Wesley Walker wrote:I think that a very big part of managing a winning fantasy football team is the ability to look at a player's performance in one game and determine whether it is (a) reflective of a greater trend or (b) sort of a fluke, or a one-time thing. This is the whole point. This is where skill comes into play in fantasy sports.
Anyone can draft Priest Holmes first and avoid Tommy Maddox altogether, but what if David Carr throws for 350 and 4 during Week 1? Does that mean pick him up off the wire if he's available or trade for him? Or what if Ahman Green rushes for 60 yards on 18 carries and no scores? Does that mean he's a second-rate fantasy back all of a sudden?
Another case in point: Edge. He rushed for 142, but fumbled twice. It's my hunch that he'll put up similar rushing numbers through out the season, though not necessarily 140 every week; and that he may well go the entire season without fumbling twice in a game again.
That's the thing with fantasy football. One must separate the wheat from the chaff.
It's been my experience that discerning trends versus freak performances is difficult, but your ability to recognize them will make all the difference if you want to win your league.
That said, I took a pass on Anquan Boldin after week 1 last year and he went on to catch 101 balls on the season.