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Keeper Strategy--Play for Now or the Future?

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Keeper Strategy--Play for Now or the Future?

Postby Transmogrifier » Wed Jul 16, 2003 9:09 am

When in a keeper league, what's the best way to play it? Pick the players that will most help you next year, or those you can keep for years to come?

For example, I'm keeping Portis as one keeper in my 10 team league. For my other, I think keeping Ahman Green will give me the best chance to repeat as league champion. But, McNabb is another option, but I feel keeping him might hamstring me next year, but is the better long-term option.

Which direction do most people go? (How do you balance the "keeper" nature of the league with the need to win?)
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Postby ScreamingWeasel » Wed Jul 16, 2003 9:49 am

There's an old saying: "Study long. Study wrong" meaning, of course, that when you study over something for so long, you usually will talk yourself into something, and make a bad decision.

I know a LOT of guys that wind up doing this. Trying to figure who, what rookie, will be "the-next-big-thing".

Personally, I find this risky as hell. Maybe even be impossible.

Me? I thought Vaughn Dunbar RB NO was "the-next-big-thing".
Rocket Ismail? Joey Galloway? Yep.
Eddie Kinneson. Michael Westbrook Uh huh.
Jon Kitna? "The-next-big-thing".

You get the idea.

Play for right now.
Let some other sucker hold "the-next-big-thing" for a couple of years, waiting for the "break out" season that never come.

My 2 cents, anyway.
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Postby brdmaverick » Wed Jul 16, 2003 9:53 am

hello Transmogrifier, I see you are still having second thoughts about this decision.

Well, first of all, at least you can consider yourself very lucky in that with Clinton Portis, you satisfy both needs (long term and this year). Some people won't even have that.

Well, in your case, where you guys keep two players, I would keep the guys that give me the better chance to win THIS year.

Why is that? Well, every year in football guys emerge from mediocrity or even from nowhere to become stars. The big names in the game are always changing. I don't know how long your keeper league has been going on, but think about it this way. With only two keepers being kept from year to year, I predict a fairly high change in keepers from year to year.

For instance, last year I doubt Deuce McAllister, Michael Vick, and Clinton Portis were keepers, and yet they have become great keeper options for this year. My point is that more guys will emerge this year that will be considered keepers for next season, and they are still available in your draft. Usually it is the younger guys with upside, like Willie Green, TJ Duckett, or Trung Candidate.

So no matter who you pick as your keeper for this season, you might even want that person on your team the next year, instead you might keep Portis and Duckett (or something like that).

In a league where lots of guys are being kept, I look to the future, but in leagues where few are kept, I am almost always looking at the right now aspect.

Even with all that being said, I know you have a tough decision to make, I wouldn't want to have to choose between Ahman Green and Donovan McNabb.

I would still take Green though, and go all out in your defense of the title.
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Postby hwaterboys » Wed Jul 16, 2003 9:55 am

Always play for NOW because you never know what will happen in the future. Players change teams, retire, get hurt etc. You have alot of information on players for this season and little for upcoming seasons. Do what it takes to win now, then when next year comes around you do what it takes to win next year
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Postby awwchrist » Wed Jul 16, 2003 9:57 am

Chances are your league won't last long enough to see Year 7 anyhow. Play for now.
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Postby kashikis » Wed Jul 16, 2003 10:26 am

90% of the time you draft for now unless you are in a true Dynasty league.

as for your particular situation id say keep McNabb over Green. Green is gimpy from last year and McNabb has healed just fine. plus i think both will give you similar production this year but i have McNabb listed in the top 10 keepers and ahman isnt.

so when you have 2 guys of equal value then give the edge to the better keeper which in this case in McNabb. remember he was the highest pt producer last year until he got hurt so he has huge potential for next year and a bunch to come.
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Postby slowkidz » Wed Jul 16, 2003 12:34 pm

kashikis wrote:90% of the time you draft for now unless you are in a true Dynasty league.

as for your particular situation id say keep McNabb over Green. Green is gimpy from last year and McNabb has healed just fine. plus i think both will give you similar production this year but i have McNabb listed in the top 10 keepers and ahman isnt.

so when you have 2 guys of equal value then give the edge to the better keeper which in this case in McNabb. remember he was the highest pt producer last year until he got hurt so he has huge potential for next year and a bunch to come.


i couldn't have said it better. i would love to have McNabb and Portis as keepers! ;-D
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Postby Dazedncnfz » Wed Jul 16, 2003 12:40 pm

Slowkidz wrote:i would love to have McNabb and Portis as keepers! ;-D


and you would love to the see the brownies win the title...but that isn't happening either!...lmao!!!

btw...I agree with McNabb over Green also.....
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Postby Slingblade » Wed Jul 16, 2003 1:00 pm

yeah usually they dont last that long because of crappy teams drop out...i usually draft young studs like pennington or LT
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Postby Transmogrifier » Wed Jul 16, 2003 9:39 pm

Thanks all for the tips. I guess I really can't lose either way. I'll see how Green's injuries are doing come draft time before I make the final decision.
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