Plindsey88 wrote:What I meant by luck is that a lot of determining which team will be the high scorer on a given week is based on luck... We can narrow it down to several most likely options, like this week:
But who's to say that Sean Taylor doesn't end up with 2 picks returned for TD's on Monday Night Football, and all of a sudden Washington was the stud play of the week? I mean, with other positions, we can be reasonably certain that James Thrash is not going to outscore Keyshawn Johnson in that game (although stranger things have happened), but there is really no telling which D will end up scoring higher and by how much... It could really go either way, and the same could be said of ANY other NFL game... When it comes to a position that is that heavily dependent on turnover scoring, it really does come down to how the ball bounces sometimes...
The only really true indicator that we can go off of is a comparison of offensive lines and defensive lines to help determine sacks and overall points scored... IMO, defensive matchups are as much a matter of picking the best line matchups as anything else...
I agree - there is absolutely a measure of luck involved - no one can honestly deny that. I also like that the theory about narrowing down the best options each week - so true - its all an educated guess.
However, Im not so sure its based so much on OLines - but more likely a number of different factors such as injuries, styles of offense and defense, and of course the skills of the players, not to mention the strength of the lines too. There are lots of factors to consider when looking into the weekly defensive matchups.
Yeah, I'd give up Wheatley too. But my backs are Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Westbrook, Thomas Jones and Foster. I feel sorry for anyone with Wheatley on their roster.
Plindsey88 wrote:What I meant by luck is that a lot of determining which team will be the high scorer on a given week is based on luck... We can narrow it down to several most likely options, like this week:
But who's to say that Sean Taylor doesn't end up with 2 picks returned for TD's on Monday Night Football, and all of a sudden Washington was the stud play of the week? I mean, with other positions, we can be reasonably certain that James Thrash is not going to outscore Keyshawn Johnson in that game (although stranger things have happened), but there is really no telling which D will end up scoring higher and by how much... It could really go either way, and the same could be said of ANY other NFL game... When it comes to a position that is that heavily dependent on turnover scoring, it really does come down to how the ball bounces sometimes...
The only really true indicator that we can go off of is a comparison of offensive lines and defensive lines to help determine sacks and overall points scored... IMO, defensive matchups are as much a matter of picking the best line matchups as anything else...
I agree - there is absolutely a measure of luck involved - no one can honestly deny that. I also like that the theory about narrowing down the best options each week - so true - its all an educated guess. However, Im not so sure its based so much on OLines - but more likely a number of different factors such as injuries, styles of offense and defense, and of course the skills of the players, not to mention the strength of the lines too. There are lots of factors to consider when looking into the weekly defensive matchups.
As cliche as it sounds, everything depends on line play, though... Give me a defense with a great D-line against an offense with a horrible O-line over Denver w/ Champ Bailey against one of the better O-lines in football any day of the week...
That's why Miami is so awful this year, and why any defense that they face all year long will be a good play...
Pressure leads to all of the things that score points for defenses: Sacks, Interceptions, Fumbles, Blocked Kicks, Safeties, Low Scoring games, etc... They all center around good line play, getting pressure on the QB, and stuffing the run...
In my league, we only have to play 1 receiver. We have 3 flex, so i play 4 RB. Since my 2nd receiver is only there for Moss's bye week, or in case he gets hurt, I would consider trading him away. But if I were in a league that required 2 starting receivers, I'd hang onto my #2 guy.
I had the NE defense last year and they scored quite a few points pretty regularly. It was a good thing to have to count on and I was rarely disappointed by them.
Cafe Home
Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:24 pm 
