Duff Man wrote:This provides a useful perspective b/c you can start to question assumptions about individual teams, especially if you're looking to bet on the over/under.
To some extent maybe, but very little gets by the Vegas people and they are seldom wrong by very much. When they are wrong, the clones are wrong by more, and much more often.
But it is interesting, for example, that KC and the Rams are still expected to put up huge points every week considering they've not been that sharp in the first two weeks of the season. The Rams have scored 17 pts in each of their first two games. The Chiefs have scored 24 and 17, respectively, for an average of 20.5 pts per game.
Seems to me that Minnesota will be this year's high-scoring offense, and maybe Seattle if they can get it going.
Duff Man wrote:Does Vegas set their spreads and over/unders by starting with projected points scored for each team?
Definitely not. The oddsmakers won't think about how many points a team will score; rather, they'll think about how many total points will be scored. It's a subtle distinction, but times of possession, turnovers, and special teams all come into play. Teams like Oakland or Miami who, this year anyway, aren't playing pretty football offensively but can hold opponents with good D and special teams, will generally have low over/unders in their games.
This method of taking over/iners AND point spreads into accoung to figure pt scored by each team is highly imperfect. Since over/unders and point spreads are created quite independently from one another, Kansas City, for example could receive a very high over/under (b/c of their offense, which is thought of as "high powered") and their defense (lackluster). They may be playing at home against a mediocre team and be made 6-pt favorites. This may tend to skew their pts scored (if calculated as one-half the over/under plus one-half the spread) upward. Not what Vegas intends. As if they intend for anything but to get half the bets on one side of the coin and half on the other, thereby ensuring they'll make money no matter the result.