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"NEVER PICK A QB EARLY"

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Postby Dirtbags » Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:40 pm

I took Culpepper and TO with the 12th and 13th picks. I got lucky at the end of the 3rd round with T.Jones.

After the top 8 backs are off the board then it's time to look at Moss, Harrison, TO, Culpepper or Manning.

I was hoping one of the top 8 RB's fell to me. I'd then pair him up with one of the big three WR but he didn't so I jumped on Culpepper.
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Postby Plindsey88 » Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:46 pm

minnystud04 wrote:In a 10 team league, I had the 10th & 11th picks, and went with the Manning/Edge combo. Now I get touchdowns for (almost) every Colts TD, which is about 5 per game. I think it is fine to draft a QB early as long as you have a plan and can draft well later on down the road. I haven't made any major trades, and you can see why I am 4-1!

QB- Manning
RB- Edge, Westbrook, Foster, K Jones, Rhodes, Bettis, Pittman, Zeroeue
WR- A. Johnson, J. Horn, Toomer
Te- Gates, Witten
K- Elam
D- NE


Well, I've got the Manning/Edge combo, too.... And, while I have loved it thus far... I am still about to be 3-2 (pending tonight's game), and next week I'm going to be hurting right along with you, as it looks like I will have to start Carr, Taylor, and Suggs, and you'll be starting X-Y-Z waiver QB, Westbrook and Pittman...

You did better than me with your WR's, though... I've got the two most targetted receivers in the league (Bruce and Coles), and Jimmy Smith as my #3, but none of them are putting up TD's... And it also looks like you edged me out at TE... I have McMichael...

I am playing kicker and defense by committee, which is working out well....


All in all, I'd say the Edge/Manning combo thing is working out great, but I'm still running middle of the pack in my league right now...
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Postby metra » Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:54 pm

I picked Edge(9)/Cpepp(12) and i'm about to be 5-0. My leagues pretty competitive, but i guess it might not be as some of yours.
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:55 pm

Dirtbags wrote:I took Culpepper and TO with the 12th and 13th picks. I got lucky at the end of the 3rd round with T.Jones.

After the top 8 backs are off the board then it's time to look at Moss, Harrison, TO, Culpepper or Manning.

I was hoping one of the top 8 RB's fell to me. I'd then pair him up with one of the big three WR but he didn't so I jumped on Culpepper.


That's more or less my draft theory too. I grabbed J Lew and Alexander with the 7th and 10th picks... ;-D
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Postby deluxe_247 » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:07 pm

c-pep and manning are the only qbs worth taking that early, and i wouldnt hesitate taking either one of them, if the top 5 or so rbs were gone already

qbs- aaron brooks, jake delhomme, carson palmer
rbs- shaun alexander, jamal lewis, curtis martin, chester taylor
wrs- torry holt, hines ward, issac bruce, brandon stokely
te- alge crumpler
k- matt stover
def- ravens
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:24 pm

deluxe_247 wrote:c-pep and manning are the only qbs worth taking that early, and i wouldnt hesitate taking either one of them, if the top 5 or so rbs were gone already

qbs- aaron brooks, jake delhomme, carson palmer
rbs- shaun alexander, jamal lewis, curtis martin, chester taylor
wrs- torry holt, hines ward, issac bruce, brandon stokely
te- alge crumpler
k- matt stover
def- ravens


I don't know about this week, but last week, Donny Mac was number 1 overall in yahoo! startard scoring... I believe its standard anyways. Usually, #1 is worth drafting high. He does have a past of inconsistancy though... but if he keeps it up with TO, I'll draft him low round 1, high round 2, if he's available.
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Postby Azrael » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:26 pm

My general rule of thumb had been to not take any QBs earlier than the 6th or 7th round because there was so much more value at QB later. This still exists in TD heavy leagues.
My one money league is as such. My one money league which is very TD heavy (with nominal point bonuses for yardage over a certain threshold). I did not draft a QB until like the 10th or 11th round where I ended up with Palmer and Leftwich. Including this week, my team is the only undefeated team left in the league at 5-0. So I'm pretty comfortable with my analysis of that type of league.

However, my strategy changed someone in standard leagues or leagues that reward heavier for yardage than TDs. The reason being, I thought there was 1 QB that was going to exceed any level of scoring of any other QB by a formidable margin, Daunte Culpepper. I came to this conclusion taking into account the leaps and strides they made from 2002 to 2003 as an offense, watching the starters in this year's pre-season games, looking at their schedule, and assuming that the defense would be average if lucky just like last year. I also noted that Culpepper was the only QB last year to avg 20pts per game all year and thought the offense just got even better. His 3 or 4 extra pts he gets you on average rushing is huge and he still throws for more yards and TDs than most starting QBs. I was indecisive about McNabb and thought Manning may be streaky again this year so I decided if I didn't get Culpepper I would pass on those 2 as well and take my chances with the Favres, Greens, and Brooks in the later rounds.

I also thought that there would be more opportunities to get good RBs later in the draft with RBBCs breaking up, cheat sheets overrating "established or proven (as you'll hear alot around here)" running backs (in my estimation) such as S. Davis, Henry, Faulk, and Taylor, teams finding some new feature backs. I thought this could possibly justify me taking Culpepper as early as the 2nd round. I drafted 9th out of 10. I suckered the top picker into trading me his 2nd and 3rd round picks for mine because I didn't like the value at picking with the 12th pick. I was targeting C. Brown and Culpepper as my 2nd and 3rd round picks but wasn't confident that either would be there at 3.9.

Anyways, turns out I nailed it pretty well considering that Culpepper has scored 31, 29, 21, and 38 pts in the 1st 4 games. I think he'll exceed Manning in both yards and TDs when it is all said and done. Consider how close he is to Manning in both categories and Manning has not had his bye week yet. While I don't think he will throw 5 TDs every 2 out of 4 games. I think he will easily throw over 40 TDs this year.
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