rookie QB theory

[Pete123444]

i'm curious with all the wisdom here at the cafe, what is y'all thoughts on drafting qb's in round 1 (real NFL) and giving them millions, and giving them a clipboard for a year?

personally i think it's the dumbest thing i have ever seen.palmer last year made millions of bucks for nothing and now this year he has to learn the speed of the NFL. eli manning is getting paid millions this year and for what?

lets just say you sign a great rookie qb nowadays for 5 years,50 million. he sits out 1st year, adjusts during 2nd year,starts playing well in the 3rd.so you basically have him 2 1/2 years at a cost of 20 million per productive starting year? then after he learns the game, if he does well ( at your expense) you either have to sign him at a higher price or some other team gets him and never paid that 2 year learning curve price.

i say if you draft an eli manning and pay that amount of money,play him immediately.but my guess is that there is stats or wisdom behind the clipboard theory.

any ideas?

[BrutallyHuge]

If he gets really good, you can just franchise the crap outta him.

If he gets decent, he'll probably just re-sign. You don't see a lot of big name QBs just suddenly bolt for free agency because they know they'll just get franchised. It's smarter to just resign, take the signing bonus, and buy a few more Escalades.

I do agree that it sucks to draft a QB in the first round though. All that money for very little production in the first 2 years (if any in the first year).

[KingGhidra]

I made a long post about this on another message board sometime ago. To sum it up, it's stupid. In fact, I think having a top 10 pick kills your team in the long run, compared to the pre-salary cap era when having a top 10 pick was great for your team.

1) Drafting an offensive player, you probably don't know what you're getting for years unless it's a RB. Having three years worth of money tied up into a high priced player who doesn't perform was a waste of money. A good example of this is Joey Harrington. It's year three and Detroit still isn't sure what they have on their hands. A lot of money is invested in this #3 pick, and if he isn't any good, that hurts Detroit for years. His base salary escalates to a shade under $5 mil next year too.

2) I think there's better value in trading your draft pick down for more picks/players. It's better for the salary cap, and being able to stock up on late 1st rounders to 3rd round players gives you immediate depth which is good for special teams among other things.

3) There seems to be less of a learning curve for defensive players. You tend to see what you're getting right away. If you're going to draft players high, go with defense. One of the reasons I have Chicago better than Detroit over the long haul. Apparently Tommie Harris has been great for them so far and I've heard Tank Johnson is showing promise too (they did a good job against the Philly interior last Sunday).

4) Recent history shows going with an offensive lineman is your best bet if you draft an offensive player.