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Gauging the value of an injured player...Discuss.

Postby warrick95 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:36 pm

This is sort of the quality vs. quantity debate. At what point in stats, do you say, to hell with getting more quality weeks (with risks), out of a better player, than a larger quantity of playing time, with worse stats, of a lesser player.

Here are some injured players:
S. Smith (although he may be done until the FF playoffs, so he's probably waiver wire material)
Heap...with a player at TE, it's definitely better to hang onto him now, due to the scarcity at the position.
S. Davis (but Foster is lurking right behind him and he will be back soon). Foster severely complicates the matter.

So basically, what do y'all think about Deuce and Boldin. Boldin'll be out for about four weeks...about the same for Deuce, I believe. So, what is their worth now. A lot of it concerns where your team is now (if you're 3-0, by all means, wait, if you're 1-2 or so, it may be a better idea to get something going now)...but I'm talking in general. What RB do you think an injured Deuce is worth now. At a deeper WR position, what WR would Boldin be worth now? Discuss...and I'll chime in with my thoughts later.
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Postby matmat » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:11 pm

this really depends on:
1) the depth of your league
2) your ability to gauge injuries.

This is all math (albeit quite approximate).

Say player A performs at a certain level (16 points/week) when he is healthy. When he is hurt he doesn't play and you replacement for him (Player B whether a backup or a WW pickup) gets roughly 10 points/week. Now assume that for the remainder of the year your stud, player A, will sit out a total of 4 games (of the 13 left). That means that you will score 9x16+4x10 = 184 points out of that slot. Now say someone offers you a trade of Player C for player A, straight up... Player C is likely to stay healthy the whole season, but likely to only score 13 points/week -- that gives you 13x13=169 points... what if it's 14? 182: not much differene from your other combination; HOWEVER -- if you keep your stud, that increases your chance of winning 9 out of the 13 weeks and you have less of a chance the other 4 weeks, whereas if you trade him away, you greatly increase your chance of winning over the 4 weeks, but reduce it over the remaining 9.

in short... it's a cost analysis... I'd keep deuce and as for boldin -- it really depends who is out there on the WW.

i hope that made sense.
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Postby Arlo » Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:02 pm

matmat wrote:this really depends on:
1) the depth of your league
2) your ability to gauge injuries.

I'll add one:

3) your league's playoff structure

If eight out of twelve teams make the playoffs and you have a solid squad, I wouldn't hesitate to hang on to or pursue players who may miss significant time. If, on the other hand, only four out of sixteen teams head to the post-season, you might not be able to afford to do so.
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