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Postby UNDEFEATED » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:44 am

joester wrote:All that being said........Would you rather have Holt instead of Chad Johnson right now?

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Oct 08, 2004 1:11 pm

IRON CHEF wrote:I'm slowly starting to change my opinins about Holt. At first I believed he was the man, Bulger loved throwing to Torry, and a shift of Holt to the primary receiving threat took place.

But, this year Bulger has shown a lot of poise. I think he has matured, and he is learning to deliver the ball in the right places. I think when Holt is being blanketed Bulger has learned not to force the ball to him.

Time will tell whether I am right, but its lookin like Bulger isn't going to favor Holt as much as he has in the past.

So far my predictions for Holt have been off too - and I feel its because I didnt factor in Bulger's learning curve.

I do still think Holt will finish with better numbers than Bruce, but clearly we are seeing a QB who has matured and is trying to force the ball less than he did last yr.

And yes I think Holt is a buy low candidate right now.
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Postby Kensat30 » Fri Oct 08, 2004 6:46 pm

I think this is similar to the situation in Indy, where a lot of people are questioning the Marvin and praising Wayne.

I think it's pretty clear to most people that Holt and Harrison are the more talented WRs on their respective teams. Their roles are nearly the exact opposite, but the outcomes are the same. The less talented WR on their team is putting up better numbers through 4 weeks. Wayne has outproduced Harrison and Bruce has outproduced Holt.

Doubled guy: Harrison=Holt
Single coverage: Bruce=Wayne

Both Harrison and Holt are not exactly getting shut down right now, but at the same time it's hard to watch a WR from the same team outperforming them. And that's the key to why Harrison and Holt are HUGE buy lows right now. Look where Holt and Harrison are ranked compared to other top WRs right now. Then look at where Reggie Wayne and Isaac Bruce are ranked.


#8 Torry Holt (25rec/32target, 310 yds, 2 TDs)
Receptions- 8th ranked WR
Yardage- 10th ranked WR
Targets- 19th ranked WR

#5 Isaac Bruce (32rec/47target,448 yds, 1 TD)
Receptions- 1st ranked WR
Yardage- 1st ranked WR
Targets- 2nd ranked WR
14.0 ypc

Do you really believe Issac Bruce can keep that up for an entire season? He's the NFL LEADER in receptions and yardage after 4 weeks... Meanwhile, Torry Holt is quietly putting up top 10 numbers with a lot less opportunity. I suppose Isaac and Torry could have reversed roles in the offseason, and Bruce could bust off for 1800 yards while Holt plays second fiddle for 1200 yards...... Did someone go into a time machine and bring back the Isaac Bruce from 1995? I expect Bruce to actually be challenged in at least a COUPLE weeks this year and then Holt will have increased opportunity.


#10 Marvin Harrison (26rec/41target, 252 yds, 3 TDs)
Receptions- 6th ranked WR
Yardage- 25th ranked WR
Targets- 3rd ranked WR
9.7 ypc

#12 Reggie Wayne (21rec/33target, 365 yds, 2 TD)
Receptions- 14th ranked WR
Yardage- 4th ranked WR
Targets- 16th ranked WR

The outliers in these statistics are staggering. All the naysayers of Marvin and the supporters of Wayne look at the ypc numbers in this situation. Wayne is getting a lot of deep looks and Harrison is relegated to the shorter routes. Many people see that as a positive for Wayne and a negative for Harrison. I'm aware of this situation, but I don't buy into it.

Just look at the overall rankings. Harrison is still in the top10 fantasy performers with a freaking 9.7 ypc average. Even Rod Smith, the ultimate possession WR, had well over 11 ypc in his worst and most injured plagued season, and Marvin is almost 2 yards below that average. I'm thinking it's only going to take 1 or 2 nice games to right Harrison's ship.

Reggie Wayne is in the exact opposite situation. He's putting up a very good ypc number on less throws. Maybe this contributes to why Harrison is the consistent performer and Wayne is the boom or bust player. The law of averages will win this battle before week 10. Look for Harrison to move up in the rankings, while Wayne battles to stay where he is.
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