by Kensat30 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 6:36 pm
If you look at the stats alone, Marvin Harrison has looked a lot like Rod Smith in the first two games this year. Does that make Marvin Harrison a possession WR? Looking at the factors behind the stats, I don't think this is necessarily the case at all.
First and most importantly, The Colts have perhaps the toughest early 2004 schedule in the NFL with games against the Pats, Titans, and Packers back to back to back. In the first two games, Harrison has had a very pedestrian yards per catch average simply based on the type of production they've needed out of Marvin.
We're not used to seeing Harrison used solely on slants, hooks, and crossing patterns within 5-10 yards because Marvin is such an excellent all around WR. But if you consider how and when Marvin is being used it makes a lot of sense in what they are doing.
When you need a guaranteed play, goto the sure hands: Marvin. When you want to take a shot at something bigger on 2nd down, shift the attention away from Harrison and target Wayne and Co. In such tight games, it just doesn't make sense to take chances on throwing the deep post, fade, fly to Marvin on every other series. The Colt's need someone to make a "tough" (Harrison makes it look easy) 8 yard catch to keep the chains moving. If it wasn't for Harrinson, NO ONE would be getting deep looks period.
It's real easy to post 10 ypc when you are getting tackled as soon as you catch the ball and only get 2 or 3 opportunities to run deep routes per game. Don't assume that Marvin still doesn't have that ability (see 35 yard sideline catch). All it takes is one 40 yard catch to change 10ypc into a 14ypc. All it takes is one 40 yard catch to turn a 50/1 statline into a 90/2.
If you think the Colt's are going to play conservative against Kansas City, Minnesota, Houston, and San Diego..... trade Marvin now.
My advice, be patient with Marvin and take the guaranteed 10 points a week against tough opponents, because when he gets a chance to bump that average back up to where it should be, he's going to win you some matchups.