Week 16

Congratulations to all of you in your fantasy championship games this week! Most leagues hold their Superbowls this week, some will have theirs next week. Either way, this week is an important week in all leagues. Studs like Chris Johnson, Lendale White, Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Terrell Owens, and even Deangelo Williams draw unfavorable matchups this week. If Drew Brees got you to the big game, you are probably salivating over his matchup with the Lions right now. Best of luck to all the teams still vying for a title! Below are this week’s rankings. As more rankings come in, the numbers, order, and rank will change… so keep checking back throughout the week.

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

Quarterbacks	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Drew Brees	NO	at DET	19.67	100%	19.67
Peyton Manning	IND	at JAX	18.67	100%	18.67
Kurt Warner	ARI	at NE	17.33	100%	17.33
Jay Cutler	DEN	BUF	17.00	100%	17.00
Brett Favre	NYJ	at SEA	16.33	100%	16.33
Matt Cassel	NE	ARI	16.33	100%	16.33
Aaron Rodgers	GB	CHI	16.00	100%	16.00
Chad Pennington	MIA	KC	16.00	98%	15.68
Shaun Hill	SF	at STL	16.00	96%	15.36
Donovan McNabb	PHI	at WAS	15.33	100%	15.33
Tyler Thigpen	KC	MIA	15.33	100%	15.33
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	at TEN	15.00	100%	15.00
Tony Romo	DAL	BAL	15.00	100%	15.00
Matt Ryan	ATL	at MIN	15.00	100%	15.00
Eli Manning	NYG	CAR	15.00	100%	15.00
Jason Campbell	WAS	PHI	13.33	100%	13.33
Jake Delhomme	CAR	at NYG	13.33	100%	13.33
Joe Flacco	BAL	at DAL	12.67	100%	12.67
Kyle Orton	CHI	GB	12.67	100%	12.67
Kerry Collins	TEN	PIT	12.33	100%	12.33
Dan Orlovsky	DET	NO	12.33	100%	12.33
David Garrard	JAX	IND	12.00	100%	12.00
Brian Griese	TB	SD	14.33	83%	11.94
Jeff Garcia	TB	SD	14.33	80%	11.47
Matt Schaub	HOU	at OAK	12.33	90%	11.10
Sage Rosenfels	HOU	at OAK	14.33	77%	10.99
Trent Edwards	BUF	at DEN	13.33	80%	10.67
JaMarcus Russell	OAK	HOU	10.33	100%	10.33
Marc Bulger	STL	SF	9.67	100%	9.67
Ryan Fitzpatrick	CIN	at CLE	11.67	82%	9.57
Philip Rivers	SD	at TB	11.67	80%	9.33
JP Losman	BUF	at DEN	10.00	90%	9.00
Tarvaris Jackson	MIN	ATL	8.67	93%	8.09
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	NYJ	13.67	50%	6.83
Ken Dorsey	CLE	CIN	5.67	100%	5.67
Daunte Culpepper	DET	NO	8.00	53%	4.27

Start: Matt Cassel, New England Patriots (Rank: 16.33) - If Tarvaris Jackson can throw for 4 touchdowns against the Cardinals, imagine what Cassel, Welker, and Moss will do. Cassel has thrown 11 of his 18 touchdown passes in the last 5 weeks and the only game he failed to do so was against the league’s number one defense, the Steelers. He has been a solid performer as of late and should be in your lineup this week.

Sit: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars (Rank: 12.00) - The Colts are number one in the league against fantasy quarterbacks. Garrard has thrown a touchdown pass in 4 straight games, however the Colts have only allowed 5 touchdown passes this season. Garrard has also thrown 5 interceptions in as many weeks. Don’t look to him for that fantasy championship victory.

