Week 5 matchups: The good, the bad, the ugly

[KingGhidra]

This is what excel is telling me for week 5.

Passing:

Tier 1: Outstandingly good
Indy vs Oakland
Minny @ Houston
NY Jets vs Buffalo
Seattle vs St. Louis
Houston vs Minny

Manning: 199 yards, 3 tds 1 int = 17 ffp
Culpepper: 394 yards, 5 tds = 35 ffp
Carr: 370 yards, 3 tds = 26 ffp
Pennington: 304 yards, 1 td 1 int = 16 ffp
Hasselbeck: 216 yards, 2 tds = 16 ffp

Depends on how strict you want to be. Passing for 300 yards or 2+ TDs is a pretty successfull day if you ask me. More or less 5 for 5.

Tier 2: good to very good
Denver vs Carolina
Tennessee @ Green Bay
Oakland @ Indy
Jax @ San Diego
New England vs Miami
NY Football Giants @ Dallas
Dallas vs NY Football Giants
Green Bay vs Tennesse
San Diego vs Jax
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay
Arizona @ San Francisco

Collins: 245 yards, 1 td 3 ints (this is good for him) = 3 ffp
Brady: 76 yards, 2 tds, 1 int = 9 ffp
Warner: 217 yards, 1 td = 12 ffp
Testaverde: 126 yards, 1 td 1 int = 6 ffp
Brooks: 108 yards, 2 tds 1 int = 14 ffp
Plummer: 226 yards, 2 tds 2 int = 13 ffp
Leftwich: 357 yards, 1 td 2 ints = 14 ffp
Brees: 211 yards, 2 tds = 16 ffp
McCown: 231 yards, 3 tds 1 int = 19 ffp

Considering who these guys are, most of them played rather well or out of their mind. Only Brooks and Brady really underachieved. Matchups can't save Collins who has had 2 prime matchups the past 2 weeks.

Tier 3: average to above average
Pitt vs Cleveland
Detroit @ Atlanta

Harrington: 148 yards, 1 td = 9 ffp
Big Ben: 231 yards, 1 td 1 int = 11 ffp

I think we are getting a good idea of what "average" is for Joey Harrington.

Tier 4: below average
Tampa @ New Orleans
Carolina @ Denver

Griese: 194 yards, 1 td = 11 ffp
Delhomme: 173 yards 1 td = 11 ffp

Tier 5: very below average
Baltimore @ Washington
San Francisco vs Arizona
St. Louis @ Seattle
Atlanta vs Detroit
Washington vs Baltimore
Buffalo @ NY Jets

The Vick Experience: 194 yards, 1 int = 5 ffp
Boller: 83 yards, 3 ints = -3 ffp
Rattay: 417 yards, 2 tds = 24 ffp
Bulger: 325 yards, 3 tds 3 ints = 19 ffp
Brunell: 83 yards, 1 td 1 int = 5 ffp
Bledsoe: 197 yards, 2 tds 1 int = 9 ffp

Interestingly enough, had the Buffalo, San Fran and Seattle games ended about 5-6 mins sooner, Rattay, Bledsoe and Bulger's stats would fit right in here. Talk about last minute defensive collapses (or in Seattle's case, outright refusal to run the clock out by running when St. Louis had NO timeouts and only a the 2 minute warning left and Alexander averaging about 60 yards a carry at that point...odd... very odd... something about coaches named Mike... Sherman, Martz, Holmgren...)

Tier 6: Snowball's chance in hell
Cleveland @ Pitt
Miami @ New England

Garcia: 210 yards, 1 td = 12 ffp
Fiedler: 251 yards, 1 td 1 int = 12 ffp

Ended up better than the below average guys.

Rushing:

Tier 1: good to very good
Green Bay vs Tennessee
Indianapolis vs Oakland
NY Football Giants @ Dallas
Tennessee @ Green Bay
Atlanta vs Detroit

Edge: 136 yards, 1 td = 19 ffp
Tiki: 122 yards, 1 td = 18 ffp
Dunn: 53 yards, 1 td = 11 ffp

TDs for everyone. Looks good for Brown and Ahman tonight.

Tier 2: averagish
NY Jets vs Buffalo
Seattle vs St Louis
San Diego vs Jax
Tampa @ New Orleans
Oakland @ Indy
New England vs Miami
Houston vs Minnesota

Pittman: 51 yards = 5 ffp (pretty average day for him)
Zereoue: 41 yards = 4 ffp
Dillon: 91 yards = 9 ffp
DD: 31 yards, 1 TD = 10 (if this is average for him while he's injured, LOOK OUT)
C-Mart: 77 yards = 7 ffp
Alexander: 150 yards, 1 TD = 21 ffp
LT: 56 yards, 1 TD = 11 ffp

The only reason Alexander was here and not one category above is because the rushing game suffered while he wasn't healthy and it was still unclear if he was 100% or not. Otherwise that would've probably been a very good matchup.

Tier 3: below average
Pitt vs Cleveland
Denver vs Carolina
Arizona @ San Fran
Carolina @ Denver
Minnesota @ Houston
St. Louis @ Seattle

Staley: 117 yards, 1 td = 17 ffp
SOD Part II (Moore): 94 yards = 9 ffp
Droughns: 193 yards = 19 ffp
Emmitt: 63 yards, 1 TD = 12 ffp
Various Carolina bums rushed for 20 yards:
Faulk: 51 yards = 5 ffp
Jackson: 64 yards = 6 ffp

These all ended up pretty good. Interestingly, almost all of the matchups were bad rushing attacks against average/below average defenses. The rushing attacks win.

