for some reason A-train is still around, I will go after him, but my gut tells me it will be these three.

Who should I go with, and why??? I have heard good things about all three, but I can't decide among them.

MJB
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the Envelope please ...

Postby DraftDodger » Thu Aug 22, 2002 1:56 am

Eddie George ;-D

The Titans have the easier schedule. They start off against some tough teams, but they have a very easy schedule afterwards and going into what will be your playoff weeks. George is usually ranked higher than either of the other two, and I think that's basically due to the strength of schedule comparisons.
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