Running Backs	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Adrian Peterson	MIN	ATL	20.00	100%	20.00
Thomas Jones	NYJ	at SEA	18.33	100%	18.33
Steve Slaton	HOU	at OAK	17.67	100%	17.67
Michael Turner	ATL	at MIN	17.33	100%	17.33
Ronnie Brown	MIA	KC	17.00	100%	17.00
Matt Forte	CHI	GB	17.00	100%	17.00
Steven Jackson	STL	SF	16.67	100%	16.67
Brian Westbrook	PHI	at WAS	16.33	100%	16.33
Pierre Thomas	NO	at DET	16.33	100%	16.33
Marshawn Lynch	BUF	at DEN	16.00	100%	16.00
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	at TB	15.67	100%	15.67
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	at NYG	15.67	100%	15.67
Chris Johnson	TEN	PIT	15.33	100%	15.33
Dominic Rhodes	IND	at JAX	15.00	100%	15.00
Larry Johnson	KC	MIA	15.00	100%	15.00
Sammy Morris	NE	ARI	15.00	100%	15.00
Justin Fargas	OAK	HOU	14.67	100%	14.67
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	IND	14.67	100%	14.67
LeRon McClain	BAL	at DAL	14.33	100%	14.33
Jamal Lewis	CLE	CIN	14.33	100%	14.33
Warrick Dunn	TB	SD	14.33	100%	14.33
Ryan Grant	GB	CHI	14.33	100%	14.33
Leon Washington	NYJ	at SEA	14.00	100%	14.00
Derrick Ward	NYG	CAR	14.00	100%	14.00
Kevin Smith	DET	NO	14.00	100%	14.00
Chester Taylor	MIN	ATL	13.67	100%	13.67
LenDale White	TEN	PIT	13.67	100%	13.67
Ricky Williams	MIA	KC	13.67	100%	13.67
Kevin Faulk	NE	ARI	13.67	100%	13.67
Clinton Portis	WAS	PHI	14.33	93%	13.38
Tatum Bell	DEN	BUF	13.33	100%	13.33
Darren McFadden	OAK	HOU	13.00	100%	13.00
Joseph Addai	IND	at JAX	16.00	80%	12.80
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	CAR	16.00	80%	12.80
Marion Barber	DAL	BAL	14.67	87%	12.71
Tim Hightower	ARI	at NE	12.67	100%	12.67
Frank Gore	SF	at STL	17.67	70%	12.37
Cedric Benson	CIN	at CLE	12.33	100%	12.33
Reggie Bush	NO	at DET	14.67	83%	12.22
DeShaun Foster	SF	at STL	12.00	100%	12.00
Jerious Norwood	ATL	at MIN	12.00	100%	12.00
Jonathan Stewart	CAR	at NYG	11.67	100%	11.67
Mewelde Moore	PIT	at TEN	11.67	97%	11.28
Willie Parker	PIT	at TEN	12.33	90%	11.10
Willis McGahee	BAL	at DAL	11.67	93%	10.89
Selvin Young	DEN	BUF	10.67	100%	10.67
Brandon Jackson	GB	CHI	10.33	100%	10.33
Julius Jones	SEA	NYJ	9.33	97%	9.02
Tashard Choice	DAL	BAL	9.00	100%	9.00
Correll Buckhalter	PHI	at WAS	9.00	100%	9.00
Ray Rice	BAL	at DAL	9.67	87%	8.38
Fred Jackson	BUF	at DEN	8.33	100%	8.33
Benjarvis Green-Ellis	NE	ARI	8.33	97%	8.06
Antonio Pittman	STL	SF	8.00	100%	8.00
Ladell Betts	WAS	PHI	7.67	100%	7.67
Jamaal Charles	KC	MIA	7.67	100%	7.67
Ken Darby	STL	SF	7.33	100%	7.33
Darren Sproles	SD	at TB	7.00	100%	7.00
Michael Bush	OAK	HOU	7.00	100%	7.00
JJ Arrington	ARI	at NE	8.67	57%	4.91
Deuce McAllister	NO	at DET	6.00	73%	4.40

Start: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins (Rank: 17.00) - This is an easy one. The Chiefs have allowed nearly 2700 combined yards and 23 combined touchdowns to running backs. Even though Ronnie splits carries, there should be plenty of touches to go around and Ronnie does get the majority. Look for a decent day from Brown this week.