Tier 4: very below average
Buffalo @ NY Jets
Baltimore @ Washington
Dallas vs NY Football GIants
Washington vs Baltimore
Cleveland @ Pitt

Eddie: 75 yards (scary, all the dallas rbs ran well today)
Suggs: 30 yards = 3 ffp
Willie Green: 27 yards = 2 ffp
Henry: 33 yards = 3 ffp
McGahee: 42 yards = 4 ffp
Lewis: 116 yards = 11 ffp
Portis: 53 yards = 5 ffp

These matchups all came out very poor except for 2. No TDs in the bunch.

Tier 5: Snowball's chance in hell
San Fran vs Arizona
Jax @ San Diego
Miami @ New England
New Orleans vs Tampa
Detroit @ Atlanta

Forsey: 44 yards = 4 ffp
Deuuuuuuce: 102 yards = 10 ffp (this matchup was based primarily on the Saints rushing offense without Deuce)
Pinner: 69 yards, 1 td = 12 ffp
Taylor: 64 yards = 6 ffp
Barlow: 34 yards = 3 ffp

Nothing tremendously great here, although Deuce and Pinner had decent fantasy days.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

KG - STL @ SEA is a 4th tier passing matchup for STL???

I think that might be scewed by SEA's early season opponents. SEA is currently the top ranked D, but their resume includes TB and SF - arguably 2 of the worst offenses in the NFL.

I like what you have done and would be very interested in seeing your formula.

[KingGhidra]

*bump*

Meant to reply with the quotes, not edit it.

edit: deleted my comments too, blah

Observations about passing matchups...

Tier 1: Minny, Indy and Seattle are pretty obvious. Houston is above average passing going against piss poor defense, so I'd temper expectations slightly. I think the Jets good passing matchup and average rushing matchup (see below) favors passing TDs to Justin McCariens and Chris Baker in the red zone or possibly C-Mart or some unknown.

Tier 2: Yeah Oakland sucks with a QB like Collins. It's basically suck vs really really suck. I wouldn't be thrilled about starting Collins ever. Same goes for Tennessee (not that I don't like McNair).

Baker TD.

[KingGhidra]

*bump for updated info*

Arizona's defense will most likely be downgraded some after their performance against a bad offense, although it's possible the addition of Rattay for SFO helped them a lot. We'll know in a few more weeks I guess.

For week six, I'll break the categories down more.

Bad offense vs average/bad defense seems to favor the offense for rushing matchups (Droughns, Moore, Emmitt, Pittman, Staley) and not sure about passing matchups (Griese, Boller, McCown, Rattay, Collins).

Good offense vs good defense seems to favor the defense in passing (Brady, Testaverde, Bulger).

Good offense vs good defense didn't seemed to favor anyone for rushing. The younger backs had a better fantasy day though. (Faulk, C-Mart, Dunn, Tomlinson, Lewis). Dunn and LT both got TDs but had poor rushing days otherwise.

[KingGhidra]

Updated with more info...

My working theory so far was teams with good passing matchups and bad rushing matchups either kick more fieldgoals or have more passing TDs.

Here's how it breaks down.

Minnesota, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Houston, Detroit, NY Jets, Denver, Seattle & Dallas had the biggest disparity in passing vs rushing defensive matchups.

Minnesota: 5 TDs all passing. 3 for 20 yards or less.

Indianapolis: 5 TDs, 3 passing, 1 rushing, 1 defensive. 2 passing TDs of 20 yards or less.

Jacksonville: 3 TDs, 1 passing, 2 rushing (1 QB sneak). 1 passing TD of 20 yards or less.

New Orleans: 2 TDs, 2 passing. 2 passing TDs 20 yards or less. 1 FG with 30 yards or less left to the goal.

Houston: 4 TDs, 3 passing 1 rushing. 2 passing TDs of 20 yards or less (1 was 22 yards, heh).

Detroit: 2 TDs, 1 passing, 1 rushing. 1 FG within 30 yards or less to the goal.

NY Jets: 1 TD, 1 passing. 1 passing TD of 20 yards or less. 3 FGs with 30 yards or less left to the goal.

Denver: 2 TDs, 2 passing. 1 passing TD of 20 yards or less. 2 FGs with 30 yards or less left to the goal.

Seattle: 3 TDs, 2 passing, 1 rushing. 1 FG with 30 yards left to the goal. In hindsight, this would probably end up not in this category.

Dallas: 1 TD, 1 passing. 1 passing TD less than 20 yards. 1 FG with 30 yards or less left to the goal.

Other notes. Two of the three teams with slightly positive rushing matchups from this category (NYJ, IND, SEA) scored a rushing TD.

Only 8 teams had positive rushing matchups this weekend (SDG, NYJ, SEA, ATL, TEN, NYG, IND, GNB). All but one that played scored a rushing TD. GNB and TEN play tonight.

Of the 6 other teams that scored rushing TDs (DET, ARI, PIT, HOU, NWE, OAK), 5 had only slightly unfavorable rushing matchups. Detroit had the worst rushing matchup possible.

Okay okay... STL and JAX had rushing TDs also, but on QB sneaks.

So far so good.