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Breaking down the Draft

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Breaking down the Draft

Postby NFLknowitall » Thu Jul 03, 2003 9:04 am

I highly recommend everyone doing this for their own league draft. I was just reading a thread by "Cliff Harris" (great name) about when to draft Shockey. Here is a formula that I read about two years ago and it is a good one. A lot of work, but worth it.

Take your overall players points list from last season, break it down by average player drafted in each round. Then by position and draft slot give an average points for those players. Now take an average of how many players are taken in each round and what their point totals are. Here is an example: In Round one there are QB=2, RB=6, WR=2, then do it for Round two were QB=2, RB= 5, WR=3.... etc. Of course you don't have any TE's or Defenses in the early rounds.

RD 1 RD 2 RD 3 RD 4 RD 5 RD 6
QB=307 QB=277 QB=232 QB=203 QB=160 QB=140
RB=121 RB=109 RB=92 RB=77 RB=66 RB=52
WR=98 WR=89 WR=82 WR=76 WR=69 WR=63
TE=None TE=76 TE=73 TE=63 TE=53 TE=50
DT=None DT=None DT=304 DT=253 DT=217 DT=190

Now that you have a avg. points system based on players taking in a certain round in your draft. It's time to figure out what draft order is best. Here's another example. The number after the position represents the "draft round".

WR1 (98) + TE2 (73) + WR3 (82) + QB4 (203) + DT5 (181) + RB6 (52) = 689

QB1 (307) + RB2 (109) + WR3 (82) + TE4 (53) + DT5 (181) + WR6 (63) = 795

WR1 (98) + WR2 (89) + TE3 (63) + DT4 (190) + QB5 (160) + RB6 (52) = 652

WR1 (98) + TE2 (73) + WR3 (82) + DT4 (190) + RB5 (55) + QB6 (140) = 638

RB1 (121) + DT2 (304) + TE3 (63) + WR4 (76) + WR5 (69) + QB6 (140) = 773

WR1 (98) + TE2 (73) + DT3 (253) + WR4 (76) + RB5 (55) + QB6 (140) = 695

WR1 (98) + QB2 (277) + TE3 (63) + WR4 (76) + RB5 (69) + DT6 (150) = 733

WR1 (98) + QB2 (277) + TE3 (63) + DT4 (190) + WR5 (69) RB6 (52) = 749

Remember this is just an example. The reason mine seems so messed up is that I have taken out players for my keeper league which is like taking out several rounds of a draft. Plus I have based the draft numbers by team needs in my league depending on who they have selected as their keepers and their team needs. My league points system is diffently different from yours, that is why you have to do it on your own. If you notice that Formula #2 gets you the most points, but that is already having your 3 keepers at prime positions. Like a RB and 2 WR's then #2 could work well. It makes it a lot more complicated with the keepers. But it gives you an idea of how to work the formula.
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Postby Arlo » Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:07 am

Interesting! ;-D

Just one question: how do you tweak this system when the average value at a position increases from one round to the next? In any given league, you'll wind up with both minor variations (such as round 6 WRs winding up being worth more than those drafted in round 5) and large aberrations (such as Clinton Portis raising round 18's RB average to that of round 2).

Any ideas on how to take that into account when not just analyzing past drafts, but planning for the future?
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