Start: Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints (Rank: 16.33) - It’s a special week so you get two players to start here. Pierre Thomas is now without Reggie Bush taking carries and plays the woeful Lions. Be aware that the Saints are only 1-6 on the road. Thomas should see enough touches both running the ball and catching out of the backfield to be started in all leagues, especially PPR.

Sit: Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys (Rank: 12.71) - This guy is probably a huge reason why you are where you are. This week he faces the number 1 defense against fantasy running backs and he’s not healthy. He’ll probably get touches, but with how well Choice has been playing, he might lose some and might not even get the majority. With him not at full health and not knowing the split against a top run defense, he’s too risky for such an important week if you have better options.

Wide Receivers	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Randy Moss	NE	ARI	19.00	100%	19.00
Roddy White	ATL	at MIN	18.67	100%	18.67
Andre Johnson	HOU	at OAK	18.33	100%	18.33
Anquan Boldin	ARI	at NE	18.33	100%	18.33
Brandon Marshall	DEN	BUF	18.00	100%	18.00
Greg Jennings	GB	CHI	18.00	100%	18.00
Reggie Wayne	IND	at JAX	18.00	100%	18.00
Marques Colston	NO	at DET	17.67	100%	17.67
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	at NE	17.67	100%	17.67
Lee Evans	BUF	at DEN	16.67	100%	16.67
Steve Smith	CAR	at NYG	16.67	100%	16.67
Eddie Royal	DEN	BUF	16.67	100%	16.67
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	at CLE	16.33	100%	16.33
Calvin Johnson	DET	NO	16.33	100%	16.33
Terrell Owens	DAL	BAL	16.00	100%	16.00
Antonio Bryant	TB	SD	16.00	100%	16.00
Hines Ward	PIT	at TEN	15.67	100%	15.67
Bernard Berrian	MIN	ATL	15.67	100%	15.67
Braylon Edwards	CLE	CIN	15.67	100%	15.67
Derrick Mason	BAL	at DAL	15.67	100%	15.67
Wes Welker	NE	ARI	15.33	100%	15.33
Donnie Avery	STL	SF	15.33	100%	15.33
Dwayne Bowe	KC	MIA	15.00	100%	15.00
Amani Toomer	NYG	CAR	15.00	100%	15.00
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	at SEA	15.00	100%	15.00
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	at SEA	14.67	100%	14.67
Isaac Bruce	SF	at STL	14.67	100%	14.67
DeSean Jackson	PHI	at WAS	14.67	100%	14.67
Michael Clayton	BAL	at DAL	14.33	100%	14.33
Kevin Walter	HOU	at OAK	14.33	100%	14.33
Lance Moore	NO	at DET	14.00	100%	14.00
Harry Douglas	ATL	at MIN	13.67	100%	13.67
Steve Smith	NYG	CAR	13.67	100%	13.67
Santonio Holmes	PIT	at TEN	13.67	100%	13.67
Santana Moss	WAS	PHI	13.67	100%	13.67
Deion Branch	SEA	NYJ	13.33	100%	13.33
Bobby Engram	SEA	NYJ	13.33	100%	13.33
Steve Breaston	ARI	at NE	13.33	100%	13.33
Kevin Curtis	PHI	at WAS	13.33	100%	13.33
Donald Driver	GB	CHI	13.33	100%	13.33
Dominick Hixon	NYG	CAR	13.00	100%	13.00
Mark Bradley	KC	MIA	13.00	100%	13.00
Davone Bess	MIA	KC	12.67	100%	12.67
Michael Jenkins	ATL	at MIN	12.67	100%	12.67
Marvin Harrison	IND	at JAX	12.33	100%	12.33
Chad Ocho Cinco	CIN	at CLE	12.33	100%	12.33
Rashied Davis	CHI	GB	12.33	100%	12.33
Anthony Gonzalez	IND	at JAX	12.00	100%	12.00
Vincent Jackson	SD	at TB	12.00	100%	12.00
Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	KC	11.67	100%	11.67
Sidney Rice	MIN	ATL	11.67	100%	11.67
Dennis Northcutt	JAX	IND	11.67	100%	11.67
Koren Robinson	SEA	NYJ	11.67	100%	11.67
Josh Morgan	SF	at STL	11.67	100%	11.67
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	at NYG	11.33	100%	11.33
Torry Holt	STL	SF	11.33	100%	11.33
Justin Gage	TEN	PIT	11.00	100%	11.00
Brandon Jones	TEN	PIT	11.00	100%	11.00
Bobby Wade	MIN	ATL	11.00	100%	11.00
Marty Booker	CHI	GB	10.67	100%	10.67
Devery Henderson	NO	at DET	10.67	100%	10.67
Jerheme Urban	ARI	at NE	10.33	100%	10.33
Chris Chambers	SD	at TB	10.33	100%	10.33
Devin Hester	CHI	GB	10.33	100%	10.33
Joey Galloway	TB	SD	10.33	100%	10.33
James Jones	GB	CHI	10.00	100%	10.00
Roy Williams	DAL	BAL	10.00	100%	10.00
Patrick Crayton	DAL	BAL	9.33	100%	9.33
Reggie Williams	JAX	IND	9.00	100%	9.00
Reggie Brown	PHI	at WAS	9.00	100%	9.00
Bryant Johnson	SF	at STL	8.67	100%	8.67
Hank Baskett	PHI	at WAS	8.67	100%	8.67
Nate Washington	PIT	at TEN	8.33	100%	8.33
Brandon Stokley	DEN	BUF	8.00	100%	8.00
Arnaz Battle	SF	at STL	7.67	100%	7.67
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	PHI	7.00	100%	7.00
Jerry Porter	JAX	IND	7.00	100%	7.00

