Fantasy Football Cafe

Strength of Schedule

Most strength of remaining schedule calculations suffer from two flaws:

1. Although strength of schedule charts are based on the assumption that not all wins are equal, the data used to assess the opponents' strength is based on those same raw winning percentages.

2. Due to injuries and other short-term events, the strength of teams can fluctuate over an NFL season, so past statistics don't always give an accurate picture of the true difficulty of the matchups ahead.

To alleviate those flaws, the Cafe has come up with a different method to assess Strength of Schedule:

1. When calculating the winning percentage of future opponents, the strength of their past schedule is part of the equation. Hence, a team with a 7-3 record that had an easy schedule so far will be considered a weaker opponent than a team with a 7-3 record that has beaten teams which themselves have a high winning percentage. Although the actual data is still based on winning percentages, the deeper algorithm should provide for more accurate results.

2. To accomodate short-term changes in team strength, the Cafe's Strength of Schedule chart also uses the data provided by Cafe experts who rank the current team strength each and every week in what is known as the Cafe's NFL Barometer.

Ultimately, these two figures are merged to create the Cafe's Strength of Schedule rankings. Enjoy!

TEAMClass W%Cafe W%Enh W%Bar W%
Arizona (9-8)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Atlanta (5-10)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Baltimore (6-10)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Buffalo (6-10)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Carolina (9-7)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Chicago (9-7)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Cincinnati (12-4)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Cleveland (8-8)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Dallas (9-7)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Denver (10-6)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Detroit (8-8)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Green Bay (9-7)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Houston (7-8)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Indianapolis (10-5)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Jacksonville (4-12)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Kansas City (12-4)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Miami (6-9)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Minnesota (5-10)0.0000.0000.0000.000
NY Giants (0-0)0.0000.0000.0000.000
NY Jets (0-0)0.0000.0000.0000.000
New England (9-7)0.0000.0000.0000.000
New Orleans (10-5)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Oakland (5-10)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Philadelphia (7-9)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Pittsburgh (5-10)0.0000.0000.0000.000
San Diego (9-5)0.0000.0000.0000.000
San Francisco (11-5)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Seattle (11-5)0.0000.0000.0000.000
St. Louis (5-11)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Tampa Bay (4-11)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Tennessee (8-7)0.0000.0000.0000.000
Washington (7-8)0.0000.0000.0000.000

Class W% = Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents (classical version)
Cafe W% = Average between Enh W% and Bar W%
Enh W% = Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents, where strength of schedule is calculated two levels deep (enhanced version)
Bar W% = Simulated winning percentage based on the Cafe's weekly NFL Barometer (posted in the Cafe's Rankings section)

The Cafe's Strength of Schedule is automatically updated as new game results come in or a fresh NFL Barometer is posted.

Questions or comments? Post them in the Cafe Forums!

Want to see your own fantasy wisdom published? Check out the Cafe's Pencil & Paper section!

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