Las Vegas on Week 3 (and other useful stats)

[Wesley Walker]

Points Scored by Team:
KC 28.25
DEN 28
STL 27.5
SEA 27.5
IND 27.25
MIN 26.75
ATL 26.25
PHI 24
GB 21.25
TEN 21
NO 20.5
HOU 20.25
NYG 20
DET 20
WAS 19.25
OAK 19
BAL 18.75
SD 18
CHI 17.75
MIA 17.5
CLE 17
DAL 16.75
PIT 16.5
SF 16.5
CIN 16.25
ARI 16.25
TB 15.5
JAX 15

Points Allowed by Team:
TEN 15
OAK 15.5
ATL 16.25
BAL 16.25
SEA 16.5
MIA 16.5
WAS 16.75
NYG 17
PIT 17.5
MIN 17.75
DEN 18
CIN 18.75
TB 19
DAL 19.25
PHI 20
CLE 20
KC 20.25
STL 20.5
JAX 21
IND 21.25
DET 24
ARI 26.25
CHI 26.75
GB 27.25
NO 27.5
SF 27.5
SD 28
HOU 28.25

Note: Some of the Vegas sportsbooks have the KC game off the board because of Priest's unkown status. Once his status becomes known, those sportsbooks that have the game up may shift their lines a bit.

[Duff Man]

hey this is interesting . . . I'm pretty new to online betting and have never seen someone back into the team by team point projections like that. This provides a useful perspective b/c you can start to question assumptions about individual teams, especially if you're looking to bet on the over/under.

Does Vegas set their spreads and over/unders by starting with projected points scored for each team?

[Wesley Walker]

This provides a useful perspective b/c you can start to question assumptions about individual teams, especially if you're looking to bet on the over/under.

To some extent maybe, but very little gets by the Vegas people and they are seldom wrong by very much. When they are wrong, the clones are wrong by more, and much more often.

But it is interesting, for example, that KC and the Rams are still expected to put up huge points every week considering they've not been that sharp in the first two weeks of the season. The Rams have scored 17 pts in each of their first two games. The Chiefs have scored 24 and 17, respectively, for an average of 20.5 pts per game.

Seems to me that Minnesota will be this year's high-scoring offense, and maybe Seattle if they can get it going.

Does Vegas set their spreads and over/unders by starting with projected points scored for each team?

Definitely not. The oddsmakers won't think about how many points a team will score; rather, they'll think about how many total points will be scored. It's a subtle distinction, but times of possession, turnovers, and special teams all come into play. Teams like Oakland or Miami who, this year anyway, aren't playing pretty football offensively but can hold opponents with good D and special teams, will generally have low over/unders in their games.

This method of taking over/iners AND point spreads into accoung to figure pt scored by each team is highly imperfect. Since over/unders and point spreads are created quite independently from one another, Kansas City, for example could receive a very high over/under (b/c of their offense, which is thought of as "high powered") and their defense (lackluster). They may be playing at home against a mediocre team and be made 6-pt favorites. This may tend to skew their pts scored (if calculated as one-half the over/under plus one-half the spread) upward. Not what Vegas intends. As if they intend for anything but to get half the bets on one side of the coin and half on the other, thereby ensuring they'll make money no matter the result.

[Wesley Walker]

Here's something useful...

Pts per game by NFL Teams (includes FGs, safeties, and defensive and special teams TDs)

New York Jets 32.5 
Philadelphia Eagles 29.0 
Atlanta Falcons 27.5 
San Diego Chargers 27.5 
Indianapolis Colts 27.5 
Minnesota Vikings 25.5 
New England Patriots 25.0 
Detroit Lions 24.0 
San Francisco 49ers 23.0 
Carolina Panthers 21.0 
Kansas City Chiefs 20.5 
Denver Broncos 20.0 
Cincinnati Bengals 20.0 
New Orleans Saints 18.5 
Pittsburgh Steelers 18.5 
Chicago Bears 18.5 
New York Giants 18.5 
Dallas Cowboys 18.0 
Houston Texans 18.0 
Green Bay Packers 17.0 
Tennessee Titans 17.0 
St. Louis Rams 17.0 
Oakland Raiders 17.0 
Baltimore Ravens 16.5 
Cleveland Browns 16.0 
Seattle Seahawks 15.5 
Washington Redskins 15.0 
Arizona Cardinals 11.0 
Buffalo Bills 10.0 
Miami Dolphins 10.0 
Jacksonville Jaguars 10.0 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.0 

Offensive TDs score by team (only rushing and receiving TDs from scrimmage -- no special teams or defensive TDs included)

New York (A) 7
Philadelphia 7
Indianapolis 7
San Diego 6
Atlanta 6
Minnesota 6
Carolina 6
San Francisco 5
New England 5
Pittsburgh 5
Detroit 4
Kansas City 4
Chicago 4
Denver 4
New Orleans 4
Dallas 4
Houston 4
Green Bay 4
Seattle 4
Cincinnati 3
New York (N) 3
Tennessee 3
St. Louis 3
Washington 3
Oakland 3
Baltimore 2
Cleveland 2
Arizona 2
Buffalo 2
Miami 2
Jacksonville 2
Tampa Bay 0

[Wesley Walker]

Nothing earth-shattering, but the Vegas sportsbooks have dropped to over/under in the rescheduled Miami game to 32 (from 34).

[MeShawn]

Wow, TB has scored 8 pts, and they don't even have an offensive TD

[CC]

TB scored 10 against Washington so that can't be right.

[Wesley Walker]

TB scored 10 against Washington so that can't be right.

Tampa has scored 16 pts this year, 8 per game, no offensive TDs.

[monkey69]

I think the second set of stats are more telling - the Vegas lines are a bit off for what has happened thus far in the season - seem to be based on last years numbers to some extent as well.

Interesting post - take a look at mine when you get the chance.