Start: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (Rank: 17.67) - A lot of fantasy owners have been frustrated on whether or not to start this guy many weeks. True he has had two terrible weeks since coming back, but he has had 4 double digit fantasy weeks as well. He has led the team in targets the last three weeks. In one of those bad weeks, he led in targets, and had a few big plays called back and called just out of bounds. Against the Lions he should show why he was drafted so early in many leagues.

Sit: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins (Rank: 13.67) - On the surface he appears to be having a decent year, or does he? His scores and big games have come against the Giants, Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, Lions, Browns, and Bengals. Despite week 1 against the Giants, Moss has done fairly little against good defenses and made for good fantasy days against poor defenses. This week he faces Philadelphia. They have a decent defense, are tough against fantasy wide receivers, and… oh yeah… held Santana Moss without a catch the first time they played.

Tight Ends	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Jason Witten	DAL	BAL	18.33	100%	18.33
Dallas Clark	IND	at JAX	18.00	100%	18.00
Tony Gonzalez	KC	MIA	17.67	100%	17.67
Dustin Keller	NYJ	at SEA	16.67	100%	16.67
Zach Miller	OAK	HOU	16.00	100%	16.00
John Carlson	SEA	NYJ	15.67	100%	15.67
Antonio Gates	SD	at TB	15.33	100%	15.33
Owen Daniels	HOU	at OAK	15.00	100%	15.00
Tony Scheffler	DEN	BUF	14.67	100%	14.67
Greg Olsen	CHI	GB	14.67	100%	14.67
Kevin Boss	NYG	CAR	14.67	100%	14.67
Heath Miller	PIT	at TEN	14.67	100%	14.67
Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	ATL	13.33	100%	13.33
Chris Cooley	WAS	PHI	13.33	100%	13.33
Anthony Fasano	MIA	KC	13.00	100%	13.00
David Martin	MIA	KC	12.67	100%	12.67
Donald Lee	GB	CHI	12.00	100%	12.00
Jeremy Shockey	NO	at DET	11.67	100%	11.67
Billy Miller	NO	at DET	11.33	100%	11.33
L.J. Smith	PHI	at WAS	11.33	100%	11.33
Bo Scaife	TEN	PIT	11.00	100%	11.00
Ben Watson	NE	ARI	10.33	100%	10.33
Todd Heap	BAL	at DAL	9.67	100%	9.67
Vernon Davis	SF	at STL	9.67	100%	9.67
Marcedes Lewis	JAX	IND	8.33	100%	8.33
Desmond Clark	CHI	GB	8.33	100%	8.33
Robert Royal	BUF	at DEN	8.00	100%	8.00
Brent Celek	PHI	at WAS	7.00	100%	7.00
Alge Crumpler	TEN	PIT	6.33	100%	6.33
Alex Smith	TB	SD	5.67	100%	5.67
