How is it that stud RBs like Lewis, Portis, Taylor, Henry, Faulk, Rudi and SDavis are all coming out of the gate flatter than pancakes? Out of these "studs" which one do you see turning their situation around?
Here's my thesis for fantasy problems at beginning of this year...This is a bad, bad, year for people to start learning how to play in fantasy and equally bad for those who know what they are doing. Why do I say this?
1. All the superstar QB's (Culpepper, Manning, and McNabb this year) are putting up humongous numbers. So, those people who have never played before or figure "superstar QB = 1st round pick" are reaping the benefits of their "stupidity." Last year, Manning only had 8 "quality" games and 8 "bust" games. So far this year, I don't think Manning has scored less than 25 points! These players who normally have one good game and one bad game just keep producing and carrying teams to a win over a more balanced team that takes QB's later.
2. Combined with point 1, there are too many stud and #2 RB's getting injured or not performing as many "experts" predicted. Sure, this happens every year, but it seems like this year it is even more pronounced. These players the "seasoned" fantasy player is taking first instead of the QB's aren't keeping up with the crazy scoring and TD pace of the QB's. So, when they break down, a team's main source of scoring goes down with it. Plus, with many pre-season #2 backs underperforming (Dillon, Henry, Barlow, Rudi, etc.), the teams have no way of getting much from either of their RB spots. Meanwhile, people who drafted QB's early and took RB's late got the guys like Barber, Martin, Staley, and Dunn who are presently tearing up the fantasy world. Not a good thing for the balanced RB oriented fantasy team!
So, what does this all mean for us experienced players in the future (I hope)? Next year, people who began playing in fantasy this year will get this false sense of hope in QB's, and they will once again pick them first. They may not be able to produce the same as last year, and they will end up suffering for it. At the same time, if the stud RBs stay intact and those who are predicted to do well in the other categories do well, the more experienced players will shine through.
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Very interesting theory. But you are overlooking the possibility that those of us who have done this for years may want to adjust our strategy next year. Besides Priest and LT at draft position #1 and #2, I would now take a premier QB in the first round (hindsight is 20/20). Will "stupid" teams do the same thing again next year, and draft a QB in the first ? Probably. Will they then beat our brains in again if those top 3 qb's rock ? Definitely. I, for one, will take culpepper at any position next year, unless I have a shot at Priest or LT. Good post, interesting ideas.
Every other year I would say no. But looking at the way these guys are playing, I have to say yes. Manning is getting better, and he is not reliant on just Marv anymore. Same with Culpepper, he has 3 WR weapons now. If anyone was going to decline, I would vote Mcnabb. But as long as TO is healthy he should be a close third. Wish I had drafted one of these guys.
actually, some of the FF vets I know drafted QBs high this year. I thought they were "rockin' the Ricky", but it seems I was most mistaken. In my 8-team league, one owners first 2 picks were Manning and Culpepper... try that one on for size.
The theory had always been that you don't need a stud QB to win it all and that may be true, but this year where so many 1st and 2nd rounders are underachieving, having one of the big 3 is only going to help you.
While I would never think to draft Manning AND Culpepper 1 and 2 (unless I started 2 QBs), some of those guys are probably getting pretty hefty offers for one of them. I can't wait to see what comes my way this week (I have Culpepper).
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by mad benjamin » Sun Oct 10, 2004 10:06 pm 
