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"NEVER PICK A QB EARLY"

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"NEVER PICK A QB EARLY"

Postby metra » Sun Oct 10, 2004 3:03 pm

Culpepper and Manning are doing awesome. If you knew that Cpepp would have 4 consecutive games of about 300yds/4TD's, would you pick him late 1st round/early 2nd? Or would you pick him later, as the title suggests?
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Postby Posse » Sun Oct 10, 2004 3:07 pm

Carr is doing pretty good today :) I started him in my money league, which I had first pick and took Holmes. :)

So I would say still take a RB first.
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Postby metra » Sun Oct 10, 2004 3:27 pm

But if youre either 8-12, why not pick Culpepper first and a Barlow/Rudi/Domanick (assuming you didnt know they would semi-bust) in the second round?
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Postby TheRock » Sun Oct 10, 2004 4:01 pm

I had the #12 pick and went Culpepper/Barlow. Only regret is that I didn't go Culpepper/Owens and pick up Chris Brown in the 3rd.

I'm of the theory that once you pass the upper tier of RB's, you run into some question marks. Guys like DD, Barlow, Henry, Dillon, Taylor. Might be studs, might be duds. Better I say to get the guaranteed top performer like an elite WR or top QB instead of 2 questionable RBs. Seems to have worked for me so far anyway.
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Postby KingGhidra » Sun Oct 10, 2004 4:05 pm

Obviously not. If I had 100% forecasting ability, I wouldn't take Culpepper in the first, I'd take the best RB who was available or Moss and take Brooks, Plummer, Brady, etc who I knew would finish in the top 10 and only cost me a 7th round pick.
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Postby ConTender » Sun Oct 10, 2004 5:04 pm

I drafted Davis Carr in the 12th round. Turning out to be a steal.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Sun Oct 10, 2004 6:14 pm

KingGhidra wrote:Obviously not. If I had 100% forecasting ability, I wouldn't take Culpepper in the first, I'd take the best RB who was available or Moss and take Brooks, Plummer, Brady, etc who I knew would finish in the top 10 and only cost me a 7th round pick.
I wish that would work. I am losing to one of the worst teams in the league. He started Johnathan Wells and TJ Duckett. 0 points, RB. Guess what? He spent his first 3 picks on Culpepper, Moss, and Santana Moss. And CPep and Moss combined for 69 out of his 85 points. My team has been a monster bust so far, Coles, Taylor and such, and I'll probably be 1-4.
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Postby Greenback » Sun Oct 10, 2004 6:19 pm

I took Culpepper with the #6 pick in a very competitive, 10 team league and couldn't be happier. Would do it again in a heartbeat. Would have done the same with Manning.

I'm 3-1 coming into this week and looks like I will be 4-1 after this week.

You do NOT need to draft a stud RB with your #1 pick to be successful.....though CPepp and Manning are the only two QB's worth a 1st round pick.
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Postby metra » Sun Oct 10, 2004 6:51 pm

KingGhidra wrote:Obviously not. If I had 100% forecasting ability, I wouldn't take Culpepper in the first, I'd take the best RB who was available or Moss and take Brooks, Plummer, Brady, etc who I knew would finish in the top 10 and only cost me a 7th round pick.


But the reality is that although all QB's do rack up mucho pts, Cpepp/Manning just get so much more that it is worth to get them early.

Just because RB's have a steep downward slope of point production doesnt mean you have to get two right away. QB's have a steep slope starting at Cpepp/Manning and then plateaus out at all the other QB's who get roughly equal pts.

If I were picking 10th on, I wouldnt hesitate to get Cpepp. He would literally carry my team.
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Postby RC » Sun Oct 10, 2004 7:49 pm

I've been throwing the same exact question around in my head for the past couple of weeks.

Another point in the RB v. QB debate is to consider how many good plays at RB have resulted from injuries (Stecker, Pinner, Droughns, Moore, Pittman, etc).

Not nearly that many options have exixted at QB over the last two seasons.

I'm not saying I'd take C-Pep before the 7th or 8th pick, but I'm thinking that a team with C-Pep, Staley and Chris Brown sounds pretty good thus far in the season.

Regardless, in the two pools I drafted, I had the 1st pick (Priest) and the 3rd pick (LT2, Green went 2nd!?!). Not sure I'd change anything there.
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