Dante Rosario	CAR	at NYG	5.00	100%	5.00
Kellen Winslow	CLE	CIN	4.67	37%	1.71

Start: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (Rank: 16.67) - Favre loves his pass catching tight ends. Mix that with a matchup against one of the leagues worst pass defenses and it makes for a pretty safe start. What a great end of the year pickup Dustin Keller has been for fantasy teams going into and during the fantasy playoffs.

Sit: Any tight end in the Pittsburgh/Titans game (Rank: various) - Neither the Titans or Steelers give up many points to tight ends and neither team utilizes the tight end all that much in their offense. This game also figures to fairly low scoring leaving few chances for scores.

Kickers	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Nick Folk	DAL	BAL	18.00	100%	18.00
Rob Bironas	TEN	PIT	17.00	100%	17.00
Adam Vinatieri	IND	at JAX	17.00	100%	17.00
Matt Bryant	TB	SD	17.00	100%	17.00
Garrett Hartley	NO	at DET	16.67	100%	16.67
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	ARI	16.67	100%	16.67
Robbie Gould	CHI	GB	16.33	100%	16.33
Ryan Longwell	MIN	ATL	16.33	100%	16.33
Jeff Reed	PIT	at TEN	16.33	100%	16.33
David Akers	PHI	at WAS	16.00	100%	16.00
Jason Elam	ATL	at MIN	16.00	100%	16.00
Rian Lindell	BUF	at DEN	15.67	100%	15.67
John Kasay	CAR	at NYG	15.67	100%	15.67
Mason Crosby	GB	CHI	15.67	100%	15.67
Kris Brown	HOU	at OAK	15.67	100%	15.67
John Carney	NYG	CAR	15.33	100%	15.33
Matt Stover	BAL	at DAL	15.00	100%	15.00
Matt Prater	DEN	BUF	15.00	100%	15.00
Neil Rackers	ARI	at NE	15.00	100%	15.00
Dan Carpenter	MIA	KC	15.00	100%	15.00
Nate Kaeding	SD	at TB	15.00	100%	15.00
Phil Dawson	CLE	CIN	14.67	100%	14.67
Joe Nedney	SF	at STL	14.67	100%	14.67
Olindo Mare	SEA	NYJ	14.00	100%	14.00
Josh Scobee	JAX	IND	14.00	100%	14.00
Shaun Suisham	WAS	PHI	13.33	100%	13.33
Josh Brown	STL	SF	13.00	100%	13.00
Jason Hanson	DET	NO	12.67	100%	12.67
Shayne Graham	CIN	at CLE	12.33	100%	12.33
Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	HOU	12.00	100%	12.00
Connor Barth	KC	MIA	11.00	100%	11.00

Start: Rob Bironas, Tennessee Titans (Rank: 17.00) - Although the Steelers don’t give up much to kickers, Bironas can hit from ridiculous lengths and has been solid the last two years. I expect Tennessee to get down the field just enough for a few field goals and a decent fantasy game out of Bironas.

