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How to do Projections

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How to do Projections

Postby GoldDiggers » Tue Jun 10, 2003 12:57 pm

This will be my 4th year of fantasy football, playing in a keeper league. Previous years I always used player projections that I found on the internet. I found that for the most part they are not that accurate. This year I decided that I want to do my own projections - but I am not sure how to go about it. I know the whole concept, I'm just not sure what data to analyze or use to come to the final decision about how many TDs someone will have or how many rushing yards they will get versus fumbles. What should I use to help make these decisions?
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Postby Poobah » Tue Jun 10, 2003 1:04 pm

To be honest, I spend more time determining relative value rather than projections, because as you have said, it's too hard to be accurate.

You should look at injury history, look at last year's stats, look at college performance in the case of rookies, look for new coaches, coordinators, and offensive system.

Look at who was lost or picked up in free agency and the draft. A different QB affects RB and WR. A decimated OL hurts. A stifling defense helps an offense or makes a coach play ball-control, limiting the QB and WR, but helping a RB (did anyone hear me think BALTIMORE really loudly?)...

A lot of people look at schedule, but I think that's overrated. First, teams rise and fall too quickly. Once you have a roster of people, you can look for individual matchups, but you have no way of breaking down a season, game-by-game, for 200 fantasy players.

Sorry if I sound like a pessimist, but that's not even everything, as I am sure my peers will be about to tell you :-)
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Postby Endzone Express » Tue Jun 10, 2003 1:14 pm

Good advice Poobah!

When separating two or more similar players, you've got to compare each players offensive value to his team. Not always an exact science either though.
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Postby 9er Fan » Tue Jun 10, 2003 1:48 pm

1. How did the player perform last year? - This is probably the #1 metric by which most lists are ranked, and a good starting point.

2. How has the player performed over the past several years? - Consistency is key. If a player has produced for several years, he will probably produce next year. This is the reason guys like Toomer should be ranked higher, and guys like A-Train (going into last season) should be ranked lower.

3. Performance trend. - Is he a young player that has improved the last couple seasons? Maybe you should move him up your list.

4. Injury history. - Self-explanatory. If you select Deuce McCallister/Faulk #1 overall, or Boston early, and they get nicked up for a few games or worse, you have only yourself to blame.

5. What's changed? New teamates, coach, team, etc. - This is important, especially for ranking sleepers. Owners that took a chance on Moulds in last year's draft (after the Bledsoe arrival) were well rewarded. This is why lots of people are so high on Stephen Davis.

To me the biggest thing is having the guts to play a couple hunches. The teams that won last year are the teams that took a chance on players like Vick, Moulds, Henry, Portis, etc. If there's a sleeper people know about for next year, and he's going in round 7 in most mock drafts, don't be afraid to take him in round 5 or 6 if you believe in him.
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Postby VIPER » Tue Jun 10, 2003 3:47 pm

Poobah wrote:Look at who was lost or picked up in free agency and the draft. A different QB affects RB and WR. A decimated OL hurts. A stifling defense helps an offense or makes a coach play ball-control, limiting the QB and WR, but helping a RB (did anyone hear me think BALTIMORE really loudly?)...




I like your thinking Poobah!! ;-D
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Postby Arlo » Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:05 pm

Great advice! ;-D

One more thing to keep in mind when creating projections is that your numbers have to add up. It's astonishing how many projections wind up with, say, far more touchdown receptions than touchdown passes for a given team... :-)
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Postby GoldDiggers » Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:10 pm

That's great advice guys...thanks very much!

I'm still a little confused about the bottom line though. Can some one give me an example. Let's use Stephen Davis since everyone seems to like him this year. If we were to project the number of TDs and total yards rushing, how would we do it? What would the final projection be and how did we get to that number?
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Postby Slingblade » Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:12 pm

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Postby 9er Fan » Tue Jun 10, 2003 5:44 pm

Watch, it's easy...

Stephen Davis will have 1433 yards rushing, 215 yards receiving, 11 TDs, and a 2-point conversion.

See?


Sorry, I misunderstood the question. I haven't really ever tried to predict actual numbers for all the players in the draft before, I just rank them in relation to each other.
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Postby Homeless » Tue Jun 10, 2003 8:45 pm

I think everyone has got you covered here, but i wanted to add this fact:

One guy in my league does his own projections every year and has always made the playoffs and won 2 of the last 5 yrs championship games. The other thing of note is that he often drafts players who you might not think should be taken when he takes them, but they always seem to perfom better than most expected.

(Its not me by the way, I do a lot of research and make my own cheat sheets but not to the level this guy does.)
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