Sit: Phil Dawson, Cleveland Browns (Rank: 14.67) - Oh how times have changed, a year ago Phil Dawson was a top kicker and the Browns had no trouble getting in his range. This year the Browns don’t even have half the offense they did last year and aren’t getting many scoring opportunities for Dawson.

Defense	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Tennessee Titans	TEN	PIT	16.67	100%	16.67
Indianapolis Colts	IND	at JAX	16.00	100%	16.00
Baltimore Ravens	BAL	at DAL	16.00	100%	16.00
Dallas Cowboys	DAL	BAL	16.00	100%	16.00
Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT	at TEN	16.00	100%	16.00
New York Giants	NYG	CAR	15.67	100%	15.67
Miami Dolphins	MIA	KC	15.67	100%	15.67
Minnesota Vikings	MIN	ATL	15.67	100%	15.67
New York Jets	NYJ	at SEA	15.67	100%	15.67
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB	SD	15.33	100%	15.33
Chicago Bears	CHI	GB	15.00	100%	15.00
Green Bay Packers	GB	CHI	14.67	100%	14.67
New England Patriots	NE	ARI	14.67	100%	14.67
Arizona Cardinals	ARI	at NE	14.33	100%	14.33
Philadelphia Eagles	PHI	at WAS	14.00	100%	14.00
San Diego Chargers	SD	at TB	13.00	100%	13.00
Buffalo Bills	BUF	at DEN	13.00	100%	13.00
Houston Texans	HOU	at OAK	13.00	100%	13.00
Carolina Panthers	CAR	at NYG	12.67	100%	12.67
New Orleans Saints	NO	at DET	12.33	100%	12.33
Denver Broncos	DEN	BUF	12.33	100%	12.33
Atlanta Falcons	ATL	at MIN	12.00	100%	12.00
Washington Redskins	WAS	PHI	12.00	100%	12.00
Seattle Seahawks	SEA	NYJ	11.33	100%	11.33
Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX	IND	10.67	100%	10.67
San Francisco 49ers	SF	at STL	10.67	100%	10.67
Cleveland Browns	CLE	CIN	9.67	100%	9.67
St. Louis Rams	STL	SF	9.67	100%	9.67
Kansas City Chiefs	KC	MIA	9.33	100%	9.33
Oakland Raiders	OAK	HOU	9.33	100%	9.33
Cincinnati Bengals	CIN	at CLE	8.67	100%	8.67
Detroit Lions	DET	NO	5.00	100%	5.00

Start: Tennesee Titans (Rank: 16.67) - Unlike their counterpart this week, the Steelers allow quite a few fantasy points to opposing defenses. They have given up 44 sacks, 20 turnovers, a touchdown, and 2 safeties. The Titans are a high scoring fantasy defense as it is and they get a pretty favorable matchup as far as fantasy defenses go.

Sit: Pittsburgh Steelers (Rank: 16.00) - They get a high ranking here, but I don’t agree with it. The Steelers have been studs this year, however playing the Titans is a death trap for fantasy defenses. The Titans have allowed 25 fantasy points to defenses this year. That’s 25 total points in 14 weeks! No team has scored more than 3 fantasy points against them. They have allowed a league low 8 sacks, which is where the Steelers defense racks up their fantasy points. Don’t expect typical fantasy numbers from the Steelers this week.

 
Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: Dolfin99, utility-hook, and MadasLives911 who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.

(24 votes, average: 3.54 out of 5)  Loading ... Questions or comments for Scott? Post them in the Cafe Forums! Want to see your own fantasy wisdom published? Check out the Cafe's Pencil & Paper section!